THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
ON THE ROLE OF THE STATE IN EXPORT
EXPANSION IN SOUTH KOREA
Based on ADB Staff Paper 61 dated
February 1994. Many of the following are quotes from the article even though they do not have
quotation marks.
During the export
period 1962 to the early 1980s, though export-promotion was strongly
undertaken, most commodity prices---interest rates, exchange rates and wage rates---were
not able to change freely in response to market conditions of supply and demand
but were controlled by the government. Market disequilibria prevailed in the
economy. In this regard, it might be safe to say that Korea's export-led growth
(ELG) strategy did not necessarily involve a free market system with
equilibrium prices.
The 1994 ADB study
found that for most of the time before the mid-1980s, the Korean won had always
been overvalued in light of relative inflation between Korea and its major
trading partners[1]. The disadvantageous
effect on exports of the persistently overvalued exchange rate was partly or
completely offset by two kinds of government support for exports:
(i) ad hoc export promotion system
(ii) psychological encouragement by President Park
The South Korean
government provided an "assured" economic climate that is similar to
the "social climate" of Schumpeter in which creative, innovative
entrepreneurs receive high social prestige in addition to a high rate of income
(abstract section).
There were four
periods in the evolution of the Korean Economy:
(1) 1950s: The Period of Rehabilitation
(2) 1960s: The Period of Outward Orientation
(3) 1970s: The Period of Diversification
(4) 1980s: The Period of Structural Adjustment
During the Period of
Rehabilitation, 1950s:
Korea was then among the
poorest countries of the world. The primary concern then was rehabilitating the
infrastructure and manufacturing capacity that was virtually destroyed by the
Korean War (1950-1953). Primary industry and the services industry comprised
85% of total output. Services industry comprise 40-50%, mainly attributable to
a large number of skilled workers hidden in retail and other services that did
not require expertise. Primary industry output was 47.3% in 1953 with the
percentage being maintained until the mid-1950s and thereafter declining
slightly. More than 2/3 of exports were traditional products and primarily crude materials such as unprocessed
minerals.
During the Period of
Outward Orientation, 1960s:
The most salient feature
of the Development Plan was to regard exports as the locomotive of growth. The first
measure undertaken was the provision of tax and financial
incentives for exporters. The second measure (for promoting exports) was to devaluate the
Korean won by nearly 100%, from 130 won per US dollar to 255.77 won in
1964. Although the exchange rate of the
won moved from 65 won per US dollar to 130 won in 1961, the won had been at
that level for several years and eroded the international competitiveness of
Korean products, especially under an inflation rate averageing 18% during the
period 1961 to 1964. The third measure (1967) was the
creation of a favorable export environment by shifting the import control
system from a positive list system to a negative list system which lessen the
difficulties of exporters in importing necessary intermediate materials and
investment goods for producing goods for export. The third measure was the last
step towards the liberalization of imports. During the period, trade ratio (a
combined ratio of exports and imports as a percentage of GNP) rose sharply from
14% in 1962 to 31% in 1970. Meanwhile, the portion of primary industry in total
production decreased within the period. Composition of manufactures in exports
increased, mostly light industrial products such as textiles and footwear.
During the Period of
Diversification, 1970s:
It was in the 1970s that
the Korean economy experienced the most significant changes in all areas,
especially trade, industry, and finance. The changes can be characterized by
diversification of economies, especially industry and trade, together with
expansion of production and trade volume. First Measure: In 1972
government declared a repayment moratorium for debts of corporations from
unofficial financial markets and reduced the debt burden of corporations in the
process. Second Measure: development of heavy and chemical
industries. In the 1960s, light industry had grown rapidly, playing a key role
in boosting exports, generating employment and increasing national output.
