|
EMOO NEWS |
|
EMOO NEWS |
Vol. III, Ed. I EMOONEWS May 10, 1999
The winds of change were in the air at the annual winter owners meeting. While there was only one rule proposal on the ballot, it created quite a stir. To recap, the owners voted 6-5 in favor of broadening the role of the utility player to allow for teams to seesaw back and forth between using that roster spot for an offensive player and a pitcher as deemed necessary by each team. However, seven votes were needed for passage and owner Joe Cox was absent due to illness. During discussions prior to the vote, several owners felt so strongly against the idea that they threatened to sell their teams if the initiative passed. Such a move would be a shame for two reasons. EMOO is as stable as it has ever been and it would be a loss to the league’s strength. Secondly, it always seemed to me that the whole premise behind rotisserie ball was to emulate the real thing. As such, MLB teams constantly make those exact type of moves throughout the season to account for tired pitching staffs, doubleheaders, batting slumps and injuries. I cannot fathom that such a move by our league would cause undue duress on player movement. We have certain owners who already seemingly turn over their entire roster by May 1 as it is. This change couldn’t make things any more difficult. Playing a hunch that Cox would have been the necessary 7th vote, we at EMOO news posed the question and learned that Cox would have, in fact, voted for the proposal. Assuming that the league maintains the same current twelve owners, look for this change to be implemented next year if it comes up for a second vote. As the 1999 season unfolds, each owner should think about the moves he could be making under such a rule when Tuesdays roll around, not to mention the greater freedom to trade that would ensue if an owner could trade an offensive utility player for an extra pitcher without having to dip down into the Ultra roster.
The 1999 auction was held at the Best Western again this year. A total of 151 players were signed to contracts over six hours. Entering the auction, the front runners in returning talent appeared to be the Scotnel Suns, Mudhens and Smart Alecs. The Hawaiian Laze came in with the best collection of underpriced talent and $1.46 to spend, needing hitting the most. The Xpress, the Mooners and the Ruxpins each came in with less than $1.00 already committed to players, making those three teams the drivers of this year’s auction. The Suns entered with only $0.56 to spend while the Herders, Strangers and Jetsons (formerly the Hunchbacks) all had the distinction of bringing rosters to the auction whose total player salaries exceeded their value on auction day, the Herders by 47% by EMOO News’ formula. The Ruxpins and Gamecox each needed eight pitchers while the Mooners needed five outfielders and the Ruxpins and Jetsons four each.
The Mooners clearly threw their money around early on while the Ruxpins held back initially. The Gamecox reserved a little too much of their money as well and probably did not get all the value they could have from the auction. For the first time in four years, the Smart Alecs finally made good use of their money and walked away with two of the three players they had hoped to obtain (Brian Giles and Robin Ventura, missing out on Ismael Valdes who’s price tag ballooned well above the 15 cents or so that the Alecs were willing to pay for him). The vote for the best auction may very well have gone to the Georgia Jetsons while the Mudhens must earn consideration as perhaps the worst bidder at the table this year. What follows is a rundown of each team’s outlook for 1999 as well as a quick look beyond, taking into consideration minor league players chosen in the Ultra draft.
The Wayfarin’ Strangers look like this season’s cellar dwellar. Three pitchers won 10 or more games last season (Randy Johnson, Francisco Cordova and Woody Williams). Sterling Hitchcock must prove his strong ’98 finish was no fluke and Shawn Estes must find the strike zone while losing the voices in his head (totally Wayfarin’). The staff lacks a closer. If Estes rebounds and the others stay true to form, the ERA, CR and wins may be competitive but expect a one or zero next to the saves column. The hitting, however, is where the Strangers will most feel the pain. Aside from Barry Bonds, there are no studs on the roster. Shane Andrews, with 25 home runs last season, is the 2nd best HR hitter but he sported an average of .238 last year. Jim Leyritz will be worth his 6 cents as will Brant Brown at a penny. Warren Morris has a huge offensive upside but we won’t begin seeing it until after the All-Star break. Luis Castillo, at 11 cents, is questionable. With enough SB, though, he may earn his keep. Rondell White should improve on his ’98 numbers with the possible exception of SB. Our sleeper here is George Arias while Aaron Boone has yet to do anything to impress the EMOO News staff. Down the road, a healthy Alan Benes at 4 cents would fit nicely into the rotation for late ’99 or 2000. On the farm, Chad Hermansen is less than a season away from calling Pittsburgh home for a very long time. OF Eric Valent was a part of the same UCLA team with Troy Glaus that played in the CWS in ’97. He was also the compensation for losing J.D. Drew to the Cardinals. We like Valent. Other notable minor leaguers include Pat Cline (who honestly has leveled off somewhat), Chad Meyers (the ex-Creighton Bluejay who could steal 40 bases in the bigs) and pitcher Nate Bump of the Giants (the Giants tend to select polished college pitchers on draft day as a means of speeding their major league debuts). Both Paul Wilson and Juan LeBron are out for the season. The Strangers continue to be an enigma since joining the league, borrowing from the Xpress book of management. Until a gameplan is created and followed up on, the Strangers will see a pennant when the Cubs do.
