11/17 Update: Here are the game grades for the Northwestern game:
QB: C+
Bollinger had a really tough time with the wind and it affected his passing, forcing the staff to really lessen the emphasis on the pass (which in turn closed up some of the running lanes).
Bollinger only threw 2 of 8 short passes well, which is a pretty poor percentage. His bad throws were generally low, forcing the receivers to have to bail Brooks out more than once. He threw a very bad pick on simple out pass. His two medium throws were ok, with the nice TD pass to Chambers and another nice cross to Chambers in which he showed some nice body control to make a good delivery. His one deep ball was well overthrown.
He did have some nice runs though, with two nice scrambles for first downs and a really nice option run for his TD.
His only real negative in the running game was a muffed handoff (which I still do no know who was responsible for).
He wasn't awful by any means and did make some plays, though he obviously has played better.
RB: A
Ron Dayne did not show a whole lot of his power game, but what he did show is some fabulous footwork. He was very patient and was decisive in his cuts. When it was obvious that Wisconsin wasn't going to throw much, the Cats came after Dayne hard and when this happened, he did a nice job of getting what he could. He did fumble once to get the Cats going in the second half.
Kuhns was excellent again, with his highlight block being on Dayne's second TD run in which Chad leveled two Wildcats on the same play.
The backups didn't do much and drives generally stalled when they were in. Faulkner played a bit early but really blew a blitz pickup. Bennett played the rest of the time (when Dayne wasn't in).
WR: A
Only one big play (Chambers TD), but they caught everything that was thrown their way, including a number of really nice grabs.
Chambers had to fight for his TD. Davis made a nice spin to catch a ball thrown behind him. Brown picked one off the turf.
Ahmad Merritt had a few nice crack block plays to help spring Dayne.
TE: B
Solid unspectacular job. Retzlaff made a nice grab early, but that was the last we saw of throws to the TE. Kuhns has really taken over those patterns in the flat that our TEs have been known for in the past.
The TEs did a nice job of controlling the corner, which is all you really need on many plays (avoiding the big defensive play). Retzlaff has come a long way IMO in his blocking from last season.
OL: B+
The line was dominant early in the game, totally blowing NW off the line of scrimmage. McIntosh, Rabach, and Ferrario were clearing solid holes on nearly every play. As the game went on, NW mades some adjustments in their fronts and took away many of the big gaps.
McIntosh was terrific as always. If you don't generally watch lineplay, I invite you to tape a game and just watch Chris on every play. He always seems to have the right footwork to turn his man and when they need him to fire off the line, he gets good push. He is going to be a good pro.
Casey Rabach had what I thought was one of his better games (minus one holding call and one play where he was beat on a QB draw). He consistently sealed off the tackles and often ALSO got a big push, leaving 5 yard holes smack in the middle of the line for Dayne to run through.
Ferrario was also getting solid push.
Costa had some trouble from time to time, and left with an injury. He is still inconsistent in space I believe.
Tauscher was beat on a pass rush fairly easily, but was quietly consistent.
DL: B-
The line played pretty well for most of the game, not allowing a hole lot off of the initial rushing plays NW ran. However, they did get sloppy late in the game when many reserves were on for the Badgers, allowing a lot of scrambling via loss of containment.
The big problem for the Badgers in general was a complete lack of pass rush. True, the Cats did run basically simple outs, curls, and flairs, but even when Kustok or Krienbrink dropped back, rare was the pressure from the DL.
Favret was able to get some occasional penetration, but much as he has done all year, failed to make many plays.
Kolodziej had some good pursuit early, but wasn't heard from later in the game.
Wendell Bryant made a nice read on a screen pass.
Delante McGrew got some nice penetration late in the game, but usually overran the play, flushing the QB out of the pocket, but allowing him to scramble for some yards. He needs to make the play.
LB: B
Again, a mixed bag. The tackling was generally good and Donnell Thompson in particular showed nice range and pursuit all over the field. He had some tremendous fills, including a key stop on 4th down early in the game. At times, he overpursued (missing a sack once), but made a lot of plays.
Ghidorzi was again the big hitter on defense, laying some serious wood to the Cats throughout the game.
Knight was quite for much of the game, but did make a couple of very athletic agressive plays later in the game (once by blowing up a screen with a big hit).
