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By J. Adams
May 3rd, 1997
| Spirit Of Truth | Stock Market Update | Unreported Truth |
| UPDATES: 4/29 | 4/29 | 3/30 | 3/18 | 3/13 | 3/7 | 3/5 | 2/18 | 2/14 |
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In February of 1991, while I was engaged in a written correspondence with Robert Prechter, the Elliott Wave Theorist, about what might cause the Grand Supercycle crash that historical patterns in the stock market indicate is about to happen, I had a mysterious vision of a special report of a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel. About a week after seeing this mysterious special report, a friend and I heard an air-raid siren and nuclear explosion upon reading the Seventh Seal prophecy from the eighth chapter of the Bible's Book of Revelation. The implication of these supernatural hints was rather clear: a chemical SCUD missile attack against Israel, apparently by an Arab power or powers (I've long thought Iraq, but it could be Syria and/or Iran as well), would eventually occur that would be followed by a global nuclear war. My conclusion has been that this tragic scenario, which entails a catastrophic upset of Western expectations, is what is going to cause the ultimate crash that will follow the Grand Supercycle peak in the stock market (see my Global War Articles).
Thus, I've long been monitoring developments in the stock market to determine when the Grand Supercycle top is reached realizing that soon afterward a global war could erupt possibly starting in the Middle East with a chemical SCUD attack on Israel. Earlier this year the proper ingredients came together for the Grand Supercycle top in stock prices and Western expectations as the DJIA reached the 7000 mark around the time of a major planetary alignment. The DJIA then reversed about ten percent and has since rebounded almost to new all- time highs as of the end of last week.
Fortunately, thus far, no war has occurred. The pattern that I've been worried will repeat here is that of 1990 when the DJIA reached 3000 (closed two days in a row at 2999.75) and then reversed course in association with Iraq threatening and then invading Kuwait (see chart). Accordingly, I've been concerned reversing from Dow 7000 would involve another far more serious outbreak of war in the Middle East that would be followed by a global nuclear war. Yet, contrary to my doom-and-gloom "crash" expectations, up to now reversing from Dow 7000 has only meant a minor interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since which stock prices and collective expectations have almost completely rebounded. Wonderful! I hope the DJIA breaks to new record heights on Monday and makes a complete joke of my immediate crash expectations (I had predicted a crash into the 55th day after the March 11th peak, i.e., May 5th, and instead there's been a record rally into the date). Indeed, it would be nice if everything I've ever been led to believe about an approaching Grand Supercycle collapse and world war proves completely deluded and wrong. However, I don't think this will be the case...
There are now alarming signs that a war in the Middle East is about to occur. As was revealed in a critical report by a U.S. government Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare late last year dubbed "Approaching the New Cycle of Arab-Israeli Fighting", the hardline Arab Powers, i.e., Syria, Iran and Iraq, have been forging alliances and making final preparations for a massive attack against Israel. Now it appears that massive attack is about to happen, or at least Israel is about to preempt such an attack and thereby trigger all-out war in the Middle East anyway.
As can be gathered from the news reports below, Syria and Iran are making preparations to attack Israel while Israel is preparing for an attack or possibly to preempt any attack. First off, note the report from Friday about the meeting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convened with his top ministers in which "security briefings were heard, and the ministers discussed, among other things, the allocation of upgraded gas masks and chemical warfare kits...". Now match this with the report about how Syria has recently been arming missiles targeted against Israel with deadly nerve gas. Next, read the BBC report dubbed "Egyptian opposition paper says Israeli missiles aimed at Iran" which suggests that Israel is preparing for a massive air- strike against military and infrastructural targets in, at the least, Iran (the news source should not be considered reliable but the paper would likely have connections in Arab intelligence for acquiring such sensitive information). Indeed, there is good reason to believe that Israel would contemplate a strike against Iran at this point.
Israel is increasingly concerned by Iran's development of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles. Iran has had a long- running, aggressive program to develop chemical, biological and nuclear weaponry and now the Iranians, according to the London Telegraph, "have....taken delivery of a consignment of the North Korean Nudong surface-to-surface missiles which would enable them to launch attacks against Israel". I doubt Tel Aviv will be patient in acting to mitigate the emerging threat of mass destruction from the radical regime in Teheran. And now, as both the U.S. and Europe are aligning against Iran in response to prior terrorism that is being linked back to Iran's leaders, an opportunity may be emerging for Tel Aviv to launch a debilitating preemptive attack against Iran's growing military prowess that was recently flaunted in wargames code-named the "Road To Jerusalem". (That Israel is willing to take such preemptive action is revealed by previous preemptive Israel strikes against the Arab powers as they were preparing to attack the Jewish State in the 1950's and 1960's.)
Even if Israel isn't about to set-off a regional Middle Eastern war with a preemptive strike against Iran and/or Syria, the odds are war is going to erupt there one way or another in the near-future. Clearly the hardline Arab states like Syria and Iran are getting ready to unleash a massive attack against the Jewish State, so it's not going to take much to ignite the region into a catastrophe of mass destruction. Inevitably, this will lead to a global nuclear war that Russia, now openly allied with China, has been preparing to unleash on the West.
Of course, in light of all this, how is that the DJIA is around all-time record heights above the 7000 mark? Whose beliefs and expectations are deluded and irrational- mine or society's??!!
