Slutsatser 2003:
- Benner-Fibonaci som tydligt förutsagt tidigare toppar/bottnar pekar ut 2003 som botten av nedgången från år 2000.
- Även Prechter i sin "bestseller: At the Crest of the Tidal Wave" pekar ut 2003 som KLART troligast år för botten enligt Elliot vågberäkning.
- quote page 75: ...particularly 2003 as probable year for the first major bottom. Streghtening these dates further, 2003 corresponds to smaller cycle low...The year 2003 may be further strengthenedas a target year for a major low by an analogy to the 1921-1932 experience. Wave V of (III) from 1921 to 1929 lasted 8 yeears, and wave V of (V) from 1974 to 1995 will have lasted 21 years, or 2.618 times as long. The 1929-1932 bear market lasted .382 times as long as the preceeding wave V, or 3 years. The bear market beginning in 1995 might also last .382 times as long as the preceding wave V and 2.618 times as long as 1929-1932, or 8 years. From 1995, this duration would project a low in 2003....a low at that time could mark the end of the entire Grand Supercycle bear market or only wave (A). The 1932 low was both the end of a Supercycle bear market (in dollar terms) and the end of Cycle wave A (in infaltion-adjusted terms).
To conclude, a major low is still expected to fall within our long standing target time of 1998-2003 first suggested a dozen years ago in The Elliot Wave Theorist. The most strongly indicated specific year is 2003.
Detta ovan citerade jag 10 Nov. 2002, mitt i den värsta nedgången i Stockholmsbörsens historia!
Idag Feb 2005, med facit (diagrammet) i hand kan vi göra bokslut för prognoserna om 2003.
En klar dubbelbotten i disgrammet, med var sin sida om årskiftet 2003!
Notera hur brant nedgången är jämfört med den klara men inte så branta uppgången efter mars 2003!
Om vi nu riktar blickarna framåt...kommer samma "Benner-Fibonaci"-prognos om stadig uppgång till år 2010 att hålla
...mindre nedgång 2011...
fortsatt upp till år 2021...
när en ny rejäl justering = ättestupan á la 2000-2003 tar vid!