The main problem I had with the backers was mediocre coverage out of the backfield, primarily on the backs. Of 7 passes where the LBers had primary coverage, I counted only once where I thought the coverage was very good.
Thompson was beaten deep badly, being saved by a poor Kustok throw, whild Ghidorzi had poor coverage on the two point conversion. Thompson and Echols also blew coverage on the long pass down the middle that also would have been a TD if not for a bad throw.
DB: A
Outstanding game. Tight coverage, some big hits, and big plays.
Jamar Fletcher led the way with some nice takling, a big game breaking INT return, and a very athletic pass deflection. He provided blanket coverage and broke well on the ball.
Echols had good coverage (other than the previously mentioned play), but had numerous arm tackles that were broken.
Doering provided his regular sure tackling and solid deep help.
Special Teams: C
Stemke struggled with the wind and had a really poor game punting the ball.
Pisetsky's kicks were pretty good.
Davis muffed one punt and failed to show much on a nice kickoff into the corner of the endzone.
Coverage was good.
10/30 Update:
Let's see how Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against Northwestern panned out.
1. Handling the blitz
Northwestern had some success with Bentley shooting the gaps, holding Dayne to some plays with minimal yards. When Bollinger didn't throw the ball well early, it allowed Northwestern to plug up the gaps even further, leading to a mortal second half on Dayne's behalf. Still, they did manage 200+ yards rushing, well under their average, but enough to control the game.
2. Chambers' big plays
He did have one big play for the last TD and given the scarcity of passes, I guess this qualifies.
3. Surviving Bollinger's turnovers
Brooks did throw his first interception since the Cincinnati game and it did lead to a score. However, it came when the game was pretty much sealed away so it was not costly. When it was apparent that Bollinger was not "on", the coaches really put the passing game under wraps.
4. Not looking ahead.
Mission accomplished. Northwestern deserves some credit for playing the Badgers pretty even on a day when the Badgers were not very inspired. As good teams do though, Wisconsin made the big plays when they had to in order to come home with a solid win.
PREDICTION
Wisconsin was sloppy at times but did what they had to do. Without some poor defensive play late in the game, the score was right where I predicted so no surprise there.
10/29 Update:
Here are Badgermaniac's Keys to the Game against Northwestern.
1. Handling the blitz
Northwestern knows that they cannot simply stand toe to toe with Wisconsin on the defensive side of the ball. I would assume they are going to shoot their linebackers (who are pretty good by the way) in an attempt to make some big plays. This really isn't much different than what Wisconsin usually faces, but still, they will need to make sure they are blitz sound.
2. Chambers' big plays
I don't necessarily believe that Wisconsin needs some big plays from Chambers to win, but I just wanted to include it because I expect Chris to break out with some big plays (of which he has had relatively few of this year..his yards per catch is almost half of what it was last year). He is due.
3. Surviving Bollinger's turnovers
Just as I think Chambers is due for some big plays, Brooks is due for a few turnovers. All QBs are going to throw a pick or put the ball on the ground every so often. Bollinger has not done so in 5 games. He is also due. Wisconsin must play a solid all-around game so that if/when Brooks makes a gaffe, it is not critical.
4. Not looking ahead.
Purdue is next week. Wisconsin needs to play consistent football from the start, keeping that ball rolling for the big game next week. They cannot afford to let Northwestern hang in the game like they did with Cincinnati, allowing the Cats to possibly win with some late breaks. Wisconsin is a much better team. If they come to play, they will show it.
PREDICTION
Wisconsin is playing tremendous football. Northwestern is a rebuilding team with some key injuries. I expect some Wisconsin sloppiness. But I also expect a slow pull-away by the Badgers. Final score: Wisconsin 38-Northwestern 13.
10/28 Update:
Here is the statistical rundown of the Northwestern-Wisconsin game.
Sagarin has Wisconsin as a 19 point favorite. Howell's computer has the game as a 14 point Badger victory with a predicted score of 29 to 15. Wisconsin has a 75% chance of winning.
Sagarin now has Wisconsin at #10 in the country while Howell has them at 9th.
Here is how the Badgers and Spartans match up nationally.
