PURPOSE:

This lesson focuses upon the scarcity of natural resources, and the global impact which ensues as nations become increasingly concerned over the issue. The Middle East is used as a backdrop for discussion. This region provides an excellent stage for demonstrating how one issue can provide the opportunity for regional cooperation or contention. The subsequent effects hold great importance for other world actors dependent on Middle East oil.

LESSON OUTLINE:

Thesis: We tend to see the main geo-strategic issue in the Middle East in terms of access to oil. Yet we know people can live without oil whereas they cannot live without water. Access to, and the sharing of water is bound to determine the future shape of the regional politics in ways that may lead either to the fragmentation or the integration of the regional state system thereby affecting regional stability. This lesson focuses on the scarcity of water as a factor impacting the interactions of various actors in the global community.

Main Point I: Hydropolitics play a preponderant role in determining the use of water in the Middle East the largest reserves of which are to be found on the Anatolian plateau and in the Litani river valley.

Main Point II: Contesting political powers and groups in the region use water as a point of pressure against secular powers, but this does not necessarilty have to lead to political fragmentation. The possiblity for integration based on a regime of equitable use of resources is always an option.

Main Point III: Whether hydropolitics leads to integration or fragmentation of the regional actors, it is safe to say that the political character of the region will be profoundly affected and thus have an important impact on the global strategic environment.

LESSON INTEGRATION & RATIONALE:

This lesson provides thought provoking information on the major resources issues affecting the future of Middle Eastern political stability. This lesson complements the other lessons dealing with regional issues and provides yet another way of viewing the strategic environment.

LESSON OBJECTIVES:

523.1 Comprehend the connection between the scarcity of resources and regional stability.

523.11 Summarize resource-related trends in the Middle East and how those trends

influence regional actors.

Hydropolitics is that element of politics related to a government's management of water-related policies, goals, and affairs

Your readings discussed a number of issues which fall under the general umbrella of hydropolitics, an intricate topic comprising many of the same issues frequently encountered in the "typical" world of politics. Economics, resource allocation, development of infrastructure, and international disagreements are standard issues encountered in the world of hydropolitics.

The issue is so critical that the involved countries and regions will eventually arrive at an "either-or" position: Either they will cooperate to resolve the potential crisis, or a conflict will ensue over access to water. Scarcity of water in region, pollution, growing water demand (population/agriculture/industry), and cross boundary water resources impact the situation. Because of the presence of another precious commodity indigenous to the region, oil, the ramifications of the resulting regional behavior have great importance to the rest of the global community.

The manner in which the Middle East nations resolve their difficulties carries great importance for other nations around the world for a number of reasons:

Perhaps the most important reason is that many nations of the world rely on the unimpeded flow of oil from the region. An integrative approach to solving the Middle East's water problem indicates a positive environment, and reduces world tension over access to oil. However, an environment marked by conflict leads to greater world tension .

Additionally, any large-scale war could prove economically disastrous for other areas of the world. Any crisis affecting such a large percentage of the world's population will draw attention, participation, and eventual economic contributions from other nations to prevent carnage. A cooperative environment may draw equal attention, but for positive means.

READINGS:

Gallegos and Kinner, "World Water: War or Peace?": provides basic information on the state of global water resources; enhance understanding of the critical nature of the world's water shortages, to reveal the potential impacts of attacking water-related targets in war, and to offer an available option to help solve this mounting problem.

Fresh water is a prerequisite to human existence, yet its scarcity is a problem of global proportion. In arid regions such as the Middle East, the difference between supply and demand for water resources has reached a crisis level.