From a purely statistical standpoint, the Gamecox are an 11th place team. With that said, can we tell the world exactly how much we like what owner Joe Cox is doing with this team? Four pitchers won 10+ games last season. Only Jeff Brantley saved more than 10 games. Yet, Jason Christiansen, John Rocker, Ricky Bottalico and Brantley each have the potential to save 20 or more this season if the pieces fall into place. For 14 cents and 15 cents respectively, the guess here is that at least one of them will more than earn their salary and become a keeper for 2000. The Gamecox could wind up dealing from a position of strength with its relievers. The team ERA and CR leave something to be desired for 1999 barring turnarounds from Livan Hernandez and Steve Avery. Steve Woodard will continue to improve with experience. Carlton Loewer scares us though. While we like Ismael Valdes, we don’t truly like him at 22 cents. At the plate, this team is brimming with potential. Where to start? While most would say the outfield with studs in the making Vlad Guerrero and Andruw Jones (can’t help reminding everyone they were both groomed in the Smart Alecs’ organization), that’s too obvious. Check out the corners of 1B Sean Casey and 3B Adrian Beltre. Beltre was the 1st player ever selected as a 15 cent ultra player while still a minor leaguer. Last season, the Dodgers called him up and he received vast playing time while he was looking 20 years old straight in the face. Expect him to earn his 15 cents this season and perhaps more. Like Warren Morris, compare the pre All-Star numbers with the post All-Star numbers when the season is done. As for Casey, the man can hit---plain and simple. The power will come with age. In the meantime, expect .285 or better with a ton of doubles and very few slumps along the way. Veteran Eric Karros rounds out the corner positions quite nicely at 20 cents. The middle infield doesn’t compare although Jose Vidro has a small upside if he can ever translate his winter statistics into the summertime. Michael Barrett is the Gamecox’s top rookie of ’99. At 2 cents, he’s a steal who would probably go for 10 cents as a catcher next year or higher if he qualifies as both a C and a 3B. But, yes, the OF is where it’s at. Jones and Guerrero make for a strong one-two punch although Jones must improve the mental part of his game to keep up with Vlad. Dmitri Young is solid. If any of his numbers change, it might be the HR as some of his doubles find their way over the wall with experience. Ruben Rivera’s time has come to either put up or shut up. Personally, we find him suspect. Moises Alou will not help in ’99 but, at 12 cents, will be a monster steal for 2000 and will combine with Guerrero and Jones to form a murderers’ row in the OF next season. Lastly, Mike Cameron has a great upside provided he learns to make contact. Watch his strikeout totals and proceed accordingly. The Gamecox mined the ultra draft for some of the top prospects for a 2nd straight year. This year’s bounty includes Alex Escobar (a potential 30-30 player), Brad Penny and John Patterson (quite likely the 1st two homegrown D-Back pitchers to make an impact) and Met standout Octavio Dotel (cross your fingers that the Mets don’t blow out his arm like they’ve done with so many others of late). But it doesn’t stop there. There’s also Julio Ramirez, Jason LaRue, Guillermo Mota, Wes Anderson, Ron Belliard and Lance Berkman. The only problem for the Gamecox will be figuring out a way to keep as many of these players as possible or trading some for value elsewhere.
