get your own free homepage April 12, 1997
By Alex Wassem.
General Manager of the Smart Alecs
In the never-ending search to corner the market on closers, the Tennessee Ruxpins have taken a decidedly refreshing angle. The Ruxpins attempted to draft their way into the closer motherlode by gambling on the closers of tomorrow to supplement its cache of closers of today. In this manner, the Ruxpins conceivably will be trading from a position of strength down the road, filling necessary holes elsewhere on an as needed basis. Ultra closers deemed worthy of a pick included Osuna, Leskanic, Botchler, Looper, Ludwick, Coggin and Mantei. The problem is that Leskanic risks a team’s ERA and CR in earning his saves and Looper and Ludwick are in a logjam with Matthews, Batchelor and what seems like a cast of thousands. Coggin could rise fast if he ever learns to keep the ball over the plate. Mantei, like Ludwick and Looper, is caught in a plethora of other organizational pitching talent.
The best new player acquired by the Ruxpins is actually none other than Darren Dreifort for 8 cents. With Todd Worrell’s contract terminating after the 97 season and Worrell closing in on 40 years old, Dreifort appears worthy of the first round selection he was for the Dodgers. If the Ruxpins’ current closers Robb Nen and Ricky Bottalico aren’t traded prior to the end of 1998, Dreifort is positioned to assume the leading closer role when they become free agents.
While I believe too much emphasis is put into possessing two or three overpriced closers, the Ruxpins also have the luxury of possessing three of the finest starting pitchers in the NL in Hideo Nomo, Ismael Valdes, and Shane Reynolds. Hitchcock and Burba are solid innings eaters while Pete Schourek rates as solid plus when healthy.
The Ruxpin’s catching and outfield is solid although I believe Ryan Klesko to be overpriced at 27 cents for someone who often sits against left handers and has little speed. I like the middle infield and belive that Willie Greene may finally mature in ’97. If any position needs addressing on the Ruxpins, it’s first base. Butch Huskey has yet to prove he will ever fulfill the promise that has been his since 1994.
The Laze refrained from taking a major prospect until nabbing Adrian Beltre in the 2 cent round. Although no studs wait on the farm, the Laze should prove to be deep in the event of injuries or slumps. The catchers come cheap but could provide a return if Rich Wilkins duplicates his ’96 second half. Pagnozzi appears to be playing out the string in ’97. Sometime in 1998, he may step aside for offensive minded prospect Eli Marrero.
What the Laze will most likely lose in HR’s from Steve Finley in ’97, they’ll also most likely regain in the improved performance of 1B Mark Johnson who may prove to be undervalued at 10 cents. Delino DeShield’s price tag came down 7 cents from 1996 but he, too, may put up better numbers in ’97 playing for Tony LaRussa. The remainder of the infield is solid, as Vinny Castilla is one of the most undervalued players in the entire EMOO league. Elster has a chance to repeat his numbers in Pittsburgh and Gary Gaetti should yet be good for 20 homers.
If anything, it appeared the Laze waited too long in obtaining a top caliber OF in the auction. Eventually, that meant overpaying for Derek Bell although, admittedly, not by a lot. Tucker’s solid at 10 cents, Eisenreich is worth double his salary and Steve Finley is a gamer. The wild card in the equation is Danny Tartabull. My instincts tell me that he shot his load in ’96.
The Laze should be strong in pitching for ’97. Franco, Ruffin and Beck will be the closers, Beck being more tolerable at 22 cents than at last year’s 28. Franco and Ruffin are undervalued. This is one instance where possessing three closers is a solid move. I like Donovan Osborne’s odd of repeating or improving on his 1996 season. Kile, Hampton, Hamilton and Ashby should combine for 55 wins.
The Mudhens have six players over 20 cents and 15 players under a dime. This means that it’s imperative for the superstars to superstar-like seasons for the Mudhens in ’97. Unfortunately, it appears that Bonds and Sheffield will be among the league leaders in walks. This is fine for one’s On Base Percentage but does little to enhance one’s rotisserie value. The Mudhen’s may be better served by trading one or the other in a package deal for several solid everyday players and/or prospects.
