The War to End All Wars Part 1: Bodies in Motion
After weeks of Austro-Hungarian meddling in Serbian internal affairs, Prime Minister Pasic�s Radical government fell and was replaced by a Nationalist one headed by newly-elected Draban Sandzak. Austria-Hungary has issued an ultimatum demanding the extradition of escaped assassin Gavrilo Princip[1], but the Serbian government has been unable to apprehend the criminal. Sandzak is in the influence of the military [2], and in anticipation of an invasion by Austria-Hungary, has issued a Stanje Bliskog Napada, (Condition of Imminent Attack), along with mobilization of its armed forces on August 1st.
6:39 PM August 1st, 1914
The Hofburg, Vienna, Austria-Hungary
Austrian Prime Minister Count Leopold von Berchtold arrives in his coach at the feet of the steps in front of the great imperial palace. He enters the building, fellow ministers accompany him, and there is a profound feeling of nervous anticipation in the air as he proceeds to the aged Emperor�s quarters. Servants open the large doors to the room overlooking the Swiss Court.
�Your Majesty,� Berchtold announces, �the conspirators to your nephew�s death remain in asylum in Serbia, and they have mobilized their army in defense of their dastardly and dishonorable deeds. We are prepared to meet this threat to our south with our own military forces at our disposal, and we intend to bring the fugitive to justice. All that remains to be done is your signing of the mobilization order so that we may conduct a defense of our borders from an immediate Serbian attack.�
Emperor Franz Josef, approaching 84, looks up from his chair, and coughs. �It is with the heart of a father who has outlived his son that I say this. I deeply abhor the thought of sending our young men into war, especially against such an obviously inferior nation, and the initiating of a war of conquest. If they have attacked us, I will sign the order, but I must refrain from endorsing it otherwise.� �They have attacked your nephew, our police forces and our prestige, and much worse is to come. If we are not prepared, then even more young men will die.� Berchtold says. �Then, I will sign,� replies Emperor Franz Josef, with a tone of despair.
Austria Hungary mobilizes its army for war on the night of August 1st, and the next day, Russia enters a pre-mobilization phase. Along with that, Field Marshal Conrad informed Berchtold that the army will not be prepared for invasion until the 22nd. In Rome, after a month-long hiatus, the ambassadors to the Second Roman Conference are recalled back to their respective nations, and the conference is ended. Hopes for a united and peaceful Europe are destroyed as a chilly air circulates throughout the continent.
Arnaud begins planning with General Di Amicis and Emperor Humbert possible courses of action in the coming war on the night of the 2nd. The war appears as if it will be limited to Russia, Austria-Hungary and Serbia by the terms of the Roman Agreement. The three are concerned about the terms of a Russian victory, and they believe that they may be against the interests of Italy. Arnaud has worked very hard to get the Roman Agreement signed, and is hopeful that peace will last. Arnaud advises neutrality in the current situation, and that they tread carefully in subsequent days. The Emperor and Di Amicis are more jingoistic, and the three agree to stay uninvolved until the situation changes. Later the next day, the 68-year old Francisco di Arnaud receives word from his personal physician that the mole on his neck was cancerous, and has spread. His physician believes Arnaud has only four months to live at best. He decides to keep his illness to himself until the nation is firmly set into the path of his design.
On the 4th, Austria-Hungary issues a declaration of war via telegram to Belgrade, and the shelling of Belgrade is commenced immediately after the declaration of war at 11:00 AM. When word of the declaration of war is heard in St. Petersburg, along with a Serbian request for aid, the Czar orders a partial mobilization of the army. The Serbians officially ask Russia to be their Assisting Power, and the Russians declare war on Austria-Hungary.
Czar Nicholas II issues a letter to all of the nations in Europe proclaiming, �Austria-Hungary has embarked on a war of conquest against the small nation of Serbia with the intent of oppressing its people�s right to independence. Time and again, the Dual Monarchy has shown itself intent on dominating the Balkans and suppressing the Slavic peoples self-determination, and this time they have crossed the line. Serbia has requested the assistance of the Russian Empire in its brave defense of its sovereignty, and I have accepted their appeal. I hereby invoke Article 7 of the Roman Agreement, requesting that all signing powers observe the terms specified in the name of independence and peace in Europe. The Russian Empire neither requests nor requires the assistance of any of its allies, and I insist that all nations stay out of this purely Austro-Russian war. Any involvement by other nations will be a breach of the Agreement and will interfere in Russia�s duty to preserve the independence of Serbia from foreign aggression.�
Throughout Europe tensions decrease considerably as leaders call for the proper observation of the Austro-Russian War in the name of European peace.
Notes
[1] In OTL, Austria-Hungary was significantly stronger in the Eastern Balkans because of a de jure alliance with Italy, fewer military defeats, and the lack of complete encirclement. In ATL, none of these are present. Nationalist and terrorist groups like the Black Hand and Greater Serbia have more influence and range, therefore more of the conspirators would have escaped to Serbia.
[2] In OTL, the Serbian government was engaged in a power struggle between the Radicals and the military, who support the Nationalists. The escape of one of the two actual assassins caused the Austrians to trample over the appeasing Pasic's government, and this led to a shift in the populace in favor of the nationalists.
[3] The Russian Government believes that it can defeat Austria-Hungary singlehandedly and wants to aquire as much Balkan territory as possible. The Roman Agreement is a convienient excuse to keep Germany and especially Italy out of the war. The consequences of this action may return later.