The Balkans are part of a land bridge between Europe and Asia. For thousands of years many different peoples have swept through these lands, conquering them and then losing them again, leaving a mix of clashing religions and ideologies. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo, Bosnia, by a Serbian nationalist was the tender keg that ignited World War I. For forty- some years following World War II, the federation of Yugoslavia was held together by the charismatic Croatian Communist leader, Marshall Josip Tito. Alone among the East European countries, Titos Communism was not imposed on Yugoslavia from Moscow; it was homegrown. Yugoslavian citizens lived in relative peace despite their diversity. But when Tito died in 1980, old ethnic hatreds reemerged, and peace unraveled.
When the Serbian nationalist Slobadan Milosevic took over the Yugoslavian Communist party and came to power in 1989, ethnic hatred exploded, and the country began to disintegrate in 1991. The province of Slovenia was the first to split from Yugoslavia. Its war for independence was relatively bloodless and received little attention in the media. But when Croatia and Bosnia followed, an ethnic bloodbath began. Bosnian Serbs (who made up 40 percent of the population) resorted to a war of ethnic cleansing against Bosnian Muslims and Croatians. Milosevic not only supplied arms to the Serb fighters in Bosnia, he sent his own soldiers to fight with their Bosnia brothers. In an effort to cut these supplies of arms and men, the UN imposed economic sanctions on Yugoslavia. After three years of supporting mass rape and massacre of civilians in Bosnia, Milosevic tried to put the genie of Serbian nationalism back in the bottle by cutting off his support for the Bosnian Serbs and promising to bring them to the negotiating table. Milosevic survived, but the breakup of the old federation left him with a Yugoslavia that now includes only Serbia and its little neighbor Montenegro.
The Dayton accords, signed by Milosevic and the leaders of Croatia and Bosnia in December, 1995, effectively partitioned the two new countries along ethnic lines. Although Sarajevo remained the federal capital of Bosnia, most governmental functions, such as the police and the judiciary, were transferred to local governments. The three antagonistic ethnic groups now live in relative isolation, members of an artificial state and ruled by international bureaucrats. Sixty thousand NATO troops were sent in to enforce the accords, 20,000 of them from the United States. When they disembarked, President Clinton reassured the American people that the U.S. troops would be home by the following Christmas (1996). Today, more than three years later, 6, 700 of them still remain on duty in Bosnia.
Now the Clinton administration is preparing to send up to 4,000 additional American troops into Kosovo to keep the peace. Kosovo is a province of Serbia with an ethnic population that is ninety percent Albanian (mostly Muslim). Under Marshall Tito the federal government of Yugoslavia had exerted little control over day to day affairs in Kosovo. Milosevic ended that autonomy in 1989 and established Serbian rule in Kosovo, stationing federal troops in the country and putting local police authority in the hands of Serbian police. Harassment at the hands of the Serbs ignited an Albanian uprising last year that led to the formation of Kosovo Liberation Army - guerrilla fighters determined to overthrow Serbian control of their country and declare independence for Kosovo. Now, nothing will extinguish the fire of self-determination. Over two-thousand people have already died in the conflict, and hundreds of thousands have been made homeless. The Serbs have a vastly superior army, but the KLA is convinced it can wear down the Serbian war machine with years of guerrilla war. Milosevics Serbs are just as determined to keep Kosovo from becoming independent. Unlike Croatia and Bosnia that had historically existed as states, Kosovo has always been a part of Serbia. Kosovo is also on the vital route to the Yugoslavian Republic of Montenegro, Belgrades only link to the Adriatic and world markets. And despite its ethnic mix, Kosovo is still considered the cradle of Serbian culture and history. (It was there that in 1389 the Serbs fought and lost the most significant battle in their history against the Ottoman Empire.)