In 10th place, the Ruxpins find themselves in territory they have not visited for quite some time. In a rebuilding mode, they selected a bevy of power arms for the bullpen, spent 9 cents for Andres Galarraga and built a young infield with loads of potential. The starting pitching, led by Jon Lieber, Carl Pavano, Miguel Batista and Jesus Sanchez looks to be inconsistent. Lieber has shown glimpses of being a solid pitcher but has never put together a string of strong outings. Batista and Pavano play for the Expos. Batista could surprise but Pavano is still at least one year off from blossoming into the pitcher many believe he’ll eventually become. The same could be said for Sanchez. Scott Williamson and Kevin McGlinchey are high on EMOO News’ list of young relievers. Benitez and Mantei will both be worth some saves in ’99, Mantei as the main stopper and Benitez by picking up a few when John Franco needs a rest. Offensively, the Ruxpins rank as the 3rd best lineup in our eyes (obviously, it’s the pitching dragging down this year’s outlook). Jason Kendall will duplicate last year’s numbers although the RBI may be down if the Pirates are adamant about batting him leadoff. Travis Lee and Fernando Tatis will put up better numbers in ’99. Tatis, in particular, will give the fans in St. Louis someone besides Mark McGwire to cheer for. Edgar Renteria’s stolen bases may be down after being injured in the spring but Wilton Guerrero may offset that with improved numbers of his own in ’99. If Felipe Alou and his brother Vlad can’t help Wilton turn the corner, there’s no one else in baseball who can. If given enough AB, we like Kurt Abbott at 3 cents. Matt Williams has seen better days but, if healthy, should still be a solid contributor. The enigmatic Gary Sheffield has settled into what you see before you, a .280 hitter with power and some speed. He’ll never be the player his potential led observers to think he’d be and he’s consistently overpriced. But, yes, he’ll produce if he’s not pouting about his facial hair or whether he’s playing left field vs. right field. Ray Lankford, healthy or not, will be hard pressed to improve on last year’s numbers. We keep waiting for Eric Davis to slip but, like Ponce DeLeon, he seems to get younger rather than older. We’ve always liked Jeffrey Hammonds but he’s been injured so often over the past six years that we’ve lost hope of his ever truly being the player he was coming out of Stanford. The edge is gone. In the Mets geriatric outfield, Roger Cedeno could be a steal at 3 cents. Lastly, Galarraga serves as a great bargain for ’00. In the minors, J.D. Drew will get a quick call up from owner Jim Birkel. Rick Ankiel could be in St. Louis by September depending on injuries, progress and whether the Cards are contending. Steve Parris and Aramis Ramirez could help at some point. Down in A ball, Rafael Furcal is said to have 5 tool potential. I have my doubts about his power but his speed and defense alone will get him to the bigs and help him carry a decent average. His timeframe is a couple years away still. While I can’t explain it, there’s just something about Corey Patterson that I’m not sold on. The Ruxpins, under solid management, will slowly rebuild but the results will not be seen this season.
Our 9th pick, the Georgia Jetsons, had an outstanding auction and has the 4th best offense in our eyes. Like the Ruxpins, it’s all about the pitching. Scott Radinsky and Gabe White saved 22 games between them last year but neither is the main closer. It’s worth noting here that the only top contender with more than one legitimate closer (or in some cases, even one at all) is the Hawaiian Laze. This could be the year, barring desperate trades, that the EMOO champ finishes the year in the middle of the pack for saves. Since the majority of teams have so few closers, the impact of not having one is reduced. The Jetsons’ starting pitching consists of Steve Trachsel, Donovan Osborne, Chan Ho Park, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Millwood and Russ Ortiz. Trachsel has been very up and down while Osborne is actually a pretty good pitcher. The negative on Osborne is that he’s injury prone and doesn’t typically last longer than 6 innings. Millwood should progress and Ortiz may look like Millwood as a rookie (which is not a bad thing). We continue to love Chan Ho but wish he’d prove me right already. We still say he’s a potential Cy Young winner. Vazquez should have been in AA last year and AAA this year. With that said, we like him because he proved in the minors that he could find the plate. As a rookie last year, he gave the hitters too much credit and nibbled. He’s two years away from really contributing. Offensively, we keep waiting for Chris Widger to bloom but we’re not a big Bobby Hughes fan. Brad Fullmer needs to improve defensively or else he’ll see his AB reduced. We predicted Brett Boone’s season in’98 but anything can happen in ’99 in a new environment with Atlanta. Barry Larkin is a favorite but will never again see the numbers he posted in the mid-‘90s. At 24 cents, he’s overpriced this season. Jeff Cirillo is solid. What you see is what you’ll continue to get-nothing more, nothing less. We’re also big on Marlon Anderson and still lament the fact that he was on our Ultra short list for drafting purposes each of the past two years yet we kept leaving him for next year. However, 19 cents is indicative of a strong first week and he’ll prove to be overpriced. Watch for him to be back in next year’s pool. Bobby Abreau is a huge bargain at 15 cents as is Ellis Burks at 18 cents (if his knees don’t give out). Marquis Grissom is on the fast road to retirement. Reggie Sanders continues to be an enigma I’d rather not have to gamble on and Henry Rodriguez is worth having---until the All Star break. At 3 cents, Bill Mueller is a very nice fit. But the one player we like most is Mike Lowell at 1 cent. Scott Rolen comes to mind when I think of Lowell. From the Ultra roster, Shawon Dunston and Manny Alexander are great to have because of their flexibility. We think Dunston will stay healthy and hit in ’99. Alexander may be healthy but he’s not much of a hitter and never will be. When healthy, Cal Eldred will gobble up innings like PacMan gobbled whatever the hell he gobbled. Mostly, we see serviceable major league replacements but little for next year. The exception is Carlos Hernandez at 2 cents. That’s a nice move for someone who’ll do no less than platoon in ’00 with Ben Davis. We’re still open minded about Jason Grilli. Lastly, while the Dodgers have shown they think little of him, we really like Adam Riggs and long for the day when he’ll be delivered from the purgatory of Albuquerque in favor of an organization who recognizes his talents. While the Jetsons could finished 5th or higher in all 4 offensive categories, their ERA and CR could be near the very bottom. All in all, this team could be interesting.