4/2
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ARUTZ SHEVA ISRAEL NATIONAL RADIO
Today is Friday May 2, 1997 / Nisan 25, 5757
1. MINISTERIAL MEETINGS THIS MORNING
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu convened the ministers of the Likud-
Gesher-Tsomet list this morning, before the regularly-scheduled weekly
cabinet meeting. He formed the new forum as a result of his post-Bar-
On affair pledge to confer more with the government ministers. Deputy
Prime Minister Zevulun Hammer announced that he would meet at the same
time with the remaining ministers. At the official Cabinet meeting
held afterwards, security briefings were heard, and the ministers
discussed, among other things, the allocation of upgraded gas masks
and chemical warfare kits, restitution to flood-damaged areas, and
toll roads.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"Syria reportedly manufacturing nerve gas for warheads"
-- By DAFNA LINZER, the Associated Press.
JERUSALEM (April 29, 1997 6:03 p.m. EDT) -- Syria is mounting a deadly
nerve gas onto surface-to-surface missiles capable of reaching targets
throughout Israel, an Israeli newspaper reported Tuesday.
Syria obtained the chemicals for the nerve gas from Russia and
recruited the help of a Russian chemical and biological weapons expert
to manufacture the gas, the Haaretz newspaper said.
A worldwide treaty banning chemical weapons went into effect at
midnight Monday. Neither Israel nor Syria is among the 88 countries
who have ratified the pact. Kuwait became the 88th country to ratify
the pact on Tuesday.
Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy warned Syria on Tuesday against
using chemical weapons and hinted at Israel's long-suspected nuclear
arsenal as a deterrent.
"We are following this development and others," Levy told Israel
Radio. "Anyone who does this understands that we have capabilities far
and above what the other side can even imagine."
Israel and Syria began negotiations in 1991, but the off-again, on-
again talks broke off last year after a spate of terror attacks in
Israel.
Syria demands Israel return the strategic Golan Heights captured in
the 1967 Middle East War in exchange for a peace agreement, but
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists Israel should retain
control of the plateau.
Syria's manufacture of the gas came up in recent talks between Israel
and the United States, Haaretz said. Levy was scheduled to travel to
the United States on Friday for meetings with Clinton administration
officials.
Levy called on Syria to return to the negotiating table, but added a
warning.
"We will continue with the necessary things we also develop ... so the
other side will understand that they are not the only ones with
control," he said. "We control things seven-times worse."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
May 3, 1997, Saturday
"Egyptian opposition paper says Israeli missiles aimed at Iran"
SOURCE: Source: 'Al-Sha'b', Cairo, in Arabic 25 Apr 97
Excerpt from report by Egyptian newspaper 'Al-Sha'b' on 25th April
Israel has aimed 250 conventional, chemical and nuclear missiles
against 150 military and economic targets and public utilities in Iran
that it plans to destroy. It has also placed 200 combat aircraft on
top alert in preparation for an air strike against Iran.
Israeli military experts have analysed 15,000 satellite photographs
of likely Iranian targets that are alleged to show chemical and
nuclear weapon systems, missile launching pads and frigates. This
information came to light during a meeting that the Israeli enemy's
prime minister held with army commanders, intelligence officials and
his cabinet's security group last Saturday 19th April�.
On hearing of Israel's hostile plans, some NATO members, including
France, warned Washington not to pay attention to the Israeli reports
because they are allegations that are capable of causing the entire
region to erupt.
Meanwhile, Washington warned Cairo of the consequences of Syria's
alliance with Iran. Washington also placed its forces in the Gulf on
alert on the strength of an Israeli claim that Iran is preparing an
attack.
These developments come at a time when Iran has placed 800,000
members of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps IRGC� on full alert.
Two hundred thousand Iranian troops have participated in large-scale
live-ammunition exercises that included the use of tanks, aircraft and
destroyers...
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"Iran 'two years' from Nodong"
Israeli intelligence believes that Iran has received computer software
related to the Nodong missile from North Korea. They estimate that
Tehran could produce the missile within two years, but Russian
assistance could further speed development.
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"Iran buys Chinese chemicals"
China is reported to have sold Iran around two tonnes of a chemical
agent used for NBC decontamination earlier this year. The shipment of
calcium-hypochlorate will be used to improve Tehran's chemical weapon
defences following Iraqi chemical attacks during their 1980-1988 war.
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"REPORT: IRAN COULD CLOSE OIL GATE"
May 3rd, 1997
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, gateway to
one-fifth of the world's oil supply, if it feels threatened by the
United States, a newspaper warned Saturday.
The editorial came in response to a comment by Newt Gingrich, speaker
of the House of Representatives, that the United States should respond
decisively if Iran were found responsible for a bombing last year that
killed 19 U.S. airmen in Saudi Arabia.
``If Iran feels that its security is threatened, it will definitely
not allow the region to remain safe for the passage of oil,'' the
English-language daily Tehran Times said.
It was the second time in a week that Iran has warned it could close
the strategic strait, which is at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
Iran has warned against any country using force against it since
reports last year that the United States was considering missile
strikes against Iran if it was implicated in the bombing of an
apartment complex housing in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, last June.
Iran denies involvement.
In a speech Wednesday at Johns Hopkins University, Gingrich said that
if a link was proven, Iran should ``wake up each morning wondering
exactly what was going to happen.''
The newspaper responded: ``If the U.S. dared to inflict (the)
slightest damage on Iran, it would be the U.S. government's turn to
wake up each morning wondering exactly what was going to happen to its
interests throughout the world.''
Iran ended four days of war games last week, and a top commander said
the maneuvers showed Iran could close the strait.