Total offense: WIS 18, NW 98
Passing offense: WIS 94, NW 90
Rushing offense: WIS 3, NW 74
Scoring offense: WIS 13, NW 103
Total defense: WIS 7, NW 83
Rushing defense: WIS 21, NW 83
Passing defense: WIS 11, NW 36
Scoring defense: WIS 7, NW 53
Turnover margin: WIS 10, NW 68
Nationally....
Ron Dayne is 4th in rushing, 6th in scoring, and 12th in all-purpose yardage.
Damien Anderson is 19th in rushing and 39th in all-purpose yards.
Vitaly Pisetsky is 16th in scoring and 4th in FG/game.
Kevin Stemke is 17th in punting.
Nick Davis is 39th in kickoff returns, and 13th in punt returns.
Sam Simmons is 8th in punt returns (though he is injured and will not play).
Jamar Fletcher is 20th in interceptions.
With regard to individual mathcups, Wisconsin dominates in nearly every one so there really isn't much to say other than Wisconsin should clobber the Cats. For the record though, here are the numbers:
WISCONSIN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. NORTHWESTERN'S TOTAL
DEFENSE:
Wisconsin is 3rd at 433 YPG while Northwestern is 9th at 390 YPG.
NORTHWESTERN'S TOTAL OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S TOTAL
DEFENSE
Northwestern is 10th at 294 YPG while Wisconsin is 2nd at 279 YPG.
NORTHWESTERN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
Northwestern is 8th in the conference at 133 YPG while Wisconsin is 4th at 108
YPG.
WISCONSIN'S RUSHING OFFENSE VS. NORTHWESTERN'S RUSHING
DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 1st at 277 YPG while Northwestern is 8th at 175 YPG allowed.
NORTHWESTERN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S PASSING
DEFENSE
Northwestern is dead last in efficiency with a rating of 87 and 10th in yardage at 161 YPG
while Wisconsin is 2nd in efficiency defense with an opposing rating of 98 and a yardage
allowed rating of 170 YPG, also 2nd in the conference.
WISCONSIN'S PASSING OFFENSE VS. NORTHWESTERN'S PASSING
DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 7th in efficiency with a rating of 125 and 11th in yardage at 156 YPG while
Northwestern is 3rd in efficieny defense with an opposing rating of 111 and is 6th yardage allowed rating of 215 YPG.
NORTHWESTERN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. WISCONSIN'S SCORING
DEFENSE
Northwestern is 10th in scoring at 16 PG while Wisconsin is allowing 13 PG, 2nd in
the conference.
WISCONSIN'S SCORING OFFENSE VS. NORTHWESTERN'S SCORING
DEFENSE
Wisconsin is 2nd at 36 PG while Northwestern is 7th with 24 points allowed.
NORTHWESTERN'S PUNTING VS. WISCONSIN PUNT RETURNING
Northwestern is 9th in gross average and 10th in net yardage while Wisconsin is 3rd in punt returns.
WISCONSIN PUNTING VS. NORTHWESTERN'S PUNT RETURNING
Stemke's gross average is 2nd in the conference, though his net is still 1st. Northwestern ranks 8th in punt returns.
WISCONSIN KICK RETURNS VS. NORTHWESTERN'S KICK RETURNS
NORTHWESTERN'S 3RD DOWN CONVERSIONS VS. WISCONSIN'S 3RD DOWN
DEFENSE
TURNOVER MARGIN
WISCONSIN PASS RUSH VS. NORTHWESTERN'S PASS PROTECTION
NORTHWESTERN'S PASS RUSH VS. WISCONSIN'S PASS PROTECTION
FG KICKING
PENALTIES
TIME OF POSSESSION
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Wisconsin is 1st in the conference at 47% while Northwestern ranks 7th at 34% allowed.
Northwestern is 10th in the conference at 31% while Wisconsin ranks 3rd at 28% allowed.
Wisconsin is 1st at +7 while Northwestern is 8th at even
Wisconsin is 8th in the conference with 19 sacks while Northwestern ranks 9th with 22
sacks allowed.
Northwestern is 10th with 13 sacks while Wisconsin ranks 5th in sacks allowed
with 15.
Wisconsin is 15 for 17 for 88% while Northwestern is 10 of 14 for 71%.
Wisconsin is 7th in fewest penalites with 47. Northwestern is 4th with 43.
Wisconsin ranks 1st at 35+ minutes per game while Northwestern ranks 2nd at 31+ minutes per game.
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