FRESH WATER RESOURCES

• Fresh Water Uses
  • According to a recent World Resources Institute report, less than 1 percent of all fresh water is available to satisfy human needs with the greatest share coming from surface water (i.e., lakes, rivers, and streams) and ground water (i.e., aquifers).
  • The amount of fresh water available for man's use at any one time is dependent upon the amount of precipitation (source of all fresh water), the rate of water use, and the quality of the available water
  • Second factor affecting the amount of fresh water available to a country is the rate at which the water is withdrawn from its source for agricultural, industrial, and domestic uses
  • Third factor affecting the amount of fresh water available is water pollution. Agriculture is the leading source for water pollutants such as sediments, pesticides, and nutrients.⁹
• Water Scarcity
  • Water shortages occur where the demand for water exceeds the available water supply; Water use by continent is increasing at dramatic rates-the result of population growth and development
  • The effect of agricultural, industrial, and domestic uses on the total water available per capita varies widely. Malin Falkenmark, a noted Swedish hydrologist:
    • Studies basis for determining water scarcity in countries. From her study she defined what she calls "water competition intervals: limited water problems, water stress ,chronic water scarcity, water barrier ." When a country passes the "water barrier," the needs of the population, for all uses, exceeds the current supply of water available to the country.
  • Clarke, another noted hydrologist, expanded on Falkenmark's work in 1991. In his global study he excluded waters entering the country and all nonrenewable water sources (i.e., deep water aquifers which can take thousands of years to renew), because such water was not controllable by the host country. Ex of potential impact: If the Nile's waters were dammed or significantly reduced by upstream countries like Sudan or Ethiopia, Egypt's agricultural base, which used 98 percent of Egypt's total water supply, would collapse.
• WATER AS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT
  • Water source of numerous conflicts throughout history, e.g. Gulf War, Iraq positioned "human shields" at its own dam facilities and destroyed all of Kuwait's desalinization plants.
  • Where a river has been used as a boundary between nations, the shifting of the water has caused conflict over lines of political demarcation
  • Where waters drain and flow across political boundaries, as it does in 246 out of the 253 river basins in the world, conflict often results when significant changes occur in water quality or quantity.
  • Downstream nations often find themselves in a weak position to negotiate formal agreements whereas nations controlling the water resources of neighboring nations can wield formidable power. Worldwide situation intensifying as limited resources come under increasing pressure from growing populations.

MIDDLE EAST WATER PROBLEMS

• Water Crisis
  • Middle East water problem has become a crisis because of world demographic trends and a scarcity of water; term Middle East must include all the river basins from Egypt through Turkey.
  • Middle East remains, as it has been since the Nabateans first settled in the region, one of the most arid regions in the world.²⁸ This low rate of precipitation has exacerbated chronic water shortages.
  • Rapid growth in population within the region is not matched with a concomitant growth in food production, so poverty is worsening.
  • Using the lowest available estimates, per capita consumption rates could increase 20 percent, putting almost all Middle East countries, in Falkenmark's terms, beyond the "water barrier."
  • problem of scarcity versus increasing needs is compounded by the international nature of existing supplies within the Middle East.
  • In addition to water shortages, much of the fresh water is now polluted; Increasing water-quality problems have magnified the water crisis

Potential Conflicts: By the end of the 1990s, water problems in the Middle East will lead either to an unprecedented degree of cooperation, or a combustible level of conflict.

• Jordan River basin presents the Middle East's most intractable water management problem. Users of this 360 kilometer basin include Israel (including the Occupied West Bank), Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon
  • Aftermath of 1967 war had a direct impact on management of Jordan River basin. Israel's occupation of Golan Heights prevented Arab nations from diverting headwaters of the Jordan
• Israeli occupation of the West Bank: Without any water guarantees currently forthcoming, water rights in this area will remain a source of tension between the PLO and Israel.
• Control of the Golan Heights also gives Israel rights to the Yarmuk River. The Yarmuk River, which enters the Jordan River from the east, is of great importance not only to Syria, its source, but also to Israel and Jordan. Jordan has already overreached its renewable supply and water rationing is in effect
• Israel's third source of water is the coastal aquifer bordering the Mediterranean.
• Tigris and Euphrates Rivers both flow from headwaters located in Turkey through Syria, then join in Iraq to form the Shatt-al-Arab about 200 cubic meters from the Persian Gulf.
• The Ataturk Dam is only one of a series of 22 dams, 25 irrigation systems, and 19 hydropower stations Turkey is constructing as part of a massive economic development project called the Grand Anatolia Project (GAP). Syria and Iraq fear GAP will reduce Euphrates flow into Syria by 35 percent
• A third major basin within the Middle East where tensions are running high is the Nile River Basin. The Nile provides water for nine countries. The last country in line and the one most dependent upon the waters of the Nile is Egypt, which is already beyond the "water barrier."