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"Iran Says War Games Prove Prowess"
CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- A top Iranian commander said Iran's war games in
the Persian Gulf showed it can close the Strait of Hormuz, gateway to
one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
The comment by Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaie, head of the Revolutionary
Guards, to Iranian television Saturday was Iran's most direct
statement about its naval strategies.
Rezaie, whose remarks were monitored by the British Broadcasting
Corp., was speaking of the Tariq-ol-Quds, or Road to Jerusalem, war
games that were held along Iran's gulf coast last week.
An English-language Iranian daily said Sunday that the maneuvers were
directed at Washington.
"The present circumstances required Iran to send a message to
Washington that any military adventurism against Iran may have
unpredictable repercussions," the pro-government Kayhan International
said in an editorial.
Iran fought a 1980-88 war with Iraq, but it considers 20 U.S. warships
that regularly patrol the gulf as a more immediate threat.
Iran has warned against any country using force against it since
reports last year that the United States was considering missile
strikes against Iran if it was implicated in a bombing in Saudi
Arabia. A truck bomb at an apartment complex housing in Dhahran, Saudi
Arabia, last June killed 19 American servicemen.
Iran denies involvement in the bombing.
The exercises, Iran's largest ever, were designed to test its missile
array and demonstrate its naval prowess, which Rezaie said gave it
control over the strategic strait at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
"We can keep the Strait of Hormuz open ... But if we want to, we shall
close this strait to anyone who is an obstacle to security in the
region and keep it open for our friends and the Muslims," he told
Iranian television.
Rezaie also said the maneuvers proved his country was capable of
crushing offenses on two fronts.
"It was demonstrated that ... we can both fight America in the south
and, at the same time, if anyone wanted to take advantage of this
American attack on our western borders, we are also able to be present
there and foil that move as well."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Reuters North American Wire
May 2, 1997, Friday, BC cycle
"Israel's Netanyahu warns of Syria, Iran arms"
By Colleen Siegel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in comments broadcast on
Friday that weapons flowing to Syria and Iran posed a danger but
Israel had the means to deal with the threat.
It followed Israeli charges earlier this week that Syria was
producing a more lethal form of nerve gas and warned Damascus it had
means many times more destructive at its disposal.
But Netanyahu, in a speech in northern Israel on Thursday, was
quoted by the Yedioth Ahronoth daily as saying there would be a peace
settlement in the next seven years: "We will reach peace soon. If not
in this term, then in the next term."
The prime minister, who began his four-year term last June, intends
to run in the next Israeli election in 2000. Final peace talks with
the Palestinians, which have yet to start under Netanyahu, are set to
conclude in 1999.
Peacemaking between Israel and the Palestinians ground to a halt
when Netanyahu sent bulldozers to begin a new Jewish settlement in
Arab East Jerusalem on March 18.
U.S. peace envoy Dennis Ross is to return to the region next week
to try to resolve the crisis, an effort hampered by an influence
peddling scandal that is demanding Netanyahu's attention.
Israel's army radio broadcast Netanyahu saying: "There are dangers
in the Middle East, there is a flow of weapons to states like Iran and
also a weapons flow to Syria. These are problems. But we are following
these things and we are also prepared to deal with them and we have
answers to them."
Syrian President Hafez al-Assad said on Thursday that Syria was not
shaken by Israeli threats.
"He who has nuclear weapons has no right to criticise others for
whatever weapons they have. If they want disarmament let's start with
nuclear weapons. Arabs in general are ready to get rid of other
weapons," Assad added.
Israel will not comment on foreign news reports it produces
biological and chemical weapons and possesses nuclear weapons.
Peace negotiations between Israel and Syria broke off more than a
year ago, under Israel's previous government. They have yet to resume
under Netanyahu.
Israeli prosecutors last month chose not to charge Netanyahu for
lack of evidence in a scandal involving the short-lived appointment of
an attorney general in January but said there were "real suspicions"
about his role.
Police recommendations that prosecutors charge Netanyahu came
during Ross's last Middle East peace shuttle, overshadowing his visit.
Opposition lawmakers have petitioned the High Court demanding
Netanyahu be charged and there is a citizens' movement demanding a
state commission of inquiry into the scandal.
A Gallup poll in Maariv newspaper said 51 percent questioned backed
establishment of a commission of inquiry, 46 percent opposed it, and
three percent had no opinion.
The poll of 466 Jewish Israelis with a margin of error of 4.5
percent also showed if elections were held 44 percent would vote for
opposition Labour lawmaker Ehud Barak; 42 percent for Netanyahu and 14
percent were undecided.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Report: Iranian Linked to Bombing Suspect
Sunday April 13 6:52 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuter) - U.S. and Saudi intelligence authorities have
linked a senior Iranian government official to a group of Shiite
Muslims suspected of bombing a U.S. military compound in Saudi Arabia
last year, the Washington Post reported in Sunday editions.
U.S. and Arab officials said Brig. Ahmad Sherifi, a senior Iranian
intelligence officer and a top official in Iran's Revolutionary
Guards, met two years before the bombing with Hani Abd Rahim Sayegh, a
Saudi Shiite arrested in Canada last month as "a direct participant"
in the June 25 blast that killed 19 U.S. servicemen.
The intelligence tying Sherifi to Sayegh has persuaded a growing
number of U.S. and Saudi officials of Iran's direct involvement in the
attack at the Khobar Towers housing complex, the newspaper said,
quoting U.S. and Arab officials.
"Iran was the organizing force behind it," one U.S. official told the
paper.
No comment was immediately available on the report from the State
Department or the FBI, which is the lead U.S. agency on the
investigation. Saudi Arabia is handling the investigation since it
took place on its territory.
