The War to End All Wars Part 2: House of Cards
Throughout Europe tensions decrease considerably as leaders call for the proper observation of the Austro-Russian War in the name of European peace. This is the first time that the Agreement has been tested in a conflict between two Great Powers, and many are awaiting the outcome. However calm they may appear, the nations of Europe are very nervous about the Austro-Russian War. The Entente Powers are concerned that Austria-Hungary will lose the war, tilting the balance of power even more than before. Bulgaria has some inclination to invade Serbia, gaining back its Second Balkan War concessions, but is holding back from breaking the fragile containment of the war. The Alliance Powers are concerned that Russia will take large concessions from Austria-Hungary and completely disrupt the balance of power in the Balkans. The Italians are worried that Serbia may take Dalmatia or Bosnia-Herzegovina and become a rival in the Adriatic. General opinion does not bode well for the Dual Monarchy.
By August 21st, none of the armies of Serbia, Austria-Hungary or Russia are fully prepared for operations, as the generals on both sides plan the coming campaign. The war becomes known as the Serbian War by the press [1], an altogether original name. Only minor border skirmishes occur, along with bombardments of towns on both borders as the armies of the two Eastern European empires slowly organize their forces.
Meanwhile, the Kaiser has been impressed with the popularity of Czar Nicholas' championing of Serbian independence. Kaiser Wilhelm has also seen the sanctity given to the confinement of the Austro-Russian War, and believes that this would be a perfect opportunity to take advantage of the ailing Dual Monarchy. Discussions with Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg are moderately supportive, especially because of the legitimacy of the Russian cause in the war, in the name of independence. The Reich Chancellor believes that Germany can enter the war on one front only if tact and caution are used. Once Austria-Hungary invades Serbia, which is expected to be within days, the German Empire can enter the conflict in the name of national self-determination, giving the Kaiser some prestige in his obsession for international respect, and added territorial gains for Germany to block Russian advances [2].
On August 24th, Austria-Hungary invades Serbia on a long front. Field Marshal Conrad intends to conquer Serbia as quickly as possible before Russian armies are ready to attack. The Minimalgruppe Balkan of eighteen divisions crosses the Danube early on the 24th, and attacks defending Serbians after Austrian gunboats secure the rivers. This army group, led by General Oskar Potiorek, reaches the outskirts of Belgrade by the end of the day. The Serbian Army knows that it must hold out until Russian armies are ready to attack, and according to war plans, decides to fight to the last building in its capital. The Fifth and Sixth Armies, both of 150,000 cross the border at Preboj and Smederevo respectively, and make modest gains. All of the Serbian forces are at Belgrade, waiting for confirmation of Austrian strategic plans.
Kaiser Wilhelm II performs a rousing speech in the Reichstag denouncing the invasion on the 25th, and he issues a warning to Austria-Hungary that they withdraw from Serbian territory, and that the German Empire will defend Serbian independence as well. Russian diplomats publicly tell the Foreign Minister to stay out of the war, but the Kaiser is insistent on becoming involved in what he sees as a short conflict. Relations cool dramatically between the two nations, as Bethmann-Hollweg and the Kaiser are embarrassed by one of their closest allies.
France agrees to support Austria-Hungary in the event of war with Germany. Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Szogyeny informs the German ambassador that Austria-Hungary will continue to act in its campaign to capture the assassins. After considering the Russian and French responses to the announcement , Kaiser Wilhelm decides to back down once again from the threat of a general war. [3]
On August 27th, Russian forces enter Galicia with the First and Second Armies of 300,000 men. The First and Third Armies of 280,000 each by the Austro-Hungarians counter these forces. Field Marshal von Hotzendorff, now considering Germany as a probable threat, decides to transfer the Second Army to Vienna and places the Fifth and Sixth Armies on standby in case of German attack. Leaders throughout Europe applaud Germany for honoring its treaty agreements by staying out of the war. However, the German General Staff dusts off their old war plans against Austria-Hungary anyway.
Serbian General Radomir Putnik, one of the most experienced generals in the small Serbian army, takes command in Belgrade. With German support absent for the time being, and Russia moving very slowly [4], the Austrians are able to concentrate on the Serbian border. King Peter transfers the government out of Belgrade in response to the situation on August 27th. Twenty-eight Austro-Hungarian divisions face the small but fierce Serbian Army at the onset of the new war, and all eyes are on the Russians.
[2] Kaiser Wilhelm was a megalomaniac obsessed with the opinion other countries had of him. It suits his personality perfectly to jump into a situation thinking only of the short-term benefits such as Austrian territory and intervention on the side of a small nation's independence, rather than the possible consequences.
[3] Kaiser Wilhelm was more willing to frighten others into conceding to Germany than actually fighting. By all accounts, the Kaiser was frightened to death of a general war, and I believe he would stop if given the chance.
[4] The Russians were prompted to act quickly by the French in OTL. The Triple Alliance is much stronger in ATL, and there would not be any desperate pleas for Russia to mobilize urgently. Therefore, the Russians would not have ascribed to �lan, and Russian war plans would have differed accordingly from OTL.