9

The So-called `Asian Crisis'

(The Coming Trade War/World War

& Temporary Rise of the Neo-Classical Left)

The `Asian' crisis originated in the west, with the flood of speculative capital into the rising Asian export- based buffer states (in search of higher rates of profit).

When ultimately the capacity for expansion was exhausted with the saturation of western export markets (as a consequence of the aforementioned over- accumulation of capital/productive capacity in S/E/ Asia), this triggered the partial collapse of the buffer states (Thailand, S. Korea and more spectacularly Indonesia, a country with a narrow elite base and regional/geo pol/econ connections/weight in certain respects analogous to Tsarist Russia).

Asia will demonstrate to the world that this crisis is generally western in geo pol/econ conception (though global in effect), by devaluing in order to export to the west some of the worst effects of the crisis currently afflicting it.

The consequent currency devaluation (in the East - as a result of their currencies coming under pressure, due to market saturation in western export markets) causes:

Speculative flows of capital back to the west into so-called `safe haven' currencies.

Eg even more/ever increasingly away from real investment towards speculative investments (as explained in Vol I C3 &7).

A consequent swamping of western markets with cheaper imports.

Which in turn, undermines, catalyses, exacerbates the unfolding collapse of `safe haven' currencies into which this speculative capital is moving - as well as the speculative asset/share prices inflated in the preceding period.

This is the phenomenon of capital disappearing up its own arsehole, as elaborated in Vol I C3 &7 vis speculative investments, leading to an inevitable bursting of the bubble - and a global credit crunch - as the speculative bubble bursts. This in turn leads to global stagflation/hyper-inflation.

Inevitably, the geo pol/econ tensions that will arise from the devaluation and the permanent/terminal pol/econ collapse/decomposition will compel (in order for the pol/econ elites to retain control of the agenda) moves towards a trade war. And by consequential default, as it will be the only remaining policy option left to the elites to take (on the basis of their continuing hegemony), world war.

This of course, presupposes that the global/financiers regime is not overthrown.

We have studied how this can be accomplished by the new rev theory. But now we must examine both the potential and grave limitations of a linear revolutionary dialectic that the `Asian' crisis has thrown up.

Indonesia's (current) linear revolutionary potential is determined by its geo pol/econ positions and connections.

In Africa and Latin America (Brasil is a potential exception we shall examine more closely in Vol II of S. O. F.), states are based on neo colonial & semi colonial constructs.

Eg colonial (neo imperial) points of support enable the reconsolidation of a regime, when rebellion, through lack of geo pol/econ points of support (or room for manouevre), breaks down/peters out. This we see in Nigeria and also (against 3rd world variant fascism - which we shall analyse in Vol II) in Algeria.

What characterises these states as fully fledged neo colonial/semi colonial is not only the imperial connexion/econ relations (eg cash crop dependency etc), but related to their subordinate role (in the global division of labor), that their collapse is unable to bring anyone else down with them (eg creating a pol/econ backdraft). So by inertial default, the regime as a `police democracy' or even open dictatorship is reconsolidated.

But in Indonesia, the default on loans would catalyse the eventual collapse of the pacific rim/global pol/econ (& create a regional, possibly even global revolutionary backdraft).

And it is this regional/global pol/econ linkage between regional/global pol/econ states (as opposed to a neo colonial relationship between a comprador elite and imperial core) that determines that repression as a linear process will only serve to fuel regional/global rebellion (we shall analyse HOW/ what the core imperial elite can do to counter this threat later).

Eg the threat for geo military plutocracy is that with the pol/econ implosion of the Suharto regime, any legitimated political fraction that seeks to do the bidding of global finance, is threatened with being deposed. That the army because it is strong enough (at least for a period) will be forced by popular revolt, by default therefore, to depose all such fractions - and in the absence of a viable rev dem movement, execute a leftwing coup.

The critical factor in this process (the basis of the potential linear revolutionary dialectic), is the simultaneous destruction of the middle class (by the global pol/econ collapse) in the context of both the national economy and regionally/globally - preventing the stable consolidation of the national pol/econ regime, either as an independent national capitalist state, or as a comprador state connected to (and with its elite re-inforced by) a stable core pol/econ.

To remind ourselves, the key point is that the Indonesian state and people had been built up by its geo pol/econ connexions. But whilst Nigerian elite had been built up, its pol/econ and people rotted.

Therefore the army not seen (nor saw/sees itself) as an arbiter between global finance and people (unlike Indonesia) therefore there has been consolidated decomposition. Though there be NOW potential for Nigeria (citizens & soldiery, probably led by junior/middle ranking officers) to connect up with either/both western revolutionary OR the linear revolutionary dialectic we shall now examine.

We shall examine later why leftwing coups are not possible in the smaller (European) core states, Germany, France etc.

The key IMMEDIATE threat in Indonesia for imperialism (because of the static nature of classical laborist formations in Indonesia, inability to catalyse revolt at the core) is the army. The Q of controlling Indonesia (leastways in the period BEFORE the global econ implosion) reduces itself to HOW to regain control (for imperialism) of the Indonesian army.

