Oscars 2002: Winner Predictions |
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Oscars 2002: Winner Predictions |
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Predictions Recap: |
Written by DAVID KEYES
Any avid moviegoer will tell you how the attempt to make predictions of Oscar victors has become a coveted American pastime, but few of them will be able to express in words how addictive, frustrating and time consuming it actually is. That concept has never been more apparent than this year, as a careful look over the 74th Academy Awards voting ballot is an instant invitation to hours of piercing headaches. The elaborate guessing game that tends to befuddle even the most successful predictors is even more of an obstacle this time around than it has been in years past. In recent memory, viewers, critics and analysts could at least depend on "weak spots" (or nominees who seemed susceptible to being forgotten) in major categories to help narrow their predictions down. Now, in a year when five seemingly invulnerable pictures have been grouped in the ceremony's most coveted category, the opportunity to close the gap has become much more difficult. Time, fortunately, has given some of us the opportunity to make more educated guesses (thanks in part to events like the Screen Actors Guild). The list of predictions provided below argue for and against major contenders this year, and though the outlook still remains clouded, it should at least be noted that, for the first time since the nominations were announced, the choices are becoming somewhat clearer. BEST PICTURE In terms of exposure, both "In The Bedroom" and "Gosford Park" have been pushed the most during Oscar season. Alas, this notion could prove fatal for both films. The first mentioned carries with it the curse of being distributed by Miramax Films, who in the past have marketed and pushed their contenders so immensely that the media has speculated whether the studio tries to buy its Oscar wins (and the upset caused by 1998's "Shakespeare In Love" is definite proof). "Gosford Park," on the flip side, has been marketed moderately well. However, the general consensus has been that director Robert Altman is the real winner here, not the movie itself. The Academy will probably hand the 77-year-old filmmaker his much-deserved trophy and forget about the film thereafter. The overall assumption thus far has been that the final race is between "A Beautiful Mind" and " The Lord of the Rings." But not so fast. Although Ron Howard's movie about a schizophrenic mathematician fits the mold of the Academy's typical winners--schmaltzy but uplifting character drama--it recently has endured a backlash because people have called into question the accuracy of the story (remember how "The Hurricane" suffered from this?). Peter Jackson's adaptation of the Tolkien fable, meanwhile, is credited with having the most nominations of the night--a big plus--but the Academy has not once given its Best Picture honors to anything science fiction or fantasy. Who says they'll start now? This leaves us with "Moulin Rouge!", a film that, despite being released in the first half of 2001, has practically no attributes working against it. The critics loved it. The Academy responded by nominating it eight times. The hype has escalated ever since the film hit video store shelves four months ago. And above all else, the movie is groundbreaking cinema. Prediction: "Moulin Rouge!" BEST DIRECTOR Such a revelation only reminds us that even the most assured contenders can be vulnerable to upsets, and that factor should be considered this year as well. Howard has strong support in this category thanks to his DGA win, but nominee Robert Altman, a famous director who has been in the business for over 50 years, has not once won an Academy Award (although he's been nominated four times before) and is the sentimental favorite. Plus, the fact that he's a much older and more appreciated director than Howard is also beneficial here. Prediction: Robert Altman BEST ACTOR After Crowe has been removed from consideration, what remains in this category are two new faces to the Academy Awards (Tom Wilkinson and Will Smith) and two well-known but overlooked actors (Sean Penn and Denzel Washington). If hype has a lot to do with the way award shows like this play out, then Smith and Wilkinson should consider their nominations their awards ("In The Bedroom" is credited more for Sissy Spacek, and "Ali" was a box office dud). Ditto for Sean Penn, whose performance as a retarded father seeking custody of his eight-year-old daughter was hyped early but gradually fell by the wayside. This means that Denzel Washington, who was forgotten two years ago for his marvelous performance in "The Hurricane," is the apparent choice here. The fact that his performance in "Training Day" was very unconventional for the actor won't hurt his chances, either. Prediction: Denzel Washington BEST ACTRESS Then again, who's to say that someone else might simply shut both of them out? Stranger things have happened, after all. Spacek and Berry are tight contenders here, but the race between them is perhaps too close to result in a win for either one of them. Something should be said for the gradually increasing momentum for Nicole Kidman, who was not only effective in her nominated performance for "Moulin Rouge!", but also in last summer's "The Others" as well. Given the messy tug-of-war going on between the two leading contenders, it shouldn't be much of a surprise to assume Kidman can slip past both of them. As for Judi Dench and Renee Zellweger, neither of them pose much of a threat. Dench recently won an award for playing Queen Elizabeth I in "Shakespeare In Love," and Zellweger is the dark horse of the category, the nominee that probably snuck into final nominations by a mere hair. Prediction: Nicole Kidman In Brief: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Ian McKellen is the only sure guess here. Not only did he win the SAG recently for the same role, but he's also been greatly acknowledged in the recent past for his work in movies like "Gods and Monsters" (which, by the way, resulted in an Oscar nomination as well). Plus, since "The Lord of the Rings" won't see any wins in other major categories, the Academy will feel they've honored it enough by giving him this one. Prediction: Ian McKellen BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Prediction: Jennifer Connelly Other Predictions: � David Keyes, CINEMA 2000. To keep the content of these pages at near-perfect quality, please e-mail the author here if the above review contains any spelling or grammar mistakes. |