Here's some more clues.

Look at the ship lap soffet with a piece sagging downward (The soffet is the flat part under the roof overhang). The piece is hanging down right next to the chimney.

And the big paint peel on the fascia (The fascia is the vertical part just beneath the roof edge). Why is this the only place on the trim where the paint is damaged this much? Could there be moisture in the wood behind the paint? Could the moisture break the bond between the wood and the paint?

Time to take a really close look?!