posted by Webmaestro, 7.30.00
updated, 7.30.00
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2000 Florida Gators Outlook and Scouting Report |
| Schedule |
Schedule, of course, is an all-important consideration in determining the outlook for a team.
Conventional wisdom has it that odd-numbered years are easier for the Gators, since it means their
two toughest 90s opponents, Florida State and Tennessee, have to come to the Swamp. That's the bad
news. The good news is: the Gators' lone national championship was in an even-numbered year (1996),
and there is no doubt the 2000 schedule is easier than the 1999 slate.
Look first at who the Gators lose/gain from
the schedule over last year. First, the cupcake games (the first two games of the year) go from
really bad (1999) to really really awfully awful (2000). Drop a MAC contender (Western Michigan)
and an exciting independent (Central Florida) for a team that is horrible even by MAC standards
(Ball State) and a dreadfully dull independent (Middle Tennessee State). The other change is the
rotating SEC West opponent; Florida exchanges Alabama (a legitimate national title contender and
consenesus pick to win the West) for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are difficult to read: they
may be a West contender, but they may also be a bottom-dweller. Undoubtedly, the Bulldogs will
have a great defense, but it remains a question how many field goals they can manage per game.
So the switches make up for the road games at FSU (a probable loss anyway, home or away) and
Tennessee (not nearly as threatening as Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee; the Gators won in
Knoxville in 1994, 1996, and had to play very badly indeed to lose in overtime in 1998).
The cupcake games are fortunate, this year. The Gators will not have a healthy offensive line
until the Tennessee game, with stars Zac Zedalis and Mike Pearson sidelined by injury. Plus, it
will give Spurrier a look at Rex Grossman and Brock Berlin, his two phenom freshman quarterbacks,
to see if one will emerge ahead of starter Jesse Palmer. That, and the Gators need to find a go-to
receiver, in the mold of past greats Willie Jackson, Chris Doering, and Jaquez Green. Perhaps
never before have the two scrimmage weeks been so necessary to the Gators making a run at the
national championship.
Week three brings the Tennessee game with its eastern division connotations. The Volunteers
have the home field advantage, but with a tough opener against Southern Miss, they may not have
the luxury in finding a better quarterback (from a good young group of A.J. Suggs and Casey
Clausen) than sophomore Joey Mathews. Here's guessing that the warm up weeks prove the difference,
and the Gators get a solid 10 point win in Knoxville. Next comes decimated Kentucky at home. The
storyline for the Wildcats will be whether coach Hal Mumme can orchestrate a good enough season
to avoid criticism for his letting Dusty Bonner get away. Bonner, one of the best quarterbacks in
the country last year, was pushed aside in favor of freshman Jared Lorenzen. Lorenzen will have to
be real good to make up for Kentucky's inferior athleticism.
The Gators then face a three-game swing of Western Division foes. The West, after Alabama, is
very difficult to call, because most teams have questions to go along with their known merits. So,
the game at Mississippi State could be tough if the Bulldogs can score points; here's predicting this
may be the Gators' best chance at a shutout outside of the cupcake openers. 9-0 looks like a good win
here. Then LSU and Auburn at home. The storyline for LSU is two-fold: one, can they settle their
quarterback contreversy (and will Josh Booty finally live up to the hype) and two, how quickly will the
Tigers come together behind new coach Nick Saban. For Auburn, the quarterback situation is secure (Ben
Leard), and I'm betting the running game, so long anemic, will be strong this year thanks to junior
college transfer Rudi Johnson. The trouble is on defense, a unit which has been surprisingly bad in
recent years despite some NFL-caliber performers (Takeo Spikes, James Brunbaugh). The West swing will
give the Gators one shutout, one blowout, and one squeaker, but I'm not sure yet whether LSU or Auburn
gets the blowout.
Come the Georgia game, the Gators will be firing on all cylinders, and the Dawgs won't stand a chance.
Florida will have found a QB, found a go-to receiver, collected a healthy offensive line, and Earnest
Graham will be putting up Erricht Rhett type numbers at running back. Yes, Quincy Carter may make a few
plays, but here's predicting that Alex Brown and Company will have him eating almost as much turf as
Tee Martin did in 1999. That despite the good tackles that Carter will employ.
The game at Vanderbilt will be no picnic. In 1999, the Commodores had the ball late in the fourth
quarter, down 13-6, and failed to score the tying TD in the Swamp. With the game in Nashville this year,
and Woody Widenhofer maybe going to his better quarterback (UF transfer Tim Olmstead), the Commodores will
be no pushover. I'm predicting, in fact, that Vandy pulls off a huge SEC upset in 2000: but this ain't it,
baby. Gators prevail 24-13.
South Carolina, I dare say, need not be mentioned. Florida may have a 60 point win going into the game
at Doak. The Seminoles are not unbeatable, particularly if Florida develops the way it can, but at home they
have been all but unbeatable to all-comers for ten years. If the season works out in my should-be scenario,
the two Florida schools would likely be #1 and #2 and undefeated heading into this classic. Florida State's
experience (an advantage that could be reduced so late in the season) and home field should prove the difference
in a two-touchdown win. At least the officiating crew will be an SEC crew.