In an effort to stop the carnage in Kosovo, the United States and its NATO allies arranged a cease-fire last October to allow thousands of refugees to return to their homes before the frigid winter set in. The cease-fire brokered by U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke called for the withdrawal of some Serb forces from Kosovo and a stop to the harassment of civilians by Serb police. A team of 2,000 verifiers were sent into Kosovo to ensure compliance. But as winter wore on, both sides began to violate the cease-fire. Recent threats by the United States to launch air strikes against Serb forces were motivated by an alleged massacre of Albanian civilians on January 15. Forty-five Albanians were killed during a Serb attack on the village of Racek. The U.S. diplomat William Walker took one look at the bodies and pronounced the Serbs guilty of an unspeakable atrocity against defenseless civilians. The Serbian government, on the other hand, alleges the dead were KLA combatants killed in battle that were mutilated and then dumped in a ditch by Albanian guerrillas to make it appear to be a Serbian massacre of civilians. After all, the best hope for Kosovo independence lies in provoking a new Serb atrocity.
Letting its military get tangled up in the Kosovo mess is a dangerous step for the United States and NATO to take. Despite American support for the independence of Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia, the Clinton administration does not want Kosovo to have true self-determination for geopolitical reasons. Americans fear that an independent Kosovo might join Albania to form a Muslim country, igniting an ethnic Albanian nationalism that would destabilize neighboring Macedonia whose population is 25 percent Albanian. This would certainly provoke the introduction of Greek troops into Macedonia to protect the Greek majority and trigger a military response from Turkey. The last thing NATO needs is an outbreak of hostilities between Greece and Turkey. Our Western European allies also have historical prejudices. The French and the Russians have always had very close ties with the Serbs. (In fact, it can be argued that these two countries were the most guilty parties responsible for starting World War I by immediately jumping in on the side of the Serbian nationalists and declaring war against the Austro-Hungarian empire.) If NATO sends troops to Kosovo, things could easily spin out of control. A NATO occupation of Kosovo could lead to a conflict with Russia. One current member of the Russian Duma has already threatened Russian military action against NATO if it uses force in Kosovo.
On January 30, NATO threatened to launch massive air strikes against Serbian forces unless Yugoslavia negotiated a political settlement with the KLA. Under the threat of NATOs guns, Yugoslav Serbs and Kosovo Albanians are now sitting down at the negotiating table in a 14th century chateau (once used by Louis XIV) in Rambouillet, France. But bombs cannot create a multiethnic society. America is pushing for a compromise plan that calls for a three year interim period during which the Albanians would get broad local autonomy, including control of the police force, but Kosovo would remain a part of Serbia. NATO would station some 60,000 ground troops to keep the peace. After the interim period, discussions between the government of Yugoslavia and the leaders of Kosovo would resolve the question of independence. The Albanians would be freed from the harsh grip of Serbian authority, but not, at least for the next three years, be allowed to secede. But this is Pollyannish. Although Milosevic is a hard case, the Albanian separatists are an even greater obstacle to peace. They will agree to stop the fighting only if they are promised a free and non- negotiable referendum on independence after the three year interim. And that will be unacceptable to the Serbs. If the rebels insist on secession, the Serbs will never let NATO troops into Kosovo.
Forget the rhetoric about self-determination and freedom. The superpowers intervene in the Balkan countries not for human rights, but property. The Balkans sit on a geopolitically enviable location - they occupy the primary route between the oil-rich Black Sea - Caspian Sea region and Europe. Fabulous wealth is about to be created in the land around the Caspian. The region will become the worlds largest producer of crude oil in the 21st century, surpassing even the Persian Gulf in importance. The great diplomatic game of the next century will be to secure access to that oil. Nothing will be allowed to impede the pumping of those reserves to an energy starved Europe. The world must be made safe for the large-scale movement of oil across the Balkans, and the development of the necessary infrastructure will require political stability. If peace comes to the Balkans, it will be imposed by the superpowers to create that stability. (Or could the ethnic hatred of the Balkans become a virus that infects the superpowers, shattering NATO and provoking a new conflict with Russia? )
Mac Williams
Cosmos Mariner
Destination Unknown
© February 7, 1999