Weaver - All the Chinese

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Wight or Wong?

Alan Coren

Published October 7 in The Times.

Prepare for flight with one of the greatest columns of 1998...

You don't know how significant July 18, 2004, is going to be.
I bet you don't know how significant a day July 18, 2004, is going to be. Indeed, I would be prepared to offer you any odds on that bet, if we had met anywhere but this column. Had we done that, and you had cared to commit yourself to one pound, I would have taken out a million of my own pounds and put them on the table. You would have had a bit of a think about July 18, 2004, you would then have given it your best shot, and I would have shaken my head and picked up your pound. But, sadly for me, this column is where we have met, and I cannot take your bet because this column is here for the sole purpose of telling you how significant a day July 18, 2004, is going to be, so all bets are off.
The reason I can be so confident of your, forgive me, ignorance is that I am also prepared to give you long odds that, at a little after 3am last Thursday, you were not standing in your attic study on a piece of wallpaper 3ft sq, tapping a pocket calculator even as you pored over copies of Whitaker's Almanack and the Encyclopaedia Britannica on the desk beside you. I, however, as you may have twigged, was, because I couldn't sleep and had trudged aloft to find a narcotic book; and since it was 3am, I switched on the radio for the news before I ran my finger along the shelves. Thus, I was still listening and fingering when the radio murmured that China had just announced that its population, which had been increasing annually by 20 million, had now reached 1.25 billion. Can you guess what, a nanosecond later, I wondered? Yes, spot on, I wondered whether all the Chinese could still stand on the Isle of Wight.
They could, the last time I heard. I heard it at Osidge Primary, when I was ten and the Chinese were 400 million. I had not thought about it since, but now, half a century on, I thought about it again. Far worse, I wanted to know.
But, at 3am, there was nobody to ask. So I took down the Encyclopaedia Britannica, and found that the Isle of Wight covered 147 square miles. I then took down Whitaker's Almanack and found that there were 640 acres to the square mile, and 4,840sq yd to the acre. I then picked up my calculator; which, after a bit of prodding, revealed that the Isle of Wight covered 455,347,200sq yd.

The population of China can still stand on the Isle of Wight.
All I then needed to know was how many Chinese occupied a square yard. I did not have any Chinese readily to hand, but I had bought a couple of suits in Hong Kong, once, and been told that I was regular size.
Assuming therefore that I was an honorary average Chinaman, that the average Chinawoman took up a bit more space, due to sticking out, but that the average Chinachild took up a bit less, it seemed reasonable, certainly to someone whose reason was beginning to crumble, that if I could discover how many of me could stand on a square yard, I should be nearly home. That is why I now went into the loft and cut a 3ft sq piece of wallpaper from an old roll, and stood on it.
Having, naturally, first measured my width with a ruler. I am 2ft across at my widest. I could not therefore get four of me onto my square yard. If, however, I stood triangularly, I could just fit three of me on.
I returned to my calculator, because it was time to multiply 455,347,200 by three. The answer - though I'm sure you have it, too, because something tells me this is one of those columns where you are not going to let me get away with anything - is 1,366,041,600. That is exactly how many Chinese the Isle of Wight will bear. So I had my answer: the population of China, despite having risen to 1,250,000,000, can still stand on the Isle of Wight.

The next day, 54,795 Chinese will have to stand somewhere else.
But for how long? Not how long can they stand there (although, admittedly, there isn't a lot to do on the Isle of Wight if you can't budge; 1,250,000,000 visitors would soon get fed up just standing) but how long will it be before the population of China, growing at 20 million per annum, cannot stand on it at all? I picked up my calculator again. Increasing by 54,795 per day, including two leap years, the last day on which, having reached 1,366,041,600, the population of China will be able to stand on the Isle of Wight will be July 18, 2004.
See how significant a day it has turned out to be? The next day, 54,795 Chinese will have to stand somewhere else.

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This page updated December 25, 1998

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	You don't know how significant July 18, 2004, is going to be.	I bet you don't know how significant a day July 18, 2004, is going to be. Indeed, I would be prepared to offer you any odds on that bet, if we had met anywhere but this column. Had we done that, and you had cared to commit yourself to one pound, I would have taken out a million of my own pounds and put them on the table. You would have had a bit of a think about July 18, 2004, you would then have given it your best shot, and I would have shaken my head and picked up your pound. But, sadly for me, this column is where we have met, and I cannot take your bet because this column is here for the sole purpose of telling you how significant a day July 18, 2004, is going to be, so all bets are off. The reason I can be so confident of your, forgive me, ignorance is that I am also prepared to give you long odds that, at a little after 3am last Thursday, you were not standing in your attic study on a piece of wallpaper 3ft sq, tapping a pocket calculator even as you pored over copies of Whitaker's Almanack and the Encyclopaedia Britannica on the desk beside you. I, however, as you may have twigged, was, because I couldn't sleep and had trudged aloft to find a narcotic book; and since it was 3am, I switched on the radio for the news before I ran my finger along the shelves. Thus, I was still listening and fingering when the radio murmured that China had just announced that its population, which had been increasing annually by 20 million, had now reached 1.25 billion. Can you guess what, a nanosecond later, I wondered? Yes, spot on, I wondered whether all the Chinese could still stand on the Isle of Wight. They could, the last time I heard. I heard it at Osidge Primary, when I was ten and the Chinese were 400 million. I had not thought about it since, but now, half a century on, I thought about it again. Far worse, I wanted to know. But, at 3am, there was nobody to ask. So I took down the Encyclopaedia Britannica, and found that the Isle of Wight covered 147 square miles. I then took down Whitaker's Almanack and found that there were 640 acres to the square mile, and 4,840sq yd to the acre. I then picked up my calculator; which, after a bit of prodding, revealed that the Isle of Wight covered 455,347,200sq yd.
	The population of China can still stand on the Isle of Wight.	All I then needed to know was how many Chinese occupied a square yard. I did not have any Chinese readily to hand, but I had bought a couple of suits in Hong Kong, once, and been told that I was regular size. Assuming therefore that I was an honorary average Chinaman, that the average Chinawoman took up a bit more space, due to sticking out, but that the average Chinachild took up a bit less, it seemed reasonable, certainly to someone whose reason was beginning to crumble, that if I could discover how many of me could stand on a square yard, I should be nearly home. That is why I now went into the loft and cut a 3ft sq piece of wallpaper from an old roll, and stood on it. Having, naturally, first measured my width with a ruler. I am 2ft across at my widest. I could not therefore get four of me onto my square yard. If, however, I stood triangularly, I could just fit three of me on. I returned to my calculator, because it was time to multiply 455,347,200 by three. The answer - though I'm sure you have it, too, because something tells me this is one of those columns where you are not going to let me get away with anything - is 1,366,041,600. That is exactly how many Chinese the Isle of Wight will bear. So I had my answer: the population of China, despite having risen to 1,250,000,000, can still stand on the Isle of Wight.
	The next day, 54,795 Chinese will have to stand somewhere else.	But for how long? Not how long can they stand there (although, admittedly, there isn't a lot to do on the Isle of Wight if you can't budge; 1,250,000,000 visitors would soon get fed up just standing) but how long will it be before the population of China, growing at 20 million per annum, cannot stand on it at all? I picked up my calculator again. Increasing by 54,795 per day, including two leap years, the last day on which, having reached 1,366,041,600, the population of China will be able to stand on the Isle of Wight will be July 18, 2004. See how significant a day it has turned out to be? The next day, 54,795 Chinese will have to stand somewhere else.