Steve's pick: 10-1 (8-0) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Positional Analysis |
| Quarterback | Grade: B |
| The grade of B is earned not on the strength of any one arm, but on the potential of three. Senior Jesse Palmer comes off a dismal 1999, in which he was mostly Doug Johnson's understudy. When Palmer did play (half time in the Florida State game, the SEC championship, the Citrus Bowl), he was ineffective. But Palmer did have a tremendous sophomore season prior to a collarbone injury; if he can establish himself firmly as the starter, he might return to his 1998 form. If not, Spurrier could look to redshirt freshman Rex Grossman, a Parade All American who has impressed during the Spring, or freshman Brock Berlin, the 1999 high school player of the year who went 60-0 at that level. With two cupcakes to open the season, you'd have to think Spurrier can find one leader from this crop. |
| Running Back | Grade: B |
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Looking at the uncertainty at quarterback and wide receiver, you might think the Gators could win by running the
ball if only Spurrier knew how to run the ball. Well, don't forget that Fred Taylor carried the Gators in 1997 and
Erricht Rhett, a back from the Spurrier era, is the Gators all-time career rusher, not Emmit Smith, John L. Williams,
Neal Anderson, or any of the other fine, pre-Spurrier rushers in Gator history. In other words, look for Earnest
Graham, if he can stay healthy, to gain at least 1000 yards in 2000. Graham is solid and very strong, if compact
(5-9, 215)--in other words, just the E. Rhett, E. Smith type that looks good running on Florida field. Junior Robert
Gillespie is a competent scatback-type runner in reserve (5-9, 185), who makes some nice moves in the open field.
Florida continues to be excited about sophomore Chuckie Marks.
The Gators may use more fullback sets this season to exploit senior Rod Frazier and junior Rob Roberts, both solid blockers. |
| Wide Receiver | Grade: C |
| The outlook in 2000 looks pretty much the same as the outlook in 1999. That year, the Gators had no returning stars and just a handful of promising youngsters. This year Travis Taylor and Darrell Jackson, assuming they can get rid of their egos and sign a couple of contracts, will be playing in the NFL, leaving Florida decimated at wideout. But the crop looks better than in 1999. Reche Caldwell, Alex Willis, and Brian Haugabrook all have experience, and Taylor Jacobs will likely get more playing time in 2000. After that, there are several gifted freshman that may step up, most notably nationally ranked recruits Kelvin Kight (from Georgia) and Carlos Perez (from New Jersey). Those two were a big part of making Florida's 2000 recruiting class number one, and will have a real chance to contribute in their freshman campaigns ala Jaquez Green and Ike Hilliard. |
| Offensive Line | Grade: C |
| It's a B or B+ group, with a grade knocked off for lack of depth. Florida is razor thin here, and with so many lineman hurt during spring practice that the spring game had to go 8 on 8. So although Florida has two experienced guards in Leon Hires and Erik Strange, and has all-SEC types at tackle (Kenyatta Walker, Mike Pearson) and center (Zac Zedalis), I can't remember a season where injuries on the offensive line weren't a problem, and this year it could mean the season. With young quarterbacks (after Palmer) and running backs, the offensive line really does hold the key to Florida's season. The situation is so bad that the line has recruited defensive players (Thomas Moody) and may yet work in recruits (Max Starks and Jonathon Colon). |
| Defensive Line | Grade: A- |
| While not as deep as the Gators would like, the starters are studs: Alex Brown, Buck Gurley, Gerrard Warren, Derrick Chambers. Tron LaFavor and Kennard Ellis are also gifted athletes and will contribute. The preseason hype is centered on Alex Brown, of course, who destroyed Tennessee but was relatively inept against Florida State and Alabama. Brown has continued to improve, though--remember, he was just a sophomore last year--and should improve on the building defensive end tradition started by Kevin Carter and continued by Jevon Kearse. Look for Brown to be more like Kearse and less like Carter with regard to his decision after the season ends. |
| Linebacker | Grade: A- |
| I love the linebacking situation at Florida. On one hand Andra Davis is the only returning starter, but on the other, the Gators have some young guys ready to come in and wreak some havoc. Matt Farrior is just a freshman, but reports are he has outpaced senior Daryl Owens in the spring and so may earn a starting outside linebacker spot. The other spot will be a battle among Byron Hardmon, Mike Nattiel, and Marcus Oquendo-Johnson; look for Oquendo-Johnson to see most of the action early. |
| Defensive Backs | Grade: A |
| While young, the Gators' secondary should be very, very good. When the front 7 is as strong as it is and the secondary as athletic as it is, Florida should be picking off a lot off passes this season. And that's good: Florida has certainly struggled with turnover ratio in the last two years. Every spot is filled with a returning starter, in many cases of the all-SEC variety: Bennie Alexander and Robert Cromartie have the corners, and Marquand Manuel and Daryl Dixon are the safties. Look for the much-maligned Marquand to have a break out year (he of the can't-hold-on-to-an-interception club will finally hold on when not dishing out Lawrence Wright-style hits). Backups? Only the would-start-anywhere-else Lester Norwood, Todd Johnson (safeties), and Lito Sheppard (corner). There is even-odds chance that Sheppard will emerge as the star of this talented and deep secondary. |
| Special Teams | Grade: B+ |
| Alan Rhine is a returning punter with a good leg. Jeff Chandler has made a number of preseason first team All American teams, and he was the SJS home page first teamer in 1999, above the overrated Seminole Janikowski. (Aside: why is it FSU kickers are always head cases--Gerry Thomas, Dan Mowrey--or morally repugnant--Sebastian Janikowski, Scott Bentley?) What will be interesting is whether the Gators can find a return man ala Jaquez Green/Reidel Anthony/Jack Jackson among their speedy retinue. John Capel is off to the Olympics and won't be available. |