In 8th place, we find the Mudhens. Granted, everyone sees talent differently but we were much higher on this team prior to the auction than after it. It seems like an opportunity was lost along the way and what was potentially a contending team now appears to be a middle of the pack one. The roster is balanced between pitching and hitting. Offensively, they lack HR punch while, on the mound, they’ll be low in saves, ratio and ERA. The Mudhens break camp with seven starting pitchers and a pair of relievers. While he’s only a penny, we wouldn’t touch Mark Gardner with a forty one and a half foot pole. Shane Reynolds and Al Leiter are solid. Daryl Kile scares us at any price although he’d scare us less at a nickel. Hershiser is no longer the "Bulldog" and Chad Ogea must show he can stay healthy. Armando Reynoso could be a value at 2 cents. In the pen, Darren Holmes could wind up as the closer in Arizona and pay big dividends but Bob Wickman could just as easily lose his job in Milwaukee. Offensively, Jorge Fabregas will have a better year in ’99 while Brent Mayne will be hard pressed to repeat his ’98 numbers (such as they were). The rest of the studs are obvious: Todd Helton, Vinny Castilla, Craig Biggio and Derek Bell. Helton’s numbers will get better for the next four or five years, Castilla’s will plateau (but what a plateau), Biggio’s will drop just slightly and Derek Bell’s could drop off to .290-15-85-10 (just a hunch). While those are decent numbers for Bell, that’s still a drop of 25 points, 7 HR, 23 RBI and 3 SB. Jeff Blauser has had one good year in three, Bill Spiers is valuable in Houston at 1 cent and J.T. Snow will be an interesting experiment, giving up switch hitting. For a 19 cent 1B, Snow is OK. Lou Collier could just as easily be Lou Merloni. We like Dave Delucci but foresee his AB dropping from 416 to 175 in ’99 with all the new free agents in Arizona. Todd Hundley has a good upside and, at 13 cents, is competitively priced. However, he’s also still an unknown in light of his injury. Can he play catcher eventually like the Dodgers hope? As an OF, his value drops off. Doug Glanville is solid but the Mudhens may have gotten more value by renewing his contract for one less season, then taking the savings and using it for a better player elsewhere. After all, 2002 is a long way off. It would suck if he got traded to the AL or had a career ending injury. Lance Johnson is fast becoming the tin man. At 20 cents, you know he’s not going to hit for power so his wheels better get him from 1st to 2nd 35 times this season. Here’s who we like from the Ultra roster: Scott Sanders, Paul LoDuca (great pick since Hundley is on this roster), Swindell, Alan Mills (can pitch long, short, or close), Joe Nathan and Ben Davis. Alex Gonzalez will start in Florida this season but put up very average numbers. Aside from Gonzalaz and Davis, there are no future players. Yes, that includes Abraham Nunez. The Mudhens’ theme for 1999 could very well turn out to be "Paradise Lost."
The Flyers are our choice for 7th place. Yet, we have a feeling that this team could be a sleeper in ’99. Offensively, they could be among the best in the league with the exception of team speed. Molasses runs quicker. On the plus side, they have so much power potential, they could parlay that into a speedster along the course of the season. Based on ’98 numbers, the Flyers are 52 HR ahead of the next best HR hitting team, the Smart Alecs. The weakness within the pitching staff is Jason Bere and Bill Pulsipher. Pulsipher shows glimpses but gives up too many dongs. Bere was wild even before his arm injuries of a few years ago. Only Rich Loiselle is a proven closer and he’s on the way out in favor of Mike Williams or Jason Christiansen. The anchors are Tom Glavine, Darren Driefort, Jason Schmidt, and Dustin Hermanson. Hermanson is the real deal, Glavine is Glavine and Driefort is an up-and-comer. Schmidt tired as ’98 went along but should be stronger this year. Offensively, don’t expect Greg Vaughn (50) or Javy Lopez (34) to repeat last year’s power numbers but they’ll still contribute plenty. Mike Lansing will have the sort of year in ’99 that everyone anticipated in ’98 while Desi Relaford will also improve his numbers. Ken Caminiti will drop off a little, making his 25 cents a borderline value. Sean Berry is not the 1B of the future in Milwaukee, nor is Dave Nilsson. Look out for Damien Jackson. In San Diego, he has a golden opportunity to unseat either Chris Gomez or Quilvio Veres. Jeremy Burnitz’s HR numbers will drop but just slightly. His SB could increase a few. Tony Gwynn will still hit .325 but don’t expect another 16 HR. We think Ron Gant and Reggie Sanders are really the same person. Even as teammates in Cincinnati, how often were they both ever healthy at the same time? We can still remember Gant as a young 2B for the Braves circa 1988. What a waste. Glenallen Hill, at a nickel, is a great pick and Ryan Klesko could be ready for a bustout year. On the Ultra roster, the best of the pitchers are Randy Wolf, Luis Rivera and, yes, Jason Isringhausen. Fernando Seguinol is a good pick who could help later in the year or definitely in 2000. Randall Simon is a very solid hitter who would be an even better one if he showed patience at the plate. Terrance Long needs to work on shortening his stroke, Milton Bradley must learn to control his temper and Jackie Rexrode is supposed to be "all that" but is still barely 20 years old and in A ball. Kevin Gibbs may be a 5th OF at some point in LA. We like Gary Matthews Jr’s pedigree. But the kid we love above all is Pablo Ozuna, the shortstop Florida insisted on in the Renteria trade. Ozuna will either replace Gonzalez at SS by opening day 2001 (if not sooner, perhaps as early as opening day 2000!!) or else Castillo at 2B. The biggest drawback to the Flyers talent pool currently is that (with one or two exceptions) the best players become free agents after the season. Others, like Gwynn, Gant, and Caminiti, have already peaked. This team will go as far as their pitching carries them.