Despite the advantages inherent in light industry, particularly its
labor-intensiveness, light industry also revealed two disadvantages. First,
it created a relatively small amount of value added because most items, such as
apparel, footwear and plywood, were heavily depended upon imported raw and
intermediate materials. Second, increased investments in light industry
expedited the import of capital goods, which aggravated the balance of
payments. To address the problems, the government promoted import substitution
for intermediate materials and capital goods, and eventually developed a new
source of exports on which Korea would rely. In 1973, the government announeced
the Heavy and Checmical Industry (HCI) Development Plan, which outlined the
need, scope, and implementation program for developing future strategic
industries, including shipbuilding, automobiles, steel products, machinery,
non-ferrous metals, and petro-chemicals. The government provided varied
incentives in finance, tax and tariff to the firms which initiated HCI
projects. As for financial incentives, the government established the National
Investment Fund which provided long-term loans to strategically selected heavy
and chemical industries. While the Fund was partly funded by government, much
of it was funded through a compulsory transfer of private deposits from the
commerical banking institutions to the Fund. Free entry to certain areas of
heavy and chemical industries was prohibited. High tariff barriers were set up
in order to protect the "infant" industries. Strong tax incentives
were given to firms which spent resources for training workers and for R&D
to strengthen production technology. As a result of the efforts to build the
HCI, the share of the heavy and checmical industry in the total output of the
manufacturing sector rose from 33% in 1970 to 50% in 1980. Exports, which in
the 1960s comprised light industrial products such as textiles and footwear, by
the 1970s were showing some HCI products (such as electronics, machinery,
ships, and iron and steel products) as important items. However, as a result of
the efforts to build the HCI, foreign debt increased leading to a sharp
increase in the debt service burden. Inflation was also high at 16-17% annually
in the 1970s.
The Korean economy exhibited many positive features in the
1970s, but on the other hand it also revealed severe problems, including high
inflation, a high degree of government intervention in economic operation, low
efficiency, and increasing foreign debt burden. It was a widely
accepted view that the main cause of those problems was the overlapping,
excessive, and inefficient investment in the HCI, under an interventionist
government policy. Most of the firms in the HCI was operating at production capacity
much below their full utilization, causing enormous business loss and heavy
debt-service burden. As the government began a bail-out of firms, it further
intervened in management of some firms. Under the circumstances, there arose a
strong demand for structural adjustment of the economy.
During the Period of
Sectoral Adjustment, 1980s:
The main thrust of the
demand was characterized by liberalization, deregulation, and
internationalization of the economy on the grounds that further heavy
government intervention would be neither desirable nor effective in the light
of the already sophisticated and large-sized Korean economy. It was further
argued that the production efficiency of the Korean economy should be raised by
having price mechanism play a principal role. In addition, pressure from foreign countries to open the Korean
markets mounted from the early 1980s.
DEREGULATION AND
INTERNATIONALIZATION OF THE ECONOMY The government took several important
steps toward deregulation and internationalization of the economy.
(i) First, to open domestic markets and to
stimulate competition in the economy, it reduced import barriers to a
considerable extent by lowering tariff rates and increasing the numbers of
importable items without any authority's approval. The average tariff rate was
down to 20% in 1985 from 39% in 1978, while the import liberalization ratio,
i.e., the percentage of the importable items without prior approval in the
total commodity items classified for custom use, rose from 68% in 1979 to 92%
in 1986.
(ii) Second, financial incentives to export
industries and the HCI were reduced dramatically to heigthen the
self-sustaining capability of these industries (policy-based loan occupied a substantial
portion of total domestic credit, reflecting a variety of financial incentive
systems provided to a wide range of industries including the export sector,
HCI, and small and medium industries. This brough a distorted allocation of
financial resources, impairing the independent operation of commercial banks
and preventing flexible monetary policy).
LIBERALIZATION OF THE
FINANCIAL SECTOR. Together with a drastic reduction of financial incentives,
liberalization of the financial sector was initiated through privatization of
the five commercial banks and the lowering of barriers against foreign banks'
entry into the Korean financial markets.
ROLE OF STABILIZATION. Another
important change in macroeconomic policies in the mid-1980s was to emphasize
stabilization of the economy, compared with the previous policy in the 1960s
and 1970s which had focused upon economic growth. Money supply, on
average, had kept a high growth rate in the 1970s, with this trend continuing
into the early 1980s (as reflected in Appendix Table A6 of the ADB Report).