Kemal Abbas Awar, "Environmental Warfare: Water in the Middle East"

Kemal Abbas Awar: articluates the tensions between Israel and Lebanon regarding the sharing of water resources and catalogues the possible causes of regional destabilization over their inequitable distribution

Water is scarce in this region. This scarcity has led to severe conflicts on the international rivers to secure this strategic asset for survival on both the individual and state-economy levels. These conflicts have been exacerbated by the following factors:

• Population growth needs demanded additional amounts of water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses.
• Unilateral developments of water plans by states on international rivers that mostly denied or disregarded the rights of other riparians.
• Traditional societies and ideological beliefs that led to the agricultural expansion irrespective of the amounts of water available.
• The emergence of basic rights with modern upstream states based on territorial integrity versus basic historical needs of downstream countries.
• Political disputes, ethnic, and religious hostilities.

CURRENT AND FUTURE CONFLICT CAUSING ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

• Population Growth, Desertation, Low-Quality Water, Deforestation, Climate Change

SOLUTIONS

• Reallocation or apportionment of shared water resources of international rivers, on the basis of equitable utilization (or water sharing) by political agreements shared by all parties concerned; states and under creation states (Palestine) is required for hydropolitical stability.
• Peace Process: The peace process hydrologically followed two tracks. The bilateral talks to define water rights while the multilateral talks to organize water supply
• Measures of Equitable Utilization
  • International Water Law
    • "The most important principle defines equitable utilization as follows: Each basin state is entitled, within its territory to a reasonable and equitable share in the beneficial uses of the waters of an international drainage basin" (Helsinki Rules in 1966)
    • The International Law Assembly (a body of UN) was directed by General Assembly in 1970 to study "codification of the law on water courses for purposes other than navigation." The general principles being codified include:¹⁰
      • Common water resources are to be shared equitably between the states entitled to use them, with related corollaries of

- A limited sovereignty, Duty to cooperate in development, Protection of common resources

• States are responsible for substantial transboundary injury originating in their respective territories

• Needs-Based Equity?
• Based equity usually depends on geography; i.e., where the river or aquifer originates and how much of that territory falls within a certain state. Needs equity depends on chronology; i.e., who has been using the water longest
• Economic Equity
  • This measure allocates water resources according to its economic value. The idea is that different uses and users of the water along a given waterway may place differing values on the resource. Therefore, equitable utilization should take into consideration the possibility of increasing the overall efficiency of water utilization by reallocating the water according to these values.
• Nile Basin
  • Nile 2002 conference held in Khartoum in February 1994 was a smart step in the right direction. A joint management committee called "Tecconile" has been set up by the nine riparians to prepare multilateral agreement for the year 2002, Ethiopia abstention so far from Tecconile is a big disappointment
• Euphrates and Tigris Basins
  • countries along the Euphrates and Tigris enjoy the good fortune that with almost 3,000 centimeters of water per capita each year are good enough for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses if used sensibly and efficiently ought to suffice for all three countries
  • Syrian-Iraqi Agreement in 1990, which called for Syria to keep 40 percent of the flow of Euphrates within its borders and allow the remaining 60 percent through to Iraq, was a very reasonable move
• The Jordan Basin
  • It is too early to appoint joint management for Jordan Basin as long as Lebanon and Syria did not reach to peace treaties with Israel
• Better Management and Administration
  • Better management is to prioritize the use of water by reallocating it for more valued uses in return for more economic benefits. This shift has to consider the minimum water requirement for individual water rights that can meet equitable utilization. Better administration of water is to make best efficient use of it.
• Efficiency in Water Use
  • Increasing the efficiency of water use in all the countries of the region may be the most economical and the least controversial of all proposals
• New Supplies
  • Desalinization: Current prices make desalinization an expensive alternative for domestic use, and may be only affordable for industrial use
  • Med-Dead or Red-Dead Canal Plan: convey sea water from the Mediterranean or the Red Sea to Dead Sea, which lies 400 meters below sea level. This large elevation drop would permit the generation of hydroelectric energy sufficient to run desalinization plant.
  • Peace Pipeline: Peace Canal originates from Tigris River (any point on Tigris north of the confluence of Tigris with the Euphrates) to the East Gulf states. To provide the amount of water proposed by the eastern canal of peace pipelines and probably more.
  • Other Transfers: Tankers, Towing icebergs from North or South Pole Floating bags or medusa bags of capacity 1.6 million cubic meter