Zeng Qinghong deserves some special mention here, though he is over 60 years old (62 in 2001). He is not a permanent member of the Political Bureau, but became an alternate member in 1997, and is a Secretary (listed seventh among seven in the officially published order) on the Secretariat of the 15^th Party Central Committee. He is also director of the Party Central Committee Organization Department, which has him overseeing personnel matters within the Party, a key position.

But his potential future power comes more from his association with China’s principal leader, Jiang Zemin. He is widely recognized as a close associate and political strategist for Jiang’s, and a part of the "Shanghai Clique", having risen to vice-party chief in Shanghai. Importantly, he has been credited with conceiving the "Three Represents", Jiang Zemin’s much-touted contribution to the Chinese Communist Party theoretical canon. Zeng regularly travels with Jiang at home and abroad, and accompanied the Chinese president to the United States as his "chief of staff" during the fall 1997 U.S.-China summit.

For these reasons, all eyes have been on him to achieve ever-higher status in the Chinese political leadership. Nevertheless, Jiang has unsuccessfully tried three straight times – most recently in September 2001 – to have Zeng promoted to full membership on the Political Bureau. As long as Jiang Zemin retains his influence, Zeng will remain an important figure to watch and may gain a full seat on the Political Bureau in 2002.

Even when the sun goes down, Jiang Zemin has a shadow. Almost constantly at the president's side, Zeng is Jiang's right-hand -- and hatchet -- man, in charge of organizing Communist Party and government personnel. Despised, as the "head eunuch" of Zhongnanhai by anti-Jiang apparatchiks, Zeng is a dark horse who could even succeed his mentor should heir apparent Hu Jintao falter.  

Zeng is obviously going to have Jiang Zemin's full support, who wants to place Zeng on the politburo so as to retain as much influence as possible after retirement.  Zeng could also take over Hu Jintao's current position as director of the Central Party School.  This would provide him the opportunity to begin undermining Hu's at his former position and possibly make a run for the stop spot.   

Prediction: Vice President & Politburo Standing Committee Member