Postcript September 9th 1999 (The Indonesian puppet show)

Ostensibly there is a plot to hold Indonesia together, by allowing E.Timorese to move forward to independance - in order to crush them - to intimidate other seccessionist movements (Aceh/ Irian Jaya etc) but it clearly cannot work.

Eg a coup plot (against Habibe/ Megawati Sukharno) would catalyse a 2nd popular uprising against the army/ destroy it completely as a political force capable of holding Indonesia together, leading ultimately to Indonesia's break up (especially as pro western elites incapable of holding Indonesia together).

This would prevent the danger (for military plutocratic core) of a leftwing coup creating a rev backdraft - a linear rev current destabilising the core elites (though such a movement would still need to be consolidated by a rev movement in Europe).

Q. WHO pushed Habibe's hand to allow E.Timor referendum?

Western loansharks/ strategists. FULL control of the strings lies in the hands of the western military plutocracy.

Postcript 17th September 1999

(Legitimated Colonialism

Indonesia, E.Timor & UN intervention)

We have seen that whilst NATO intervention in Kosovo had other strategic objectives, it helped to legitimate continuing USA presence in Europe.

The objective of the E.Timor intervention is to prevent a rev backdraft from a leftwing coup AND to (by) establish an East/ West stability pact under USA geo hegemony (as with Kosovo vis Europe, Asian states don't want to get heavily involved, but leave it to USA) to (try to) prevent Indonesia's break up (destabilising the entire region).

The key function of this intervention is to prevent Indonesia exercising its destiny as an independant state via a leftwing coup eg as this would lead to BOTH East/West regimes closing ranks & aiding & abetting the seccessionist carve up of Indonesia (the army ceases to have any potential as a radical force standing up to geo core elite & is forced to become/ eclipsed by ministry of interior forces).

So the core elite aids pseudo/ formal democracy, whilst backing internal repression within a pseudo legitimate construct (eg as post Marcos Phillipines).

E.Timor therefore, gave the core imperial elite both

A lever to bind Indonesia to the military plutocracy (also encouraged to prevent threatened leftwing takeover on the island in the 1970's) &

A foot in the door to re-assert (a legitimated) colonial control over Indonesia to contain the radical threat when the Suharto regime collapsed (while probably not their first choice, the break up of Indonesia & playing of of vassal states against each other may represent a manageable option for the western military plutocracy).

Though it is extremely doubtful that this pact will cause sufficient national demoralisation to arrest the growth of the Falun Gong (see Chapter 1) - whose eclipse of the CCP will lead to the collapse/ break up of China.

While the core imperial elite have effected a manouevre that would make Old Bony swoon, in apparently securing control of the geo strategic agenda of East Asia with a mere 8000 troops based in E. Timor & said impressive array of geo strategic levers, it is still not absolutely certain that imperialism can consolidate in Indonesia, given its weak appetite for body bags. So while very unlikely (pre global econ implosion) we must consider:

A Leftwing Coup In Indonesia & its Implications

This is very unlikely pre global econ implosion, because the Indonesian army would most likely have to defeat the core imperial forces explicitly for the right to commit murder in E. Timor (& IF so, this would so color/ brutalise the character of their regime GENERALLY, that it would IMMEDIATELY abort their potential popular power base), UNLESS a rev dem movement linked up with rev dem movement in the core states (which can ONLY be launched vis ripening of scenarios outlined in Chapter 1).

(So this will most likely be of more interest in illustrating the true strategic motives of the core imperial intervention than any immediate rev threat, though usefully illustrates our general approach to the anti colonial revolution).

Albeit with reservations, this would be supported by default by the masses. because they are looking for an element to take power for it, instead of structurally and substantively taking power themselves.

The first thing we noted is the regional/geo possibility for institutional momentum, as the process can feed of itself; eg catalysing slumps and correspondingly similar revolts/coups in the pacific rim (potentially more significant than that of a successful overthrow of Yeltsin in the 1993 stand-of would have occasioned).

But the next is a threat of descending into a USSR - type military bureaucratised econ and rapid decomposition/re-subordination to global finance; as a consequence of (aside from the aforementioned geo-institutional momentum) military bureaucratic hegemonic control of the agenda and incipient/corresponding nat sec state fear.

There be especially grave potential therefore, for an incipient Stalinist elite to retain control of the pol/econ agenda via the East Timor issue Eg whilst economically assaulting Indonesia, imperialism would (simaltaneously) exploit/highlight still continuing repression in east Timor (in which hegemonic army leaders heavily implicated). This operational linkage (by imperialism), would give the military leadership an opportunity to clamp down on independent neo classical left elements (dialectically, neo trotskyists), which in turn would further undermine the pol/econ.

And in the context of a pol/econ where the masses had not been actively pre-educated on a needs of sacrifices for reconstruction, in a globalised campaign, mass radicalism equates to reactionary egalitarianism which dialectically, cedes power to military bureaucratic hegemony.

