Published answer to the Dune contest (The General v16#6)
From: The General volume 17 number 1:
The key to the Guild winning in contest no. 94 is the ability to take his turn at any time. If he waits until his turn occurs in the regular order of play, he will probably find every stronghold but Habbanya Ridge Sietch (HRS) occupied by two other players. He has lost his chance to win even before he starts. If he takes his turn at the beginning of the phase, he ensures that his forces will occupy three strongholds.
His strongest move would be to move the eight token force in Imperial Basin to Arrakeen and ship six tokens from HRS to Carthag. In the next player turn, the Atreides player can move his force from Arrakeen to Carthag. The maximum strength of the Guild battle plan would be ten: A 5 leader, five tokens and five spice. The sixth token must be kept aside to keep control of the stronghold. Atreides can devise a battle plan of ten also: a 4 leader, eight tokens and four spice, but because Guild took his turn first, he wins all ties. Neither players will lose leaders as Atreides prescience will always allow him to select the proper defence.
Harkonnen can move forces into Carthag. His maximum battle plan would be a 4 leader, four tokens and four spice. The Guild can play a 3 leader, five tokens and three spice for a total of seven. If the Guild plays poison he guarantees the Harkonnen leader's death (*note from Boycat - designer of contest must have intended for Harkonnen not to have had snooper in hand) and reduce his total by four. The Harkonnen can eliminate the Guild leader with his projectile, reducing the Guild total to four, Guild winning the tie.
How did the Guild get the eleven spice needed to ship tokens to Carthag and win two battles? The trick here is to acquire spice by killing your own and the opponent leaders while winning battles. In the Harkonnen battle you can only guarantee getting three spice from your own leader loss as the Harkonnen leader can prevent giving you spice by playing a Cheap Hero. Unfortunately you use your initial allotment of three spice to pay for your shipment to Carthag.
Here is the second trick to the puzzle. If you ship the five tokens from your reserve into Carthag (or Arrakeen for that matter) the Atreides can defeat you or force you to use all your tokens in battle which accomplishes the same thing. You must have a minimum of six tokens in one and eight in the other. The only way to get six tokens to Carthag would be to ship them from HRS. On the surface this would seem suicidal as the Guild must win in HRS, but a timely played Karama card prevents the Bene Gesserit from shipping reinforcements to her one token in the Sietch. The Guild just needs to match the one token to win. His battle plan is the 1 strength leader, no tokens and no spice. The BG Voice cannot prevent the Guild from playing both weapons, and since she has no defence, either Guild weapon will knock off her 5 leader. This guarantees a Guild victory and provides two more spice than is needed to defeat the Harkonnens. Victory over Harkonnen gives the Guild three more spice, which, with the two left over from the BG battle gives Guild the five he needs to defeat Atreides and win the game.
The situation above is not the only one that could happen. Guild can adapt to all other moves made against it. As an alternative, the Atreides stays put and makes no shipments. Since he has equal strength in both Carthag and Arrakeen, his best battle strength is eight. The Guild is unable to predict where Atreides will commit his spice and best leader so he must be able to match eight in both strongholds. If he uses his 3 leader with a seven token force he must use three spice to reach eight. If he uses his 5 leader with a five token force he needs only one spice to reach eight. The five spice gained from the BG more than satisfies this spice need. For any Atreides or Harkonnen shipment, what they gain in token strength they lose in spice. The shipments will not improve the battle plan. (*note from Boycat - this assumes that spice is not traded between players)
GUILD MOVE
1. Ship 6 tokens from HRS to Carthag
2. Move 8 tokens from Imperial Basin to Arrakeen
End move with 1 token in HRS.
BATTLE PLANS
1. HRS: dial 0, use Guild Representative, use whichever weapon is not Voiced, snooper, 0 spice
2. Carthag: dial 5, use Staban Tuek, play either weapon, snooper, 3 spice
3. Arrakeen: dial 7, use Master Bewt, play poison, 5 spice
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