The evidence of Iranian links to the Saudi Shiites suspected in the
Khobar bombing includes bank checks signed by Sherifi, Arab sources
told the Post, although it was unclear whether the checks were given
to Sayegh or other suspects.
Much of the information came from intercepts of telephone calls Sayegh
made to his wife and family in Saudi Arabia from Canada before he was
arrested, the newspaper said.
Unaware his phone was taped over a seven-month period, Sayegh
disclosed details of his role in the bombing and named others with
whom he collaborated, the sources told the paper.
The Post quoted the officials as saying the evidence appeared to show
a conclusive link to Sherifi, also known as Abu Jalal, but one U.S.
official said it did not "rise to the level (necessary) for a criminal
prosecution."
Canadian court documents contend Sayegh drove a surveillance car
behind the explosives-filled tanker used to demolish the Khobar
complex. Sayegh denies any involvement and says he was in Syria at the
time of the attack.
Sherifi's duties include organizing Hezbollah cells in Arab countries
around the Gulf, the newspaper quoted U.S. and Arab sources as saying.
He was implicated during a trial in Bahrain last year for 15 Bahraini
Shiite dissidents convicted of several hotel and restaurant bombings
which killed more than 20 people.
Separately, the Post reported that a second Air Force investigation
has again exonerated all officers who were responsible for security at
Khobar Towers.
The Air Force reopened its inquiry into whether any officers were
negligent in safeguarding the complex against terrorist attack in
January, after pressure by top Pentagon officials who were
dissatisfied with the initial probe.
The first report concluded that the bombing would have occurred
regardless of any chain of command that might have been in effect.
It said that nine commanders who had a role in protecting the
apartment buildings had performed their duties as well as could be
expected given the limited extent of U.S. intelligence warnings at the
time.
No comment was immediately available from the Defense Department.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
International Herald Tribune
April 19, 1997, Saturday
"Iran Radicals Warn Germany Of Retaliation"
By William Drozdiak; Washington Post Service
The leader of an extremist Shiite Muslim fundamentalist group in
Iran threatened Germany on Friday with suicide bombings if it did not
apologize for a court ruling that blamed Iran's leadership for
ordering the assassination of Kurdish dissidents here in 1992.
It was the first explicit warning of violent retribution in the
wake of last week's verdict by a Berlin court, which convicted an
Iranian and three Lebanese of murdering the Kurds at a local
restaurant. The court said the killers were acting on instructions
from Iran's highest authorities.
European Union nations withdrew their envoys from Iran after the
ruling.
Germany has stepped up anti-terror vigilance at international
airports and around government buildings in the last few days,
officials said. Italy also has moved to a high alert after its
intelligence agency warned of possible attacks by Islamic extremists.
''We will confront insults to Islam and our religious leadership
wherever in the world they occur,'' Hossein Allah Karam, head of the
Ansar'e Hezbollah group, told a crowd outside the German Embassy in
Tehran. ''We are even ready to strap a bomb around our waists and go
for martyrdom. Woe to you if you do not apologize for your actions.''
As he spoke, dozens of people signed up on the spot to become
suicide bombers, according to an Associated Press report from Tehran.
Mr. Allah Karam declared that hundreds of others had already
volunteered for suicide attacks
''Right now our government won't allow such actions, but we are
negotiating with it,'' he said.
''Once our deadline passes, then Germany will be confronted with
the explosion of the Hezbollah,'' he added, without specifying when
the deadline would expire.
Hundreds of policemen in riot gear were arrayed in four human
walls to shield the embassy, as protesters shouted ''Revenge,
Revenge!'' Disabled war veterans also joined the demonstration after
the government said it would press charges against 24 German firms
accused of supplying Iraq with chemical weapons used on Iranian
soldiers during the 1980-88 war.
Mr. Allah Karam's group is not believed to be linked to the
Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon that carried out kidnappings
of Westerners there. It is mainly a pressure group representing poor
people who seek to prevent Iran's ruling Shiite clergy from straying
from the hard-line values of the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled
the shah.
Until now, the Iranian government has expressed outrage but
reacted with caution against the German court ruling. Germany is
Iran's leading trading partner and has long acted as a special
intermediary during times of tension with other Western countries.
After withdrawing their ambassadors in tit-for-tat protests, both Iran
and Germany declared they did not wish to see the dispute escalate to
open hostility.
But with Iran heading into the final stage of campaigning for its
presidential election next month, the anti-Western fervor in the wake
of the German verdict has been exploited by radical groups that want
to purge moderate voices from government.
After keeping a low profile immediately after the verdict, leading
Iranian politicians reacted angrily when the lower house of Germany's
Parliament approved a resolution this week condemning Iran for
ordering the assassinations. Tensions could rise further if German
prosecutors decide to prolong their investigations into the role
played by Iranian leaders in the work of Iranian hit squads in Europe.
"Our forces must stay ready and alert in a bid to towart a joint
plot by the United states, Israel and the German judiciary against
Iran, " he said as he reviewed various units of the ground, air and
naval forces as well as the elite Revolutionary Guards marching in
Tehran's Azadi square.
Iran has been in the dock since a German court issued a verdict on
April 10 accusing Iranian leaders of ordering the 1992 murder of four
Kurdish dissidents in Berlin.
Tehran rejected the charges, saying the ruling was orchestrated by
its arch enemies -- Israel and the United States.
In reaction to the verdict, the European Union recalled its
ambassadors from Iran and suspended the so-called "critical dialogue"
with Tehran, a policy of engagement sharply criticized by the US.
