Kajian Perencanaan Permintaan dan Penyediaan Energi di Wilayah Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak LEAP
(Study of Energy Supply-Demand Planning in Yogyakarta Special Region Province using Long-range Alternative Planning system (LEAP))

Abstract

     Energy demand is counted based on energy activity and energy intensity. The economy and population have a great effect on energy activity. The more increasing the economy and population growth the more increasing the energy activity. Energy supply is determined not only by the demand but also by resources, technology, policy and investment on energy.
     The research on energy planning in Yogyakarta Special Region Province is done using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) version 2004. The study of energy supply-demand is done for the future fifteen years as 2003 as the based year. Energy demand projection is calculated using interpolation and linear regression analysis on historical data of energy activity and energy intensity.
     The result shows that the final energy demand in Yogyakarta Special Region Province grows on the average of 6,7% per annum if the PDRB grows on the average of 4,6% per annum and 7,5% per annum if the PDRB grows on the average of 5,1% per annum. The Household energy demand sector is predicted to grow on the average of 5,4%-6,0% per annum, Industry 6,0%-6,7% per annum, Commercial 6,6%-7,4% per annum, and Transportation 7,5%-8,4% per annum. Based on the energy mix, the demand of gasoline is predicted to grow on the average of 7,8%-8,8% per annum, kerosene and LPG 3,9%-4,4% per annum, diesel oil 6,0%-6,9% per annum, industrial diesel oil (IDO) 4,7%-6,3% per annum, FO 4,5%-5,0% per annum, and electricity 8,5%-9,5% per annum.