However, the rate of growth in M2 sharply declined from 1983 onwards. In
addition, during 1983-1986, under an austerity program, government spending,
was cut, leading to a dramatically lowered budget deficit ratio as a percentage
of GDP. Along with the tight monetary and fiscal policy, inflation was reduced
from a double digit rate to less than 5% from 1983 onwards[2].
The structural
adjustment and stabilization efforts in the 1980s were thought to have been
successful. Since the mid-1980s, the Korean economy had demonstrated dramatic
price stability and huge surpluses in the current account, while maintaining
high-growth momentum (indicated in Appendix Table A7 of the ADB Report). This
is in view of the decades-long experience of high inflation rates and large
deficits in the current account since the 1960s. From 1986, exports began to
increase by about 30% per year, resulting in large trade surpluses. Several
factors accounted for these sharp increases in exports. First, a radical
appreciation of the Japanese yen occured in 1985, corresponding to the Plaza
Accord of the Group-7 countries. The appreciation played an important role in
improving the international competitiveness of certain Korean products (namely,
steel, cars, electronic consumer durables, and semi-conductors) which were
competing with Japanese products in the international markets. The second
factor was the improved quality of Korean manufactures, ascribed to
technological development, R&D efforts and government's support and
enthusiasm for the HCI in the 1980s. For the ADB report, last but most
important was the Korea's economic reforms, geared towards liberalization,
internationalization, and stabilization of the economy. These contributed to
the strengthening of the international competitiveness of Korean products
through stabilized price and enhanced efficiency.
Re Disequilibria in
Foreign Exchange and Financial Markets:
Financial Market. Before the mid-1980s,
all types of interest rates of banks and non-bank financial institutions were
determined by the Ministry of Finance or the Bank of Korea (Central Bank). By
the mid-1980s, liberalization had begun in a phased manner. The official
interest rate set by the monetary authorities was mostly lower than that of the
unofficial financial market, where the interest rate was determined by market
forces, giving a sign that the official rate was somewhere below an equilibrium
rate. Therefore, the official markets always faced excessive demand for funds,
causing a disequilibrium credit rationing by financial institutions.
Foreign Exchange Market. Korean adopted an exchange rate system in
which until 1980 foreign exchange rates were pegged to the US dollar. In
January 1980, a trade-weighted currency basket system was introduced. During the dollar-pegging
period, the exchange rate was determined by the monetary authority, being
reviewed and adjusted from time to time. Under the trade-weighted currency
basket system which was employed from January 1980 to March 1990, the exchange
rate was determined basically by the movements of currencies of major trading
partners such as the US, Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany. Only in March
1990 was a kind of free market exchange rate system introduced, though the
system still imposed a band within which the exchange rate could fluctuate in a
single day.
For most of the history
of the exchange rate system in Korea---until March 1990---the exchange rate was
determined not by market forces but by monetary authority or by movements of
the currencies of trade partners. The exchange rate did not reflect the
demand/supply situation. The Korean won was overvalued for most of the period
from 1962 to early 1980s[3].
Re Role of Government
in Export Promotion
The roles undertaken by
the Korean government can fall into the following categories:
(i) operating dand developing the economic
infrastructure---energy, transportation, and communication, etc.
(ii) developing and stimulating human resources
and people's aspirations
(iii) presenting medium and long-term targets for
economic developpment
(iv) promoting strategic industries, including
agriculture, small and medium industry, and key manufacturing sectors
(v) enhancing the productivity of the overall
economy---boosting the R&D efforts, modernizing production technology, and
disseminating information on domestic and foreign economies
What factors offset the
disadvantage associated with the persistently overvalued exchange rate while
encouraging Korean manufacturers to increase their sales of goods and services
to foreign markets?
(i) financial and tax incentives (until the
early 1980s)
(ii) psychological encouragement
[1]See
abstract section.
[2]The
high inflation rate, exceeding 20% per year in 1980 and 1981, was attributed to
several factors that includes not only the loose monetary/fiscal policy but also
the second oil shock in 1979 and its subsequent time-lagged inflationary
effects, and severely sluggish production in 1980 and 1981 in the wake of
political turmoil. By 1983, those exogenous disturbances had been significantly
stabilized.
[3]See
discussion in page 13-14 and Table 2 page 15 of the ADB Report.