Rafsanjani praised the "high morale" of the the Iranian armed
forces, saying they would defend any outside threat.
"Our armed forces enjoy a high morale and are ready for combat to
defend the country," he said.
Iranian manufactured ground-to-ground, ground-to air and air-to-air
featured high in the parade, which appeared to be smaller than
previous years.
Dozens of helicopters as well as US and Russian-made jetfighters,
such as F-5, F-14 and Migs, flied over the square in western Tehran.
Several anti-riot units of the revolutionary Guards were marching.
Iran said this week it had successfully tested the prototype of a
domestically-built jet fighter and that a first model would go on show
during an upcoming military maneuver in the Persian Gulf.
More than 200,000 Iranian troops from the Revolutionary Guards and
Islamic volunteer militia are to stage military exercises in the Gulf
and Gulf of Oman in the coming days.
Iranian forces regularly stage maneuvers in the Gulf and Oman Sea.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Electronic Telegraph
Sunday 4 May 1997
"Iran sends more spies to Europe"
By Con Coughlin
IRAN is intensifying efforts to consolidate its network of terrorist
cells and intelligence agents throughout Europe. As relations between
Teheran and the European Union degenerated into an undignified
diplomatic slanging match last week, Iranian intelligence chiefs have
given orders for reinforcements to be sent to embassies throughout
Europe, including Britain.
Two Iranian agents working for Iran's intelligence ministry, one
posing as an economic attaché, the other as a student, arrived
in Britain at the end of last month.
Other agents have been sent to reinforce intelligence operations in
Germany, Belgium, Italy, France and Cyprus. Iranian agents have also
been sent to the United States and Russia. The mobilisation of Iranian
agents follows the recent decision by Iran's Supreme Security Council,
revealed in The Telegraph, to mount a "campaign of intimidation"
against European governments. The council, which is chaired by
President Hashemi Rafsanjani, ordered agents to organise
demonstrations and mobilise terrorist cells throughout Europe.
The order to send intelligence reinforcements was taken in response to
the worsening diplomatic crisis between Teheran and the EU following
the recent German court ruling that Iran's leaders were responsible
for the 1992 murder in Berlin of three exiled dissidents and their
translator.
The German authorities have already issued a warrant for the arrest of
Mr Ali Fallahian, Iran's intelligence chief, for his alleged role in
planning the murders. The Iranian Embassy in Bonn serves as the nerve
centre for Iran's intelligence and terrorist operations in Europe, as
the evidence produced during the Berlin trial demonstrated. In an
attempt to curb Iran's intelligence activities, the German authorities
expelled four Iranian diplomats.
But, according to Western intelligence assessments, the Iranians still
have their largest concentration of intelligence operatives based at
the Bonn embassy. Six senior intelligence officials control the
ayatollahs' European network of spies from the third floor of the
Iranian embassy in Bonn. Scores of others are posing as students and
political refugees.
Iran has responded to the diplomatic crisis caused by the court ruling
by striking a variety of bellicose postures. As well as dispatching
agents throughout Europe, the Iranian authorities held a series of
military manoeuvres along the Gulf coast last week to display their
ability to threaten the world's main oil supply route.
Since the 1987 "tanker war", when American and British warships
protected oil tankers from attack by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in
the Gulf, Iran's military chiefs have concentrated their energies on
acquiring sophisticated military technology.
That would allow them to control access to the Straits of Hormuz, the
West's main oil lifeline. Last week's display of military fire power,
which was carried out along the entire length of Iran's Gulf
coastline, indicated that the Iranians now have the equipment to pose
a serious threat to the region's security, and the West's economic
wellbeing.
During the exercises the Iranians demonstrated their new Tondar
(thunder) surface-to-air missiles and a new anti-ship weapon. In
addition, the Iranians have recently taken delivery of a consignment
of the North Korean Nudong surface-to-surface missiles which would
enable them to launch attacks against Israel.
Following the exercises, which were code-named "Tariq al-Quds" - the
road to Jerusalem - Brigadier-General Rahim Safari, the Revolutionary
Guards commander in charge of the forces, boasted that Iran now had
the capability to close the Straits of Hormuz, and the West's major
oil supply route - if it so desired.
Iran's more aggressive stance comes as the final preparations are
under way for the presidential elections later this month when Mr
Rafsanjani must stand down after completing his second term of office.
By persuading the Iranian authorities to adopt a more aggressive tone,
Ali Khamenei, Iran's radical spiritual leader, hopes to increase the
chances of Ali Akbar Nouri, the speaker of the 270-seat parliament,
succeeding Mr Rafsanjani as president. Whatever the outcome of the
elections, it is unlikely to result in Iran renouncing the policies,
such as Teheran's continuing support for international terrorism, that
have created the rift with the EU.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
April 18, 1997 18:09 GMT
"Rafsanjani warns of Western threat against Iran"
President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani on Friday warned of a threat
to Iran from Western countries, and urged the armed forces to stay
prepared to thwart any "dangerous plot."
"The world infidels are hatching dangerous and oppressive plots to
confront the Islamic Iran and the latest events are a clear sign,"
Rafsanjani told a crowd during a parade by the country's armed forces
to mark the Army Day.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
International Herald Tribune
May 2, 1997, Friday
"EU and an Angry Iran Turn Up War of Words;
Standoff Over Terror Ruling Is Worsening"
By Tom Buerkle; International Herald Tribune
The European Union engaged in a new round of diplomatic
retaliations with Iran on Thursday, urging its members not to send
their envoys back to Tehran after the Iranian government moved to
block the return of the German and Danish ambassadors.