Along with the aforementioned Sheffield and Bonds, the Mudhens have Glenallen Hill, Luis Gonzalez and Ray Lankford in the OF. Hill could have a super ’97 batting in front of Bonds. Gonzalez is solid but is merely holding down the fort for Bobby Abreu and Richard Hidalgo in 1998. Lankford needs to come off the DL strong to earn his 21 cents this season.
The Mudhen’s infield is nothing to write home about. Wally Joyner is keeping 1st base warm for super prospect 20 year old Derrick Lee who led the AA Southern League in HR’s last year with 34. Morandini and Weiss are worth their salaries but neither is a star. There’s a gaping hole at 3rd base in Bill Spiers (despite Sean Berry’s injury). However, Jeff Blauser shows the potential of regaining some respect with the bat in 1997.
Manwaring and Servais are serviceable at catcher. Manwaring, if healthy, may take a liking to the Colorado air.
The strength of the Mudhens is in the pitching. Smoltz, Martinez and Trachsel are excellent although Martinez at 27 cents is somewhat steep. Todd Worrell is a steal at 7 cents. Candiotti could still prove useful coming out of the bullpen. I like Mike Grace a lot but don’t like his fragile arm. Mark Portugal and Fernando Valenzuela turn 105 and 101 respectively but should still be worth a penny each. You couldn’t give Jim Bullinger to me, however.
Down on the farm, Dante Powell is an A-1 prospect as is Matt Morris. Todd Helton may unseat Andres in Colorado next year. Other than those three, the Mudhens focused their efforts on pitching. Lots of it. Most of these players are nondescript. However, Castillo, Gardner, Wall and Hutton could prove useful and Paul Wagner showed glimpses of being overpowering in a couple of early 1996 outings before being felled by an injury. He’s due back around the All-Star break. The one promising minor league pitcher worth keeping an eye on other than Matt Morris is Paul Wagner.
The Smart Alecs will go as far as the pitching takes them. Offensively, they have a solid combination of power (Bagwell, Chipper, Walker, Jordan, and Rodriguez), speed (Lance, Walker, Jordan, Devo, and Bagwell), average (Bagwell, Jordan, Johnson, Walker, and Kendall) and run producers (Jordan, Rodriguez, Walker, Bagwell and Chipper). Shane Andrews will need to produce another 18 homers and 70 RBIs while raising his average by 25 points. Is Kurt Abbott the player of ’95 who hit double digit HRs at shortstop or the one who stunk in ’96?
Al Leiter and Denny Neagle anchor the pitching staff. Pedro Astacio will need a strong ’97 season for the Alecs. Tim Worrell may be a steal at 10 cents. El Sid is a great rotisserie pitcher but he’s healthy as often as Bret Saberhagen. Cooke and Saunders are wild cards. Cooke is returning from a serious arm injury that’s cost him 2 years after he won 10 games as a rookie. Saunders should be in AAA for another half season but his outstanding spring vaulted him past Hutton and Helling in the Marlin’s rotation. Urbina is the only psuedo-closer. Wendell, on the Ultra roster, may pick up a few saves during the season. The Alecs decided against spending vast amounts of money on closers, instead opting to remain strong in all offensive categories and remain competitive in the other piching categories with the gambles mentioned above.
The Alecs spent early Ultra picks on major league depth. Tommy Greene could find his way to Houston at some point in ’97 if Sid Fernandez or Chris Holt gets sidetracked. Dale Sveum is ready in the event that Joe Randa struggles in a new league. Top prospects on the farm include Paul Konerko, a natural hitter with the Dodgers who has massive power and little speed, shortstop Chad Hermanson who has forced Lou Collier to 2nd base, Mark Kotsay, the golden spikes winner in 1996 and Eli Marrero, the heir apparent to Tom Pagnozzi in St. Louis. Additionally, holdovers Andruw Jones, Derrick Lee and Neifi Perez are ready to make contributions in 1997 or 1998. Lee, in particular, may expedite Jeff Bagwell’s departure from the Alecs next winter.