In 6th place is the team that won’t go away. Like the cockroach, the Mooners just keep coming back for more, always in contention it seems. This season, the Mooners began with nearly an empty slate, allowing owner Roger Minnick to demonstrate his true ability for judging talent. He came away with a team that will be competitive on the mound but will fall behind offensively as the season progresses. On the mound, Curt Schilling and Pedro Astacio are the only two 10 game winners. Expect to see Astacio bounced up and down from the active roster more often than a baby on his grandpa’s knee. Chris Peters is a pseudo starter and Kent Bottenfield will fill whatever role the Cardinals are thinnest at. No less than seven pitchers had at least one save last year. Our hunch is that the Mooners are counting on a surplus of saves early in the season followed by a trading frenzy where they’ll attempt to command top dollar. The only problem is that so few contenders have an edge in saves that acquiring one may not be as necessary as in some years. But here’s the shopping list anyway: Dave Veres, Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Cook, John Franco, and Juan Acevedo. Wins could be a forgotten stat this year for the Mooners. Offensively, an EMOO softball team could put equal numbers to the OF combo of Turner Ward, Rich Becker, and Angel Echevarria. Bernard Gilkey was due for a rebound but had the misfortune of watching the D-Backs sign Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez while trading for Tony Womack as well. Sammy Sosa was a stud, continues to be a stud and will still be a stud five years from now. However, he will NOT hit 66 homers again. In fact, don’t expect 45 this season. His RBI totals will also drop from 158 to closer like 120. So, the question to ask is, "Where will the extra production come from?" The only player likely to significantly improve his numbers in ’99 is Tony Batista (this does not include Benito Santiago, injured for most of 1998). The others will all repeat their ’98 numbers except for Gary Gaetti who will begin to see what it’s like being a 40 year old everyday 3B. Help on the Ultra roster includes Darren Bragg, John Frascatore, Daryle Ward (if an Astro gets hurt), and David Weathers (can start or relieve and actually had a solid second half in ’98). Aside from Ward, there are no minor league prospects worth touting. The key here is the Mooners’ inate ability to make very good trades. They’ll need it in ’99.
In 5th place is the Xpress. The thought here is that the Xpress have one of the very best pitching staffs in the league but also have one of the very worst offenses. That combination makes them a middle-of-the-pack team in the league. On the mound, the starting rotation of Kevin Brown, Bobby Jones, Carlos Perez, Kirk Rueter, and Kevin Tapani compare favorably with any other fivesome. Scott Elarton will come out of the pen but may also see some spot starts for double headers and in the event of injury to any of Houston’s starting pitchers. In the pen, Rudy Seanez has one of the better fastballs in the league and could be a sleeper with Kerry Ligtenberg out for the year. And, of course, Billy Wagner is worth 35 saves. Offensively, no starter hit more than Jose Hernandez’s 23 HR last year. Greg Myers should earn his 2 cents this season and accumulate more than last year’s 171 AB. Brian Johnson will be hard pressed to repeat his 13 HR since he’ll be splitting time with Ed Taubensee, making his 7 cents a bit questionable. Rico Brogna is solid at 1B (for ’99, at least) while Orlando Cabrera should improve on last season’s performance. Don’t expect Jose Hernandez to repeat. Freddy Garcia for one cent is a good penny spent. We don’t think much of Orlando Merced. He’s lost bat speed and is not the player he used to be in Pittsburgh a few years back. Walt Weiss will get 400 AB and little else. In the outfield, Brian Jordan has become one of the elite OF in the NL and should continue to exhibit strong play in Turner Field while Cliff Floyd blossomed in ’98 at long last. However, he’s tended to be injury prone. Expect fewer SB from him in ’99. Gerald Williams is a solid investment at a nickel. The two wild cards are Rickey Henderson and Steve Finley. I’d be surprised if either player ever again came close to putting up the type of numbers we’ve seen from them over the years. Michael Tucker has been a disappointment since he has a 1st round draft pick for the KC Royals a few years ago. Down on the farm: Owner Craig Gill places an emphasis on drafting young talent. This year was no different. Among the players we like are Angel Pena, Dennis Reyes, Chad Hutchinson (although we don’t think he’ll be quite the stud everyone is making him out to be---call it a hunch), Vlad Nunez (who we think is close to blossoming), Danny Klassan (a pure gap hitter), Kyle Farnsworth (thought by some to be the next Kerry Wood but still a decent prospect despite the over-hype), and Odalis Perez. We also like John Thomson, at least on the road. As for Stan Spencer, there’s a reason he’s 28 and just reaching the big leagues. John Johnstone is solid as a short man. However, Peter Bergeron reminds us of Brett Butler. While Butler was a solid major leaguer for years, he was never the best player for Rotisserie purposes. Why pay 20+ cents for a solid average with lots of SB when one can pay 20+ cents for a solid average, lots of SB plus a few RBI and HR? Anything that’s said about the Xpress must be taken with a grain of salt because, when the season is said and done, owner Craig Gill’s team probably won’t come close to resembling the team we see before us on opening day.