The worsening diplomatic standoff, backed up by harsh verbal
exchanges between Tehran and some EU capitals, dealt a major blow to
European attempts to contain the damage to relations caused by a
German court ruling that Iran's leaders were responsible for the 1992
murder in Berlin of three exiled dissidents and their translator.
The moves on both sides left Europe veering toward the sort of
isolation that the United States has advocated for Iran, but which
most European governments have rejected as bad in principle and
harmful to Europe's economic interests.
In the Netherlands, which holds the rotating EU presidency,
officials said the government would discuss further retaliatory
measures coming days, possibly including economic sanctions, with the
14 other EU states.
The German foreign minister, Klaus Kinkel, praised the
demonstration of support from his EU partners. ''We will not impose
our ambassadors on Tehran, '' Mr. Kinkel said Thursday in Bucharest,
where he was visiting. ''We Germans won't let ourselves be blackmailed
or divided.''
On Tuesday, EU foreign ministers agreed to suspend official
ministerial visits to Iran and to keep on hold Europe's so-called
critical dialogue with Tehran. But insisting on the need to maintain
some channels of communication with the Iranian government, the
ministers also agreed to return ambassadors to Tehran; they were
recalled immediately after the German court ruling on April 10.
Iran responded harshly. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati said
Wednesday that his government would not welcome the return of
ambassadors from Germany and Denmark, two countries that had led the
campaign for EU diplomatic sanctions.
''If they never return to Iran, we will not be sad and may even be
happier, '' Mr. Velayati said. ''We have no need for a one-way
relationship with Europe.''
The nation's religious leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, urged
the Foreign Ministry to bar the return of the German ambassador ''for
some time, '' and to ''not show haste'' in returning to European
capitals the ambassadors that Iran had recalled late last month.
''We don't give a damn about your ending the critical dialogue,''
Mr. Khamenei said. ''We never sought such a dialogue, and we have
more criticism against you than you do against us.''
At The Hague, the Dutch Foreign Ministry said Thursday that it was
urging EU governments that had not yet returned their ambassadors to
Tehran to refrain from doing so ''until further notice.'' The Italian
ambassador, the only EU envoy that had already returned, was expected
to stay in Tehran.
The ministry also summoned the Iranian charge d'affaires at The
Hague to explain Tehran's actions.
''The presidency will make it clear to the Iranian charge
d'affaires,'' the Foreign Ministry said in a statement, ''that the EU
policy with regard to Iran is supported by all EU member states and
that the EU will not accept that Iran takes arbitrary measures against
some member states for a policy supported by all.''
Iran's harsh reaction appeared to strengthen the hand of EU
governments that favor tougher measures to punish Tehran for its
support of international terrorism.
But the possibility that all 15 EU governments would endorse
dramatic new measures was uncertain, at best. France, Italy and Greece
took the softest line this week, rejecting any discussion of economic
sanctions and stressing that the ban on official ministerial visits
would not prevent informal contacts from taking place.
Despite the outcry in Germany over the court ruling, Bonn has
resisted economic sanctions. Germany sold 2.2 billion Deutsche marks
of goods to Iran last year, which made it Iran's biggest trading
partner in Europe.
Privately, German officials credit the Iranian government with
protecting Bonn's embassy in Tehran from mobs that protested the
ruling. They fear that tougher EU measures will only strengthen the
position of hard-liners.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Washington Post
April 18, 1997, Friday, Final Edition
"Pope Reportedly Focus of Alert"
Italy has put its security forces on alert after an intelligence
report that Islamic extremists could be preparing to attack targets
including Pope John Paul II, the Italian news agency ANSA said.
The agency said, without quoting sources, that the alert was issued
at a meeting of police and intelligence chiefs at the Interior
Ministry Wednesday night.
The pope's visit last weekend to Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital, was
preceded by the discovery of land mines planted along the route of his
motorcade. The pontiff and international airports in Italy were among
potential targets, the agency said.
It said the report sounding the alarm had been drawn up by the
Italian military intelligence agency SISMI and referred to the crisis
in Europe's relations with Iran as the possible spark for attacks by
Islamic militants.
The Vatican secretary of state, Cardinal Angelo Sodano, told
Italian television that the pope was not "particularly alarmed" by the
alert.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Reuter European Business Report
April 11, 1997, Friday, BC cycle
"EUROPEAN OIL TRADE ON ALERT OVER IRAN-EU ROW"
By Richard Mably
Iran's diplomatic standoff with the European Union put oil traders
on alert on Friday amid some concern that an escalation might threaten
vital oil supplies.
But analysts and oil executives said they saw only a slim chance
that Europe would mimic the United States and take a new hardline
approach against Tehran, putting a blanket ban on trade with one of
Europe's biggest oil suppliers.
"Stay alert, don't panic," was the message Kleinwort Benson chief
oil analyst Mehdi Varzi said he would give his clients.
"I do not foresee Europe going as far as an oil embargo on
Iran. Europe is not the United States," said Varzi.
"We're aware of the situation but we're not sitting here biting our
fingernails," said a senior trader at a major European oil company
which buys Iranian crude.
Oil prices have risen more than 50 cents a barrel since the crisis
began on Thursday reaching $ 18.15 by 1200 GMT on Friday.
Relations between Tehran and Europe hit a new low on Thursday after
a German court accused Iran of ordering the killing of Kurdish
dissidents in Berlin.