The combination of these factors would lead to the consolidation of neo Stalinist tyranny, which in the context of global finance hegemony's incapacity to absorb radical shocks/reform, would rapidly decompose and collapse into fascism - leading to the break up of Indonesia per se.

The defeat of the Indonesian (and similarly vis China, note the Tibet/Ouijar Qs) masses would leave the pacific rim completely prone to global finance hegemony (without a viable anchor for smaller powers to latch onto).

In other words, the Indonesian masses currently be kept to the role of secondary players. whose fate depends wholly on the geo institutional momentum of the external pol/econ process (their backdraft generates) worldwide.

This is radically different from the pro active mass engagement of the British model; where the revolutionary masses are able to seize operational control of the agenda, and rev warfare (in the epoch of global finance hegemony) is able to create its own momentum. As opposed to being wholly dependant on a linear domino effect.

How should the RDM respond to a leftwing coup?

In truth, we can only be true friends and consolidators (or ressurrectors) of the Indonesian revolution, if we maintain at all costs the independence and integrity of the RDM, its basic program, outside and inside Indonesia.

For in the final analysis, all comes down to a struggle against the same global fascizing dialectic. The fact that no neo classical left can overcome this dialectic , means in turn (geo pol/econ) that with connections with the revolutionary movement in the west, the Indonesian RDM can over-ride the neo classical left in Indonesia.

Without such connections, then ALL depends solely on the external momentum generated by the backdraft of the leftwing coup, with NO means to arrest any fatal break in the process/degeneration in Indonesia itself.

In conclusion, the British offensive/model is not merely a reserve strategy if things go awry in Indonesia. It is the only way of gaurenteeing the victory of the Indonesian and world revolution itself.

For the Indonesian RDM will be completely dependant on the western operational connexion to disarm Indonesian Stalinism of its nat sec state justification, and therefore direct and keep their revolution on track.

It would of course be utterly fatuous our condemning Indonesian Stalinism for atrocities in East Timor if we did NOT wage all out rev pol war on the western fascizing powers.

It is ONLY the militarised rev pol struggle against western tyrants which will give us any effective influence/authority in Indonesia or anywhere else.

Without such operational rev pol context, condemnation of Indonesian Stalinist atrocities in East Timor etc would actually be counter productive, strengthening the hands of BOTH western fascizing powers and Indonesian Stalinism/fascism, against the Indonesian and western masses.

To make clear, the threat of annihilation comes in 2 parts:

The coming trade war (which we have already outlined).

The threat of war developing its own momentum as a consequence of pol/econ collapse, as (with the fragmented post cold war context, which we shall further examine in Vol II) the elites seek to use nationalism/out & out warlordism to retain control of the pol/econ agenda.

The Russian apocalypse (which we have already mentioned) is something of a hybrid of the above 2.

Essentially, the solution lies in the western masses not only being prepared to make sacrifices for our own reconstruction, but also to aid the reconstruction of the 3rd world (as outlined in article 8 of the Basic Program).

To establish a connexion with/empower the workers/peasants of the 3rd world to drown their despots, to halt the slide into nuclear warlordism, used by the elites there (as well as in the west/1st world) to retain control of the pol/econ agenda. Mutual prosperity requires Mutual security, requires Mutual prosperity.

The cost of not doing so is far higher. Choking on our own barbed wire/nat sec state, which requires plundering hierarchical pol/econ elites to underpin the existing global/imperial divisions.

But it should be stated and repeated as often as possible that there is no revolution until the whole world has been revolutionised - Until then, each rev state/govt, is no more than a mere stockade against fascism.

WHY is a leftwing coup at the European core impossible?

As we have seen & shall see in greater detail in Vol II, there was gradual incorporation of radicalism within the core regime 1789-1848.

And the Russian revolution (at the periphery of the core), as the nation state system collapsed, stimulated (in post WWII context) the global incorporation of radicalism in a single USA led global pol/econ.

Similarly we have analysed the declention of this institutionalised radicalism, within the legitimated system as the core global pol/econ declined post Vietnam (leaving the way open for Quantum Materialism).

Yet (in Indonesia & indirectly S/E Asia as a consequance of the pol/econ backdraft of the Indonesian leftwing coup), this decline is sudden, before popular radicalism had been incorporated AND before it could be slowly strangled within legitimated crypto fascizing construct. Therefore leftwing coup (as elaborated), as core elite deposed (short-medium term) by non institutionl popular base.

Yet (in Europe) the core regime is actually aided by legitimising compliance of institutional laborism (note its compliance with institutionalised fascizing regime vis political scapegoating of ethnic minorities/ expansionism in response to the rise of the DVU, as core elite seeks to retain control of agenda - only alternative is revolution) and (simaltaneously) the degenration of this base within the legitimated fascist construct (giving impression that all other options exhausted) something not so readily accepted by the non institutional base of the Indonesian regime.