Not this time, Aussies
news.com.au

JOHN HOGAN previews this weekend's Davis Cup final, but sees little hope of Australia retaining the trophy
05dec00

AUSTRALIA has to overcome all the odds against Spain to win back-to-back Davis Cup finals on European clay and I cannot see it happening.

Put sentiment aside and look closely at the obstacles blocking Australia winning successive Davis Cup finals for the first time in 33 years.

Put these facts into the melting pot:

Lleyton Hewitt's sub-standard health;

the absence of Mark Philippoussis;

a query over Pat Rafter's shoulder;

the Spaniards' home crowd advantage on a tailor-made slow clay court in Barcelona plus the hosts burning desire to win the Davis Cup for the first time.

Hewitt has contracted a mystery illness which has affected his breathing.

Specialists believe he has a virus in his trachea which has gone to his stomach but they are uncertain.

At the Masters Cup tournament in Lisbon last week Hewitt trounced an out-of-touch Pete Sampras, looked pale after losing narrowly to Marat Safin in two sets and then surrendered a one-set lead before losing to Alex Corretja.

If he couldn't beat Corretja on hardcourt I cannot see him toppling the gritty Spaniard on clay in a best-of-five-set showdown.

Hewitt's only two cup matches on clay were in last year's final. He lost both.

Irrespective of what people think of Philippoussis' commitment to the team and the team's collective feelings about him, he is still a big gun.

And he proved himself in the atmosphere of pressure by leading Australia to a historic 3-2 victory over France in last year's final in Nice.

But he is not there this time as a result of the long feud between him and other team members. And the Spaniards are delighted he is at home.

Without the Scud, Australia has essentially sacrificed an opportunity to switch one of its singles players on the final day.

Under the new rule, substitutes can be used without a medical reason and Spain successfully exploited the rule in the quarter-finals against Russia.

Rafter missed the 1999 final following shoulder surgery and is desperate to get his name on the cup, but the obvious question is whether his shoulder can withstand the strain of playing long singles matches on slow clay.

And he will need to think hard about adopting an all out serve-volley attack as the Spaniards are specialist baseliners who stay back, have big forehands and unload lethal passing shots.

Australia simply cannot afford an injury to either singles player as that would leave only doubles specialists Mark Woodforde and Sandon Stolle as back up players. And let's not forget how strong the Spanish team is – they smacked the Americans 5-0 on clay in a semi-final in July.

No other country in the world has as much depth in men's tennis as Spain – 15 in the top 100 reflects their stock and the fact that tennis in Spain ranks third in popularity behind soccer and basketball.

Spain's captain, Javier Duarte, has yet to declare his lineup but Corretja and the steady Albert Costa are expected to play singles ahead of young lion Juan Carlos Ferrero.

Corretja and Juan Balcells are tipped to line up in the doubles.

Australia must win one singles rubber on Friday to be in with a chance. They have the superior doubles team but I just cannot see them snaring three points.

My heart says Australia but my head says Spain 3-2.