Germany withdrew its participation in "critical dialogue" with Iran
and the EU invited member countries to withdraw top diplomats from
Tehran for consultations.
European Union foreign ministers will discuss relations with Iran
at a regular meeting on April 29.
EU nations rely on Iran for ten percent of their oil imports buying
about a million barrels a day (bpd) on average last year, according to
the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA).
Italy last year was Europe's biggest buyer of Iranian oil importing
260,000 bpd followed by France with 170,000 bpd and Greece with
140,000. Spain (120,000 bpd), the Netherlands (100,000 bpd) and Sweden
(90,000 bpd) also imported significant volumes last year.
Germany, heavily reliant on oil imports, uses only small amounts of
Iranian crude buying just 18,000 bpd last year, the IEA said.
Europe is already cut off from most of Iraq's oil supplies because
of the United Nations ban imposed for Baghdad's 1990 invasion of
Kuwait. In the unlikely event of a blanket embargo on trade with
Tehran Europe would struggle to replace Iranian
"The problem is that Europe's nearest sources of supply, the North
Sea, Russia and North Africa are running flat out," said Varzi at
Kleinwort Benson.
"A cut off of Iranian oil would leave an alarmingly thin supply
cushion to Europe."
The EU so far has refused to join U.S. trade sanctions on Iran and
has strongly attacked U.S. legislation passed in 1996 providing for
non-U.S. firms that invest more than $ 40 million in the Iranian oil
and gas industry.
European oil companies, led by France's Total (TOTF.PA> said on
Friday they would not be deterred from investments in Iran.
Washington in 1995 also put a ban on U.S. oil companies trading
with Iran adding to its longstanding trade embargo with Libya and
further limiting western oil supply options.
For Iran, the world's third biggest oil exporter selling 2.6
million bpd, any threat to its European sales would spell disaster
virtually cutting it off from the western world.
It might also ignite Middle East tensions by benefiting Iran's Arab
rivals in the Gulf.
"A cut-off of Iranian oil given the current circumstances in the
world oil market and the friction in the Gulf I think would be a very
serious move to contemplate," said Varzi.
Iran's Arab neighbours Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab
Emirates, the only oil producers in the world holding spare output
capacity, would be the obvious candidates to fill any gaps in European
supplies.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"THE COMING MIDDLE EAST WAR AGAINST ISRAEL"
By Louis Rene Beres
Professor of International Law
Purdue University
Department of Political Science
E-MAIL [email protected]
Major unconventional war will almost certainly break out in the
Middle East before the end of the millennium, possibly even before the
end of this year. The most likely onset of this conflagration will
involve coordinated Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian missile attacks against
Israel. Carefully planning their aggressions before Israeli anti-
tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) defenses are in place, Damascus,
Baghdad and Teheran (Cairo, too, perhaps) will perceive a "window of
opportunity" they shall not want to miss. What is more, these massive
attacks will be timed to coincide with multiple and substantial
Palestinian uprisings on both sides of Israel's Green Line.
Israel's Arab and Islamic enemies understand Israel's grave
security vulnerabilities. Aware that Jerusalem's "Arrow" ATBM program
is still years away from deployment, and that the Jewish State is
unlikely -especially in the course of a U.S.-dominated "Peace Process"
- to undertake preemptive attacks against enemy hard targets, Syria,
Iraq, Iran and the Palestinians (and possibly others) will want to
strike while the iron is hot.
Of course, there is always the extraordinary cost of Israeli
nuclear retaliations to consider, but this cost might be judged
manageable so long as Israel's nuclear weapons remain land-based. It
is also plausible that Israel's enemies could expect to deter the
deterrer, seeking to prevent Israeli nuclear reprisals with compelling
threats of chemical and/or biological counter-retaliations.
Israel's enemies assuredly recognize a promising synergy between
external and internal attacks upon the Jewish State. Realizing that
simultaneous Palestinian uprisings and enemy state ballistic missile
attacks would be mutually reinforcing, potentially immobilizing
Israel's capacity to man its essential defensive and deterrent forces,
Syria, Iran, Iraq and the Palestinians could reason that they will
soon be in a position to win the long-hoped for Jihad. And all of
this assumes an altogether rational consideration of prospective costs
and benefits. Should any of Israel's state enemies, particularly
Iran, begin to calculate outside the bounds of normal strategic
rationality, it might launch devastating attacks against Israeli
populations in spite of expecting massive nuclear retaliations. Here,
the undeterred aggressor state would resemble the individual Hamas or
Islamic Jihad suicidal terrorist in macrocosm, animated not by an
extraordinary willingness to die (the usual popular misunderstanding)
but rather by an all-consuming drive for immortality.
Recently Israel warned Syria that it had at its disposal certain
military means many times more destructive than the lethal VX nerve
gas Damascus is producing. Although this is certainly correct, the
intended deterrent effect upon Damascus could be undermined by several
factors, especially if Syria were to doubt Israel's willingness to
retaliate with nuclear weapons. In this connection, it is time for
Israel to reconsider its long-standing policy of "deliberate
ambiguity," as keeping the bomb "in the basement" may diminish the
required credibility of its unconventional threat.
Today Israel's survival is entirely contingent upon its nuclear
weapons, but merely possessing these weapons is no assurance of
workable deterrence. Under certain conditions, a carefully-
coordinated "bolt-from-the-blue" attack by capable enemies against
Israel's pertinent military targets could conceivably render Israel's
reprisal "acceptable." And even if these enemies were mistaken in
their calculations - i.e., the net effect of their planned aggression
would actually not turn out to be gainful - the "victory" for Israel
would be entirely moot. This means that Israel must now, immediately,
do whatever is needed to ensure successful nuclear deterrence,
including the articulation of necessary strategic doctrine and the
appropriate sea-basing of certain missiles.
