2004 - 05 CDFL Preview

The 2004-2005 CDFL draft has came and went. Now teams will begin their quest for the championship, for some the dream might already be over. In my post-draft review, I have examined each of the 16 teams and attempted to compare them to each other, and in reviewing the season�s schedule, come up with my predictions for the upcoming season.

For my comparisons, I looked at the starting lineups for each team. Keep in mind that the team defense is not taken into account due to the difficulty of judging a defense. For each team, I looked at what I projected to be the team�s starters and used Lindy�s Fantasy Football grading system to judge the players. Also remember that this is based on my projected starters. If you use different starters, that would alter the outcome, as would bye weeks. As an example, Wallachia�s starting quarterback Dante Culpepper has a grade of 4.6 (more of the grades below). When Culpepper is off, most likely Wallachia will turn to Carson Palmer who has a grade of 1.8. That�s a big difference of 2.8 points. Keep in mind that this isn�t points per game � Palmer would not represent a drop of 2.8 points per game � it is a grading scale that rates the quality of the player. Below is the chart of what these points reference:

5.0: Franchise Player - He�s the man. Draft him first and build your team around him.
4.0: Fantasy Stud - He�s all that. Grab him in the second or third round and expect big numbers
3.0: Solid Starter - He�s steady Eddie. Take him in the middle rounds and live with consistent results.
2.0: Average Starter : He�s just another guy. Draft him late and hope for the best.
1.0: Marginal Player : He�s a waste of time. Forget about it.

When we look at the 2.8 difference between Culpepper and Palmer, you will see that that takes a fantasy stud down to just below an average starter. Almost an entire player is lost in the switch. Another thing that is taken into account is a rookie is an unknown commodity. Most of them are rated average � marginal because we basically don�t know yet how they will perform. In the case of the Hayashi Silver Dragons, both starting running backs are rookies. This gives them a low score for now until they actually perform in a game. These players could outperform expectations as did Anquan Boldwin last year, or they could be a bust.

After the comparison of each team�s lineup was calculated and the schedule was compared head to head, the league basically breaks downs into five echelons. The individual breakdowns of each team can be found on the team preview page of CDFL Insider. Some of the results were surprising and one or two even pain me to repeat aloud.

Tier 5 of the league consists mostly of newer teams: Sexy Mama69, Moscow, Louiseville, Martins Ferry and surprisingly Alvada compose this portion of the league. These teams are close in overall grade, with an approximate total grade of 23.0 points. I estimate these teams can expect 2-3 wins this season.

Tier 4 contains just two teams � North Coast and Tempe. These teams rate higher than the bottom tier � with an average score of 24.5 and I expect 5-6 wins from this bracket. Both teams have some unknowns which could propel them higher, but in the case of Tempe, only one team defense might come back to haunt them during their defenses bye week.

Tier 3 is where we get into playoff contention teams. Wallachia, Apex and Cleveland should be close to each other all year. I expect these teams to play .500 ball and I project them all to finish with a 7-7 record. The 7th & 8th seed for the playoffs will be found here, so overall points might come into play at season�s end. I do see two of these teams advancing and one staying home. The overall grade here is 25.3.

Tier 2 is definite playoff material. We are getting into the top teams of the league � teams with a good starting lineup. Lineups capable of putting up big points per game. Three teams will make up this rung of the league: Hayashi, Wilmywood and Banzai. Average grade in this tier is 26 � with Hayashi having 27.1 and Banzai barely cresting into this tier with a 25.5. These teams should win 9 � 10 games this year.

Tier 1 � this is where it really becomes difficult for me. I have no problem stating that the Central Ohio Snails have turned things around. It was just 2 � 3 seasons ago that the Snails and Neersters were facing each other in the Trentini Cup game to determine the worst team in the league. Last year the Snails made it to the Shaker Bowl and finished in second place. This year, the Snails have an opportunity to do even better as they have the league�s highest overall grade with 29.3. The Snails can easily win 11 � 12 games this season with the starting lineup they have put together. Closely following the Snails with a rating of 29.2 is the Jackson Neersters. The first dynasty of the CDFL appears to have put together a successful draft and has the possibility, dare I say, of winning every game. Not only do the Neersters have a good starting lineup, but also their reserves are descent enough to hold their own. When you compare a rating of 29.2 against a rating from tier 1 at 22.3 in Moscow, the difference of 6.9 is equivalent of two additional fantasy studs. That�s big time. If there is anyone cockier than Greg Neer, it is Jerry Starlin. I had to check and re-check the numbers on the Buckeye Beasts for accuracy. The Beasts starters project out to 29.0 � close enough to the Snails and Neersters for tops in the league and far enough away from the next highest in Hayashi�s 27.1 to state that, baring significant injuries, the Beasts could easily win 12 games this season and play for the league championship. Perhaps last week�s comments about the Beasts being on top in the leader board would not reoccur in our lifetimes was a bit premature.

In the individual team previews, you will find the breakdown of each team�s starting lineup projections, the depth chart, strengths and weakness as well as their draft grade. There is still time for improvement or failure regardless of the pre-season predictions. Last season I expected the Shakers to go 14-0 and the Horned Dogs to finish 13-1. Both teams finished as the two lowest teams in the division. Teams that weren�t expected to contend made the playoffs. It comes down to injuries, backups in the bye weeks, players outdoing expectations and the waiver wire. Still time for free agents and trades before the season begins, so don�t give up in finding ways to reduce the weakness and improve upon the strengths. This is sure to be the most competitive season with 16 teams and the draft increasing in significance. Like Tempe and Alvada found out, if you only take 1 defense and someone takes 3, there are none left.

Good luck to everyone this season. Feel free to email your comments to [email protected]



Click on a team to check out the pre-season preview:

Alvada Horned Dogs
Apex Avengers
Banzai Bombers
Buckeye Beasts
Hayashi Silver Dragons
Jackson Neersters
Martins Ferry Steelers
Moscow Maulers
North Coast Shakers
Wilmywood Digression
Central Ohio Snails
Tempe Tantrums
Wallachia Raiders
Cleveland Steamers
Sexy Mama 69
Louiesville Losers