The 4th place Scruffy Nerz Herders are a carbon copy of the Xpress. Both have pitching but lack hitting. Since pitching is more volatile from season to season, a 4th place prediction is precarious. The staff features John Smoltz and Andy Ashby, a formidable one-two punch. Mike Hampton is close behind but tends to walk too many batters and gets himself into trouble as a result. Jose Silva and Dave Mlicki both have upsides in ’99. However, Mlicki is only the 6th best starter on the Dodgers. Scott Karl is serviceable but is only a six or seven inning pitcher. Matt Morris would still be a Smart Alec if he had blown out his elbow. His value will come in 2000 if he recovers. In the pen, Greg Olson and Robb Nen combined for 70 saves last year but Olson still has his doubters. Offensively, the Herders lack overall team speed behind Otis Nixon and will be hard pressed to get another 70 HR from Mark McGwire. Behind the plate, Eddie Taubensee and Kelly Stinnett are both solid. Taubensee’s AB will decrease with the addition of Brian Johnson in Cincy but Stinnett’s numbers may improve this year. McGwire won’t hit more than 50 HR (like that’s a small number or something). Mickey Morandini, Jose Vizcaino and Rey Ordonez couldn’t strike fear into a Little League World Series team. At least Morandini will be worth 12-15 SB. Kevin Orie could be in for an upswing but will have to hold off Mike Lowell after Lowell returns from the season opening DL. Ed Sprague gets no respect but has put up decent numbers at times and has power. The OF is weak, weak, weak. Otis Nixon is good for SB only. In LA now, we have a hunch the Dodger curse will grab Devo and his numbers will taper down. Al Martin may not be in Pittsburgh by the All-Star break. Lenny Harris is a great bench player in the NL but, for EMOO purposes, his greatest value is his flexibility and not much more. Some folks are high on Geoff Jenkins. I am not. Dave Magadan can hit for average. He’s a poor man’s Mark Grace. Of course, Grace is a poor man’s Don Mattingly. How poor can Magadan be? On the farm owner Paul Nerz mixed up the major leaguers with some kids. Mercker, Roque, Santangelo, Springer and Poole will all be warm bodies to be used in a pinch but not worth any big roto salary. Rios, Kyle Peterson and Darr all get the EMOO News blessing but Preston Wilson looks like the black Dave Kingman. J.M. Gold will be an EMOO free agent before he ever reaches the big leagues---he’s merely 18 and a pitcher to boot. Dave Kelton, although a 3B in the Cubs organization (3B is currently manned by a 40 year old), is also still a teenager. While picked 4th, the Herders are probably the team most likely to slip to the lower standings if any team does.