It is also clear that Israel cannot base its very survival upon
nuclear deterrence. The Jewish State must now also reaffirm its
historic commitment to self-defense, including the sort of
anticipatory self-defense operations expressed so persuasively in June
1967 and, later, in June 1981. Although the destruction of Baghdad's
Osiraq reactor on June 2, 1981 was likely a singular event, one not
easily capable of replication anywhere, the tactical option of
preemption cannot be ruled out altogether. For the future, such an
option would most likely be directed at Iran, but it would also have
to be undertaken collaboratively with the United States. Is such
collaboration a reasonable prospect? Not at all - especially as
Washington continues to be flim-flammed by the "Peace Process," a
Trojan Horse that not only makes war against Israel increasingly
likely, but is in fact the indispensable precondition (because of
needed intra-Israel Palestinian mayhem) for coming Jihad.
Israel can take certain steps to prevent an otherwise inevitable
war. These steps should involve measures that will prevent a
corrosive synergy between enemy-state missile attacks and Palestinian
terrorism, a synergy that is now taken by Damascus, Baghdad, Iran and
Gaza as the starting point and prerequisite for Israel's mandated
annihilation. Preparing to prevent war on two fronts, Jerusalem must
now strengthen its survival position via a suitable combination of
deterrence and preemption while it simultaneously starts to fight back
against Yasser Arafat and his Islamic partners.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"SECULAR ANALYST SUGGESTS IRAQ MAY
JOIN A SYRIA-IRAN-RUSSIA ANTI-ISRAEL AXIS"
Jack Van Impe Intelligence Briefing Update
April 28, 1997
As we have reported before, the British Intelligence Digest of
Joseph de Courcy says that it is likely that "Russia is working with
Syria and Iran to bring Iraq into their alliance against Israel" in
spite of previous serious problems each country has has with Iraq.
Considering the instability of the government in Turkey, he says,
"The only thing that could make the news from the Middle East worse
would be a sign(considerably unlikely, but not impossible) that
Turkey's military is losing the battle to keep Turkey secular."
Maybe he should consider how things are going in Algeria who seem to
be headed down the dreaded path of terrorism to militant Islamic
fundamentalism.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
International Herald Tribune
April 24, 1997, Thursday
"Russia and China Agree: Washington Is Too Bossy"
By Lee Hockstader; Washington Post Service
The presidents of Russia and China, symbolically thumbing their
noses at the United States, signed a declaration Wednesday formally
endorsing ''a new multipolar world'' that would counterbalance
Washington's global muscle.
But beyond pomp, ceremony and words of friendship at their Moscow
meeting, there was little sign of what policies or actions Boris
Yeltsin and Jiang Zemin planned to embrace that would advance the
''new international order'' they so gravely proclaimed.
Although both took pains not to mention the United States by name,
their resentment of Washington's unrivaled clout permeated the Kremlin
signing ceremony.
''Some are pulling the world toward a unipolar order,'' said Mr.
Yeltsin, who, when he last met with President Bill Clinton in Helsinki
a month ago, appeared grumpy at a press conference afterward.
''Someone wants to dictate order in the world. And we want a
multipolar world.''
He added, ''These poles constitute the foundation of a new world
order.''
China is on record supporting Russia's bitter opposition to the
eastward expansion of NATO, the Western security alliance in which the
United States plays the leading role. NATO is expected to announce in
July that it will add members from the former Soviet-dominated Warsaw
Pact Q probably the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.
In the past, mutual suspicions between Moscow and Beijing have run
deep. In December, for example, Russia's defense minister, Igor
Rodionov, warned on the eve of a visit by Prime Minister Li Peng to
Moscow that China remained a military threat to Russia.
Visiting China this month, though, Mr. Rodionov shifted gears. A
member of his traveling delegation told the Interfax news agency that
not only did China no longer pose a threat, but also that ''Russia can
supply China with up-to-date arms and technology for their production
without harm to its own security.''
For months, it has been reported that as part of their
reconciliation, Moscow and Beijing planned troop reductions, perhaps
of 15 percent to 20 percent, along the 8,000-kilometer (5,000-mile)
border that once demarcated the Soviet Union and China. But the issue
appeared clouded Wednesday. Citing an unnamed person, Interfax
reported that the troops would remain where they were and that the two
sides had merely ruled out any increase.
In a separate accord scheduled to be signed Thursday, Mr. Yeltsin,
Mr. Jiang and the leaders of the former Soviet central Asian
republics of Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will agree to inform
each other about troop movements in the border region.
Mr. Yeltsin, who returned from a vacation to greet the Chinese
leader on his five-day visit to Russia, said the occasion was ''of
enormous, possibly historic importance, as we are determining the fate
of the 21st century.''
Mr. Jiang, who speaks some Russian, addressed the Russian
Parliament with a similar message of friendship and ''strategic
partnership.''
''Let the powerful tree of friendship between our two peoples
always be green,'' he said.
The two leaders announced that a committee on ''friendship, peace
and development'' would be set up to nurture the warming bilateral
relationship.
The Russian side will be headed by Arkadi Volsky, who has close
ties to top figures in Russia's crumbling military-industrial complex.
The top Chinese representative will be Huang Izheng, vice chairman of
the Chinese National People's Congress Commission for Financial and
Economic Issues.