11/7 Update:
Here are how Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against Purdue turned out.
1. Boese, Knight, and Ghidorzi
Stratton had a big day against Knight, though this was more of a testament to Drew Brees as opposed to anything Knight did poorly. Brees just thread the needle early and often.
Boese played well and was not thrown at much at all so I presume his coverage was good. Also, credit the Badger staff for understanding this Purdue offense well enough to get Flethcer and Echols matched up with the primary Purdue receivers.
2. Special teams
After an early poor punt by Stemke, this unit was outstanding for Wisconsin: blocked FG, kick off return for a TD, recovered onside kick, great coverage, and solid punting.
3. Stuffing the run
Wisconsin did not have an answer for Brees' mobility, but they took Lowe out of the game early. Tiller obviously conceded the run after having little success in the 1st quarter (a mistake on his part IMO).
4. Control and Consistency
Done to a tee. Wisconsin never trailed and played with poise. Their mistakes were few and far between and they took advantage when Purdue made theirs. They answered Purdue at every key moment with a big play of their own.
PREDICTION
Not as high scoring as I thought, but the flow of the game was much as I anticipated. Alvarez was content to let Purdue beat themselves again, and they did.
11/5 Update:
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against Purdue.
1. Boese, Knight, and Ghidorzi
Alvarez has said that Wisconsin will play no more than 5 DBs at a time. I have confidence that the starting defensive backfield will hold up very well against Purdue's aerial assault. However, how will these three hold up against Purdue's spread one-back attack? If Brees has his secondary receivers consistently open, he will find them.
2. Special teams
Both teams have solid special teams, with maybe a slight edge to Wisconsin. In games that look to go either way, big plays on special teams could play a key role in determining the outcome. Brees is going to get his yards, so making him execute over a long field is vital.
3. Stuffing the run
Purdue is a threat to run and Wisconsin has had some trouble defending the run against the spread offense. They must be assignment sure and take away any consistent run game on Purdue's part. Purdue is tough enough to defend when they can only throw the ball. If they can throw AND run, it is virtually impossible to stop them.
4. Control and Consistency
Playing Purdue involves surviving the wild up and downs that quick strikes can bring. Wisconsin must remain in control of the game, meaning they cannot get down by 2 or 3 scores or allow Purdue to get on any big runs. They must come out and play solid fundamental football from the opening kickoff and match Purdue for four quarters. Playing Purdue means playing four quarters of mistake free and consistent football. They cannot show up for 3 quarters like they did against Northwestern.
PREDICTION
I think Wisconsin can score some points against an ok but not great Purdue defense. However, the going may be tough early as Purdue derives energy from its home field and Alvarez plays it close to the vest early in an obvious effort to NOT allow Purdue to get some big plays early and get into the driver's seat. When Purdue makes mistakes, it is vital that Wisconsin capitalize, and I think they will. In a nail-biter that goes down to the last two minutes, Wisconsin gets an interception late and pulls out a tough one, 38-34.
11/3 Update:
Here is the statistical rundown of the Purdue-Wisconsin game.
Sagarin has the game as a pick 'em. Howell's computer has the game as a 1 point Boiler victory with a predicted score of 28 to 27. Wisconsin has a 48% chance of winning.
Sagarin now has Wisconsin at #11 in the country while Howell has them at 10th.
Here is how the Badgers and Boilermakers match up nationally.
Total offense: WIS 24, PUR 9
Passing offense: WIS 97, PUR 4
Rushing offense: WIS 5, PUR 84
Scoring offense: WIS 12, PUR 16
Total defense: WIS 9, PUR 55
Rushing defense: WIS 21, PUR 83
Passing defense: WIS 29, PUR 45
Scoring defense: WIS 8, PUR 57
Turnover margin: WIS 12, PUR 21
Nationally....
Drew Brees is 29th in passing efficiency and 2nd in total yardage.
Ron Dayne is 3rd in rushing, 4th in scoring, and 13th in all-purpose yardage.
Chris Daniels is 2nd in receptions, 49th in all-purpose yards and 4th in receiving yards.
Vitaly Pisetsky is 21st in scoring and 10th in FG/game.
Travis Dorsch is 21st in scoring and 6th in FG/game.
Kevin Stemke is 48th in punting.
Danny Rogers is 35th in punting.
Nick Davis is 50th in kickoff returns, and 15th in punt returns.
Vinny Sutherland is 11th in punt returns.
Jamar Fletcher is 15th in interceptions.
Adrian Beasley is 15th in interceptions.
Big Ten ranking matchups (unlike last week, WITH some commentary):
WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. PURDUE'S TOTAL
DEFENSE:
Wisconsin is 3rd at 418 YPG while Purdue is 6th at 363 YPG.
COMMENT: I don't see anything here that suggests that Wisconsin WON'T be able to move the ball.
PURDUE'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL
DEFENSE
Purdue is 1st at 464 YPG while Wisconsin is 2nd at 286 YPG.