Picked for 3rd, the Smart Alecs continue their history of being in the running and pounding the ball into submission. For the Smart Alecs, it’s the same old song and dance: they will live or die based on the strength of their pitching staff. Denny Neagle will take his changeup to Cinergy field and team with Pete Harnisch in the Reds rotation. They’re both solid. Harnisch, in particular, had himself a very nice 1998. Alex Fernandez is a wild card, coming off of a season long arm injury. If healthy and effective, he’s a steal at 4 cents (stashed away from last year’s Ultra draft). The keys and the question marks are the same: Darren Oliver, Jose Jimenez and Brian Meadows. Oliver has demonstrated flashes of brilliance but has also been known to get shelled as well as injured. Jimenez is not a strikeout pitcher thus it’s vital for him to keep the ball down. He does not walk a lot of batters so, unless he’s Rick Mahler, his CR could be OK. Brian Meadows will improve on his 1998 season when he was rushed to Florida before he should have been. With a year under his belt, look for his ERA to drop from 5.22 closer to 4.00. Mulholland is valuable as both a starter and reliever. Chad Fox has a great fastball but loses focus and has been known to break down. He was originally in the Reds organization. Ugueth Urbina is perhaps the most underrated closer in the NL and, at 15 cents, ranks with Jeff Shaw as an EMOO steal. Offensively, Eli Marrero will surprise people with his speed and should hit 15 homers. He was taught last season by outgoing C Jason Kendall, thus continuing the Smart Alecs lineage of fleet footed backstops. Tony Eusebio is slated to platoon with Mitch Meluskey but is the more experienced of the two. He’s shown the ability to hit for average but has never really gotten the opportunity to play everyday. Kevin Young, given a raise at 11 cents through 2001, is still a bargain. We don’t foresee improvement but we do see a repeat performance. Derrek Lee must lower his strikeouts. By doing so, he’d add 20 points to his average and another 10 HR over the wall. Jeff Kent is a 17 cent bargain, Neifi Perez continues to improve. Within 3 years, he’ll be among the elite NL shortstops (or 2B if he’s moved aside by the youngster Uribe). Mark Loretta is the perfect MI at 3 cents, accumulating 434 AB last year. Robin Ventura has probably peaked but he’s a pure hitter. Pure hitters always hit until they can no longer get around on the fastball. This season won’t be that year. Everyone in the OF hit at least 14 HR last season, led by Mondesi’s 30. Larry Walker, despite missing chunks of playing time last season, still managed to bat .363-23-67-14. Look for 35 HR and 100 RBI but maybe not so many SB. We like Brian Giles to debut strongly in the NL now that he’s an everyday player. With stats like .296-15-76-14, Carl Everett can be a 6 cent player for us any day. Andy Fox put up good number last season as a jack of all trades. With all the new faces in Arizona, though, we’ll have to wait and see Fox’s ’99 value. On the farm, Paul Byrd was waived by Atlanta yet pitched strong down the stretch in Philadelphia. So, will the real Paul Byrd please stand up? Turk Wendell is a solid major league pitcher. Joe McEwing had an outstanding spring. Tony LaRussa likes to have a utility player on his roster that can play 15 positions. McEwing (or Shawon Dunston) could be that man in ’99. The other major leaguers will fill roster spots but little else: Manwaring, Benjamin, A Brown, Kline, and Kurt Miller. The top prospects include Pat Burrell, A.J. Burnett (on the fast track), Marcus Giles (Brian’s little brother), and George Lombard. Kevin Barker could take over for Sean Berry down the road while Ted Lilly will get his turn in Montreal’s rotation. The Smart Alecs made one mistake, drafting Jhonny Perez rather than Santiago Perez of the Brewers. Neverthelss, Jhonny is a SS prospect with a live bat so one never knows. Owner Alex Wassem has stated that he hopes to be in the upper division every year. Barring trades or injuries, he should get his wish in ’99. With some pitching, maybe he’ll even get more than he bargained for.
The 2nd place Suns were last season’s champs, leading virtually from start to finish. Everything went right: trades, few injuries, peak seasons. That’s why some of that good fortune will shine elsewhere in ’99. The Suns still have some of the better pitching in the league but have lost some of their offensive punch. We count four good starting pitchers: Maddux (you’ve seen the best of Maddux; next season his salary will drop to around 30 cents), Jose Lima, Rick Reed and Sean Bergman (who must improve his stamina or else adjust to the hitters who adjusted to him after the All-Star break). Brian Bohanon is worth a penny but is in Coors field. We see the EMOO shuffle in his future (a one, a two: up this week, down that week, up this week….). Brian Anderson will work from the pen this year, at least until he’s traded. He could also start if any of the regular starters comes up lame. He’s a decent buy at 8 cents. Jay Powell should soak up whatever saves Billy Wagner misses out on. Danny Graves is the Cincy closer---for now. Lastly, Mark Wohlers must find the strike zone. But at 2 cents, Scott Nelson’s team is not out anything if Wohlers fails. If he succeeds, the Suns have a 2 cent closer for the next few years. Offensively, there’s not a lot of speed here. Brian McRae (20 SB in ’98) is the leading threat returning in ’99. Mike Piazza and Chipper Jones are the top threats. Piazza’s numbers may drop slightly in New York but he’ll still be the top NL catcher for roto purposes. Chipper just keeps getting better. There’s no reason to believe his production will drop off for another half dozen years. Mitch Meluskey cost 9 cents. This is steep only from the viewpoint that he’s a catcher and he’s unproven. However, he’s proven everything he can at the AAA