I love the Thunders’ main troika of Kevin Brown, Todd Stottlemyre and Chan Ho Park. Rick Helling could be a huge bargain at four cents. I’m not as sold on Terry Mulholland and Chris Holt. However, shrewd Ultra picks Sean Bergman, Mike Bielecki and Kevin Tapani provides excellent depth.
Charles Johnson is due to bust out and I really like Brant Brown’s natural stroke. Although I love Rondell White, 26 cents seems a lot to ask from him just yet. Allensworth better maintain a .260 average with 30+ steals for his 17 cents. Deion may be a good buy. Listach was bought on the memory of his rookie season. He must remain healthy to earn his salary.
After Eric Karros, I think the infield drops in a hurry. I don’t think Ryno can turn as quickly on the inside pitch as he once could and I expect his numbers to take a gradual drop from here on out. I do, however, like Jose Hernandez at a penny.
The best of the farm includes Tony Graffanino and Carlos Guillen. Edgar Ramos could be worth his selection. Although I like Pat Cline, I’m not convinced that 1998 wouldn’t have been a better time to take him.
The Xpress are a hard team to figure. They’ve acquired much talent. The question is whether that talent will be around when it begins to bear fruit.
On the major league level, Brad Ausmus is a base stealing catcher. That alone makes him worth his 6 cents. The outfield is questionable after Greg Vaughn. Rickey could prove to people that he’s not yet washed up but he may not be doing it in San Diego. Darryl Hamilton is fine for average and a few steals but little else. Brett Butler continues to deprive Todd Hollandsworth of at bats and Alex Ochoa has yet to turn the corner.
The strength of the team is the middle infield of Biggio and Larkin. I like Zeile at 15 cents and Kevin Orie comes with a high ceiling. Seguii is not the classic 1B and could step aside for Travis Lee in 1998.
The Xpress have closers aplenty, but little healthy starting pitching entering ’97. The long-term key to the staff rests with the arms of Estes, Pulsipher and Isringhausen. Wagner, out of the bullpen, is a lock through 1999 and a steal at 12 cents.
A wealth of talent awaits in the minors. Kris Benson will rise quickly but don’t look for him in Pittsburgh until sometime in ’98 as he would otherwise need to be protected in the upcoming expansion draft. Jimmy Anderson is another good-looking Pirate pitching prospect. The race for ’97 rookie of the year could be between Wilton and Vladimir Guerrero. The above mentioned Travis Lee is slated as the possible opening day first basemen in 1998 for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Even if this occurs, don’t expect more than 15-20 homeruns. Lee has more of a line drive swing than the prototypical McGriff-McGwire like stroke of most first basemen. Since we all know Chipper Jones is going nowhere, the question with Robert Smith is who arrives in Atlanta first, him or Wes Helms. The biggest problem the Xpress will have next winter is narrowing its minor leaguers to three as the current rules stipulate.
The Flyers coming off a push for the 1996 league title, find themselves in a rebuilding mode and they went a long way in the auction toward that goal. The outfield is in good shape with Reggie Sanders, Dante Bichette and Bernard Gilkey. These three comprise 37% of the total Flyer budget. The infield has questions but hope. Can Gregg Jeffries stay healthy for the full ’97 season and put up the numbers of 1993? Can Carlos Baerga regain the stroke that made him one of the most feared offensive second basemen in baseball? Can Jeff Kent hit 20 home runs again? Can Greg Gagne hang on another full season at 36 without succumbing to injury again? I like Bonilla this year.
The pitching was inexpensive. There’s nothing remarkable here but some of the young Pirate pitchers could be pleasant surprises. They’ll need to be for the Flyers to have any chance of competing. It’s more likely that one of the outfielders or Bonilla or McGriff will prove to be trade fodder as the pennant race heats up.