COMMENT: Something has to give here. Logic would dictate that the Purdue figure fall somewhere inbetween these two figures (at about 375 yards), though I don't think logic applies in this case. I think Alvarez is going to concede some yardage and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Purdue's yardage total in the mid 400's.
PURDUE'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
Purdue is 9th in the conference at 124 YPG while Wisconsin is 4th at 118 YPG.
COMMENT: I don't think anyone expects Purdue to run wild by any means (or even attempt to). The big question is whether or not they can run ENOUGH. These numbers don't really give us an answer. I would put the magic number right around 110 for Purdue. If they get more than 110, I think the Badgers could be in trouble. Keep them one dimensional and I like the Badgers' chances.
WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. PURDUE'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 1st at 269 YPG while Purdue is 5th at 131 YPG allowed.
COMMENT: Purdue's rush defense is underated somewhat, though I don't see any reason why Wisconsin shouldn't be in the neighborhood of 200 yards.
PURDUE'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING
DEFENSE
Purdue is 3rd in efficiency with a rating of 135 and 1st in yardage at 340 YPG while Wisconsin is 2nd in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 98 and a yardage allowed rating of 168 YPG, also 2nd in the conference.
COMMENT: Much like the total offense stat, something has to give. Wisconsin's pass defense has been the strength of the team while Purdue's passing offense needs no hyping. If Wisconsin can keep Brees and company in the 250 yard range I think you can put it in the win column. However, as said earlier, I think Alvarez scraps his normal defense and goes into control mode, resulting in bigger yardage totals.
WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. PURDUE'S PASSING
DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 6th in efficiency with a rating of 126 and 11th in yardage at 149 YPG while
Purdue is 7th in efficieny defense with an opposing rating of 120 and is 8th yardage allowed rating of 231 YPG.
COMMENT: This is the huge wildcard. Wisconsin has been a fairly efficient passing team while Purdue's passing defense is suspect. I would classify these numbers much as I did the Purdue rushing numbers. If Wisconsin can put up 180 or so passing yards, it bodes well.
PURDUE'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING
DEFENSE
Purdue is 3rd in scoring at 34 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 13 PG, tops in the conference.
COMMENT: Fast forward to the turnover question. If Wisconsin can force some turnovers and sustain some drives, their defense should hold Purdue to the upper 20's. If Purdue is allowed to stay on the field and control the ball, look for mid 30's.
WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. PURDUE'S SCORING
DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 1st at 36 PG while Purdue is 7th with 25 points allowed per game.
COMMENT: Wisconsin looks to be a solid bet for around 30 points.
PURDUE'S PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Purdue is 6th in gross average and 6th in net yardage while Wisconsin is 3rd in punt returns.
COMMENT: Davis could have some chances here, though Rogers is known as a decent directional kicker (without a big leg).
WISCONSIN PUNTING VS. PURDUE'S PUNT RETURNING
Stemke's gross average is 4th in the conference, though his net is still 1st. Purdue ranks 2nd in punt returns.
COMMENT: Sutherland is dangerous, but Stemke should negate.
WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. PURDUE'S KICK RETURNS
WISCONSIN 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. PURDUE'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
COMMENT: THIS ONE IS HUGE FOLKS!!!! Wisconsin has the best 3rd down offense in the league. Purdue is the worst at defending 3rd downs. If form holds, Wisconsin should be able to maintain some drives, a very important factor.
PURDUE'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
COMMENT: Basically a wash.
TURNOVER MARGIN
COMMENT: Basically a wash here, though I think Wisconsin will need to depend on them more.
WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. PURDUE'S PASS PROTECTION
COMMENT: I don't see any reason why Brees should expect to be pressured.
PURDUE'S PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
COMMENT: Basically a wash, or at the very least not a big factor given the style of Wisconsin's passing game.
FG KICKING
COMMENT: Edge to Pisetsky. Dorsch has had blocked problems.
PENALTIES
COMMENT: Not much of a factor.
TIME OF POSSESSION
COMMENT: Another key stat for Wisconsin. Purdue has been surprisingly solid in this stat. Slight edge to Wisconsin.
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Wisconsin is 1st in the conference at 48% while Purdue ranks last at 47% allowed.
Purdue is 2nd in the conference at 47% while Wisconsin ranks 3rd at 31% allowed.
Wisconsin is 1st at +7 while Purdue is 4th at +4
Wisconsin is 8th in the conference with 20 sacks while Purdue ranks 1st with 11 sacks allowed.
Purdue is 4th with 25 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 6th in sacks allowed with 17.
Wisconsin is 15 for 17 for 88% while Purdue is 16 of 23 for 70%.
Wisconsin is 7th in fewest penalites with 51. Purdue is 9th with 67.
Wisconsin ranks 1st at 34+ minutes per game while Purdue ranks 4th at 29+ minutes per game.
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