level. Olerud is a bargain at 15 cents, Counsell is no more than a penny player. He’s definitely not the long term answer in Florida (nor is Luis Castillo). Look for either Amaury Garcia or else look for Alex Gonzalez to move to 2B, making room for Pablo Ozuna down the road. Rich Aurelia showed promise at SS and demonstrated a little pop as well (9 HR last season). Edgardo Alfonso will prove more valuable as a 2B for roto purposes than he was as a 3B. Mark Grudzielanek is a solid roto SS although 19 cents is a little steep. In the outfield, Brian McRae won’t repeat his numbers and he may not last the season in New York. Bobby Valentine really likes Roger Cedeno. Richard Hidalgo will improve his numbers from 1998. Expect 15 HR this year. Darryl Hamilton is a decent everyday player but he should steal more. Bobby Bonilla will be out of baseball within two years. Todd Dunwoody will continue to improve but it’ll seem very gradual in ’99. Check back up on Dunwoody late next year before making a decision regarding his true potential. Personally, we’ve never as much of a Dunwoody fan as a Mark Kotsay fan. Kevin Sefcik can do no wrong for one cent. On the Ultra roster, we like Brian Hunter and Matt Franco in ’99 as role players. Darensbourg has never stood out to us. Telford and Woodall are merely arms on a pile of dirt. Randy Myers could have some value if he ever gets his arm strength back. Byung-Hung Kim is said to actually have been the best pitcher on the Korean national team, surpassing even Chan Ho Park. We’ll see. Wes Helms has always been a personal favorite, but he’s out for the season. Brian Banks holds little interest as does Alex Ochoa. Remlinger and Rich Rodriguez will provide good pitching depth. Courtney Duncan is coming off a bad year. Prospects can’t afford two bad years in a row so keep an eye on Duncan. Jason Wolf and Brent Butler are good middle infield prospects for the Cards while Derrick Gibson seems to have been a top prospect longer than Karim Garcia. But something tells me that Gibson could yet prove to be a decent major leaguer before everything is said and done. Lastly, I know I’m the exception but Braden Looper just does not do it for me. The Suns have the ability to repeat, they have a nice blend of pitching and offense, prospect and big leaguers. If they should fall out of the race, they also have wildcards to trade in Greg Maddux, Mike Piazza, John Olerud and Chipper Jones, each EMOO free agents after the season.
So who does that leave? It looks like the Hawaiian Laze. We were impressed sitting next to owner Richard Wylie on draft day. We liked his pitching even prior to draft day. And the Laze are the only team projected by EMOO News to finish in the top four both offensively and in pitching. The only things missing are a solid #1 starting pitcher and a home run threat behind Bagwell and Rolen. The staff doesn’t appear as though it will win a lot of games. Instead, it’ll save plenty and amass a top notch ERA and CR. The names are Tomko (who we’ve liked for a long time), Holt (coming off a major arm injury), Andy Benes, Omar Daal, Yoshii (who needs to impress Bobby Valentine early or he’ll start to hear whispers about Jason Isringhausen) and Todd Stottlemyre. As the Diamondbacks go , so go the Laze. In the pen, the Laze have DiPoto, who has lost the closer role for now. We like Jeff Shaw but are scared to death of fat man Rod Beck. Offensively, Mike Lieberthal is an underrated hitter who will double his 8 HR from last year. Bagwell is forever close to my heart (he has been quoted as saying that he’ll wear a Smart Alec cap at his Hall of Fame induction ceremony). Tony Womack will fill the void in SB. Of course, the Laze have such speed that I’d be surprised if they didn’t package some of it in a trade along the way. Pat Meares is a nice buy at 6 cents. Scott Rolen lacks nothing on Chipper Jones except the national exposure provided by TBS. Gregg Colbrunn won’t help, won’t hurt. We’ve never liked Quilvio Veres. It’s a good thing I’m not the GM in San Diego. He’d be outtahere. He costs more than Jeff Kent. The OF is eclectic. We see Dante Bichette, trending downward the last three years but still worth .320-20-100-8 in 1999. Stan Javier gets little respect but, at one cent, is more than worth his salary. We personally liked Luis Gonzalez in ’99 but had no room to bid on him. Mark Kotsay is a throwback to Pete Rose’s generation, without the gambling problem. Five years from now, Kotsay will be priced around 25 cents. Marvin Benard showed glimpses of potential late last season but must show he can carry it over for a full year. Todd Hollandsworth could be a sleeper. At 2 cents, who cares if he isn’t? Owner Wylie tends to acquire pitching depth in the Ultra rounds and this strategy has proven useful for him. In a season where he looks to strongly contend, this should serve him better than ever. Among extra pitchers, he picked up Donnie Wall, Chris Brock, Doug Henry, Kris Benson and Jeff Tabaka. All could help out. There’s also Robbie Bell and Bruce Chen. Both are top notch prospects for down the road, Chen perhaps as early as the All-Star break if Odalis Perez struggles. Chris Gomez is a starting SS, Kevin Jordan is a pseudo everyday player and Curtis Goodwin will get his share of AB because both Henry Rodriguez and Lance Johnson are known to break down at times. We like Jason Conti but don’t think much of Jack Howell or Shane Mack in ’99. Ben Petrick is still a year away. Wylie has shown an adept hand at juggling his roster from week to week. In ’99, it may be the difference in winning another EMOO championship.
Four weeks in the making, we finally have the Start of Season issue on the stands. As always, nothing is meant to be personal. It’s just our take on the players and how they stack up in ’99. Since we have yet to win a title, take it all with a grain of salt. But hopefully, you found it mildly interesting.
