John Sharkey
Research Topic:
Global Warming
ITEC 301:
Technology and Its Impact on Humans
Dr. Smart
Research
Topic: Global Warming
Table of
Contents
Levels Page #
Statement of the Problem 2
Introduction 2
Historical Development 2-6
S-Curve Analysis 6-7
Carbon Dioxide Analysis 6
Methane Analysis 6-7
Human Impacts 7-9
Human Impact #1 8
Human Impact #2 8
Human Impact #3 8
Human Impact #4 8-9
Animal and Plant Impacts 9-10
Animal and Plant Impacts #1 9
Animal and Plant Impacts #2 9-10
Animal and Plant Impacts #3 10
Forecasts 10-11
What
are some solutions to Global Warming? 11
Researcher’s Comments 12
References 13
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Statement of the Problem
Global Warming is caused by the release of fossil
fuels such as coal, oil, and gasoline, and during deforestation and other land
use changes. These actions cause the release of carbon dioxide into the air,
which in turn causes the temperature to rise. This causes ice to melt and the
sea level to rise. There are several other problems that come with global
warming that have serious human, animal, and plant implications. Scientists
agree that failing to respond to the threat of global warming now could prove
disastrous for some parts of the globe.
Introduction
Global Warming is not a new trend. It has been
considered and studied for over 100 years. In recent years, scientists have
seen the trend grow steadily worse. The result that environmentalists recite is
that measurements taken at the earth's surface show that temperatures have
raised by 0.3-0.6C since the late-19th century, a big rise compared
with previous long-run changes in the climate.
Fossil fuels provide most of the energy used by humans,
everything from our factories to our cars to our refrigerators directly or
indirectly cause the release of some carbon 
dioxide. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere varied little for the last 1000 years, averaging about 280 parts per
million. But, since industrialization began in the 19th century, CO2 concentrations in
the atmosphere have climbed steadily. In the last thirty years, atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased sharply. They have increased
from 325 parts per million in 1970 to 367 parts per million in 1998, accounting
for nearly half of the total increase in CO2 since
pre-industrial times. Each person releases about 40,000 pounds of carbon
dioxide per person each year.
Historical Development
The global warming theory has gone through several
phases during its existence. A Swedish chemist named Arrhenius in 1896
developed it. The theory stated that the Earth would warm by carbon dioxide emissions
and that the Earth’s greenhouse effect was going to lead to global warming.
Over 100 years later, his theory is still believed today by almost all
scientists and environmentalists.
In the 20th century we have increased CO2 and methane production greatly (this of course all leads back to the
burning of fossil fuels). In 1924, based on the coal use of the 1920’s, Lotka,
a U.S. physicist, speculated that industrial activity will double atmospheric
CO2 in 500 years. This speculation was a bit off (it
looks like we’re going to double it in less than 200 years). In 1954,
Hutchinson, a Yale biologist, first suggested that deforestation would increase
atmospheric CO2. With fewer trees to consume CO2, the level of CO2 in the air will definitely increase.
In 1958, Keeling, a scientist with the Scripps Institute, began the
first reliable and continuous measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide at
Hawaii's Mauna Loa Observatory.
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In 1967, the first reliable computer simulation
calculated that the global average temperature may increase by more than 4
degrees Fahrenheit when the atmospheric CO2 level doubles that
of pre-industrial times.
In 1976, scientists at several research institutions
identify chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane, and nitrous oxide as greenhouse
gases. Some U.S. and Swedish scientists estimated that cooling by particulates
from coal burning has a relatively small effect on a global average basis.
In 1979, the report of a National Academy of
Sciences (NAS) panel on climate change advises that "A wait-and-see policy
may mean waiting until it is too late" to avoid significant climate
changes.
In 1983, An NAS report confirmed that a doubling of
CO2 levels eventually would warm the Earth by 3 to 8
degrees Fahrenheit. The same year a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
study called Can We Delay A Greenhouse Warming? stated that as a result
of warming, "agricultural conditions will be significantly altered,
environmental and economic systems potentially disrupted, and political institutions
stressed."
In 1985, a conference sponsored by the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and
the International Council of Scientific Unions forged a consensus of the
international scientific community on the issue of climate change. The
conference report warned that some future warming appears inevitable due to
past emissions, regardless of
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future
actions and recommends consideration of a global treaty to address climatic
change.
In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), made up of leading climate scientists from around the world,
established by UNEP and WMO to assess the scientific and economic basis of
climate change policy in preparation for the 1992 Rio Earth Summit.
1990 was the warmest year on record (until 1995 took
over as the warmest year thus far). An appeal signed by 49 Nobel Prize winners
and 700 members of the NAS states, "There is broad agreement within the
scientific community that amplification of the Earth's natural greenhouse
effect by the buildup of various gases introduced by human activity has the
potential to produce dramatic changes in climate. Only by taking action now can
we insure that future generations will not be put at risk." The scientific
working group of the IPCC, drawing on 170 scientists from 25 countries,
published a report stating that human activity "will enhance the
greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's
surface." It calculates that an immediate 60% reduction in CO2 emissions would stop the buildup of carbon dioxide.