Of the Ultra selections, Tal Light is an interesting pick. If he can progress quickly enough, he may be in line to assume Vininy Castilla’s job after 1998 and enjoy the rarified air of Colorado. Personally, I wouldn’t mortgage the home. I do like Andy Larkin and Chris Peters. Although I like Todd Dunwoody (at the expense of Billy McMillon), no one cracks the Marlins lineup at least until after 1998 when Devon White’s contract expires. Derek Wallace is a nice "flyer" (no pun intended) pick.
The Suns have made no qualms of the fact that they’re rebuilding. Already, some nice pieces have been put into place.
In the outfield, I like Mondesi at 31 cents but can’t sleep knowing that I would have to pay 49 cents for Kenny Lofton at the expense of a pair of 25-cent players. That could have offset the waste of a roster spot that is Billy McMillon. I realize he’s talented but, until traded out of Florida, he has no value. I absolutely love Jose Guillen but the Pirates did him a disservice by bringing him north with the major league club. The Suns did likewise. That 13 cents could have been spent somewhere else.
On the infield, Dmitri Young is a blue light special, as is Scott Rolen and Rex Hudler. Randa and Womack could prove to be inexpensive. Twenty cents may be a little much to pay for Luis Castillo but I almost wish I had.
Greg Maddux stabalizes the pitching staff along with Mark Wohlers in the pen. Schilling is appropriately priced. Harnisch makes for a great story with his insomnia as a result of giving up the chew. Yet, at 7 cents, he’s worth it. I’m also partial to Bobby Jones, especially at 8 cents. Mark Leiter is a journeyman and there’s a reason for that.
In the minors, Bobby Abreu gets his chance and should do well. Derrick May will be ready to play daily when Tartabull gets hurt (and he will). Kerry Wood is probably the top pitching talent in all the minors for either league. The earliest he’ll take the mound in Wrigley is mid-1998. A more likely timetable is sometime in 1999. Ron Wright, Brett Tomko and Brad Fullmer are good prospects although Fullmer needs to cut down on his strikeouts if he doesn’t want to be another Dave Kingman. One pick I really like here is Tim Scott.
The Nightmare spent lavishly on some A-1 talent then wound up with 10 players (43%) ate either 1 or 2 cents. To have a chance, those 10 must come up big. They include Lee Smith, Bill Swift, Jeff Juden, Doug Henry, Julian Tavarez, Tom Prince, James Mouton, Willie McGee, Lenny Dykstra and Mark Lemke. Only Swift, Tavarez and Mouton excite me.
Moises Alou has not proven yet that he’s a 29-cent player although 1997 may be his year. One can’t go wrong with Caminiti, Fernandez and Piazza. I do like John Olerud this year at 15 cents. On the farm, I see injuries, geriatrics and journeymen. It will be a nightmarish year in one respect in 1997.
The Mooners, EMOO’s two-time champion, are back to try for a third straight title in 1997. They will attempt to do so entering the year thin in starting pitching. If they are to succeed, they’ll need assistance from one of their pitchers on the Ultra roster. Try Kevin Ritz or Mark Thompson although relying on Rocks can be hazardous to one’s health. Paniagua has never quite struck me in the right way. Lyons could help later in the year as could Livan Hernandez.
Hundley anchors the plate and three-fourths of the infield is solid. An everyday shortstop would help. The potency of the outfield will depend in large part on Ruben Sierra and Brett Butler. Burks should repeat his ’96 numbers and Ron Gant should rebound if healthy.
Of the minor leaguers on the Ultra list, Darin Blood and Aaron Boone could prove to be solid major leaguers. I love the bat of Jay Payton but it remains to be seen if his arm will fall off or not. Decomba Conner and Vladimir Nunez are intriguing prospects. You can have Trey Beamon.
After all that, here’s my projected finish in 1997:
This Page hosted by get your own free homepage