Over 700 participants from 116 countries took part in
the Second World Climate Conference in 1990. The conference statement reports
"a clear scientific consensus has emerged on estimates of the range of
global warming which can be expected during the 21st century. If the increase
of greenhouse gas
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concentrations
is not limited, the predicted climate change would place stresses on natural
and social systems unprecedented in the past 10,000 years."
The year of
1992 marked the height of the global warming scare. This year contained more
coverage on the fear of global warming than any other year thus far. The Rio
Earth Summit took place and The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change was signed by 155 nations. This was the biggest convention on Climate
Change until 1997.
Man-made global warming had become a major international political issue in 1997. The imagined risk had become a real risk in the form of proposed government policies to inhibit CO2 emissions. The Rio Summit in 1992 proposed actions to constrain the emissions and the Kyoto Summit in December 1997 established binding agreements that would commit nations to the constraints. The problems with the constraints were that the effects of the constraints would cause real and severe economic damage to some of the nations. All industrial and economic growth requires an abundance of available energy. Anything that inhibits energy supplies reduces economic activity. At Kyoto, governments were pressured to reduce CO2 emissions to far below their 1990 levels. This requires cutting fuel supplies and, therefore, economic activity. The effects would be much more severe than the ‘oil crisis’ in the 1970s because the constraints on fossil fuel usage would be greater, the increases to energy costs would be larger, and energy demand was increasing and is still increasing now.
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Later in 1997, Europe, Japan, and the US agreed to
adopt the ‘Berlin Mandate’ that requires them to cut their CO2 emissions to 15% below their 1990 levels by year 2010.
S-Curve Analysis
Carbon Dioxide Analysis
As you can see, CO2 emissions have greatly increased from 1880 (about 290 parts per million) to 1998 (about 367 parts per million). This is due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. If more restrictions are not made (like the ones in Rio in 1992, in Kyoto in 1997), this trend will continue and human impacts will be inevitable.
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Methane Analysis
Methane
is another greenhouse gas that causes global warming. Humans are responsible
for over 60% of the methane in our atmosphere, the rest comes from natural
sources such as wetlands. As a result of activities including intensive
agriculture, waste disposal, and fossil 
fuel
production, the methane concentration has increased from a pre-industrial level
of 775 parts per billion in the 1850's to about 1750 parts per billion today.
Since 1970, methane in the atmosphere has increased about 400 parts per
billion. The good news is that methane's growth rate has decreased recently. In
the 70's, the concentration was growing at a rate of about 20 parts per billion
per year, but since 1993 growth has decreased to about 8 parts per billion per
year (due to the Rio Earth Summit in 1992).
Human
Impacts
There are several problems that global
warming will cause if more is not done to control it in a hurry. Here are the 4
biggest impacts that global warming will have on humans:
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Human Impact #1
The biggest problem
that global warming could bring upon the inhabitants of this world is the
spreading of disease. Warmer temperatures allow mosquitoes that transmit
diseases such as malaria and dengue fever to extend their ranges and increase
both their biting rate and their ability to infect humans. This could be
devastating to 3rd World Countries and a plague could occur.
Human
Impact #2
Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding could become
worse due to this problem. A warmer climate will bring an increase in
precipitation worldwide, especially during winter, according to climate model
projections. In addition, more precipitation is expected to fall in downpours
and heavy snowstorms leading to increased flooding and damages. The areas of
the U.S. affected by extreme rainfall have increased significantly since 1910.
Heavy rainfalls have also increased in Japan, the former Soviet Union, China,
and Australia.
Human
Impact #3
Droughts and fires
could become more common due to problem of global warming. As the climate heats
up, droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe in some locations.
Sustained drought makes wildfires more likely, and crops and trees more
vulnerable to pest infestations and disease.
Human
Impacts #4
The amount of sea ice in Arctic waters is shrinking annually by about 14,000 square miles - an area larger than Maryland and Delaware combined - probably because of global warming caused by human activity. The amount of the
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measured ice decline hasn't been in dispute, but the shrinkage is unnaturally large and is most likely due to human activities.
Animal and Plant Impacts
The Earth has a very
delicate ecosystem. If this system is tampered with, it could cause disaster
for the species that live within it. Global warming may have very serious
implications for humans, but the effect on the other species of the Earth could
lead to endangerment and even extinction. Here are 3 of the most serious
affects that global warming could pose on species of plants and animals:
Animal/Plant Impact #1
Earlier spring arrival could be devastating to the
earth’s eco-system. Spring now arrives earlier in many parts of the world.
Evidence of this comes from earlier thaw dates for rivers and lakes, earlier
dates for plant blooming and leafing, and earlier animal egg laying, spawning
and migration. An earlier spring may disrupt animal migrations, alter
competitive balances among species, and cause other unforeseen problems.
Animal/Plant
Impact #2
Global warming could cause plant and animal range
shifts and population declines. Plants and animals generally react to
consistently warmer temperatures by moving to higher latitudes and elevations.
Recent studies reveal that some species have already started to shift their
ranges, consistent with warming trends. Many populations and species may become
more vulnerable to declining
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numbers
or extinction if warming occurs faster than they can respond, or if human
development presents barriers to their migration.
Animal/Plant
Impact #3
Coral reef
bleaching has occurred already and this environmental consequence due to global
warming could become much worse. Reefs in 32 countries experienced dramatic
bleaching in 1997-98. Bleaching results from the loss of microscopic algae that
both color and nourish living corals. Water that is warmer than normal by only
2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit has been linked to bleaching. Other factors that
contribute to coral reef bleaching include nutrient and sediment runoff, pollution,
coastal development, and dynamiting of reefs, all of which are consequences of
human activity.
Forecasts
No one is really sure what’s going to happen (obviously), but the trend looks has if the earth will become warmer. Since 1979, scientists have generally agreed that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases the earth’s average surface temperature by 1.5-4.5°C (3-8°F). More recent studies have suggested that the warming is likely to occur more rapidly over land than the open seas. Moreover, the warming in temperatures tends to lag behind the increase in greenhouse gases. At first, the cooler oceans will tend to absorb much of the additional heat and thereby decrease the warming of the atmosphere. Only when the ocean comes into equilibrium with the higher level
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CO2
will the full warming occur.
As a result of the
delay induced by the oceans, climate scientists do not expect the earth to warm
by the full 1.5-4.5°C (3-8°F), even though the level of CO2 is expected to more than double and other
greenhouse gases would add to the warming. Currently, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change projects a warming of 1.0-3.5°C (1.8-6.3°F) by the year
2100.
What are some solutions to Global Warming?
There are several actions that most people in industrialized nations can take to decrease global warming. Here are 10 of them (these actions can save billions of pounds of carbon dioxide from going into the air):
1. Run dishwashers only with a full load.
2. Wash clothes in warm or cold water, not hot.
3. Turning
down water heater thermostats is more energy efficient.
4. Don't overheat or
overcool rooms. Adjust your thermostat (lower in winter, higher in summer).
5. Clean or replace air filters as recommended. Cleaning a dirty air conditioner filter can save 5% of the energy used.
6. Wrap your water heater in an insulating jacket.
7. Whenever possible, walk,
bike, carpool, or use mass transit.
8. When you buy a car, choose one that gets good gas mileage.
9. Reduce waste: Buy
minimally packaged goods; choose reusable products over disposable ones;
recycle.
10. Be informed about
environmental issues. Keep track of candidates' voting records and write or
call to express concerns.
The use of more efficient energy
sources will decrease the need for fossil fuels and is the basis for the
solution of the global warming problem. Governments and environmentalists have
to keep pushing for laws to be passed that decrease the use of these CO2 producing
fuels.
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Researcher’s Comments
Global warming is a real and serious threat to the
environment and consequently, to our world community. It could change the way
we live, work, and study. Global warming is a scary issue and there are many
implications that may come into play if we are not careful.
I believe that this is mostly a government and
political issue. It will have to take laws to contain global warming and help
rehabilitate the earth back to the levels it once was at (nature levels). I
believe that we need more laws, summits, and conferences to find out ways in
which we can contain this problem. Eventually, if the problem continues to
worsen, government officials are going to have to start outlawing (or restrict
heavily against) coal burning and excess oil use.
These problems all lead back to the burning of fossil fuels. It is very important that we start to build on the alternate energy sources like wind, solar, and hydroelectric. These sources are cleaner, safer, and do not cause global warming. We have alternatives to the burning of fossil fuels, scientist just have to figure out how to make them more efficient. Progress has been made (especially in wind power), but more has to be done to make it more widespread and increase its availability.
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References
1. Houghton, J.T.. (December 1997). Global Warming:
A Complete Briefing. New
York: Perseus Books. 114-120.
2. Gelbspan, Ross. (September 1998). The Heat Is on : The Climate Crisis, the Cover-Up, the Prescription. New York: Perseus Books. 210-212.
3. Lewin, Roger; Leakey, Richard E.. (November 1996). The Sixth Extinction: Patterns of Life and the Future of Humankind. Cambridge, MA: Da Capo Press. 40-41.
4. Parsons,
Michael L; Singer, S. Fred. (September
1995).
Global Warming : The Truth Behind
the Myth. Boulder, CO: Westview
Press. 22-35.
5. Stevens, William K. (January 2000). The Change in the Weather : People, Weather, and the Science of Climate. 213-215, 275-280.
6. Electronic Source: http://www.globalwarming.org/ Browser: Internet Explorer 5. Search Engine: Copernic 2000. ISP: CompuServe2000.
7. Electronic Source: http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/ Browser: Internet Explorer 5. Search Engine: Copernic 2000. ISP: CompuServe2000.
8. Electronic Source: http://www.toowarm.org/home.html/ Browser: Internet Explorer 5. Search Engine: Copernic 2000. ISP: CompuServe2000.
9. Electronic Source: http://www.edf.org/programs/GRAP/y3k/ Browser: Internet Explorer 5. Search Engine: Copernic 2000. ISP: CompuServe2000.
10. Electronic Source: http://www.toowarm.org/CAFE/factsheets/cleanenergy.html Browser: Internet Explorer 5. Search Engine: Copernic 2000. ISP: CompuServe2000.