Preseason Predictions (1998)

At the beginning of the season, I picked all of the games for all Division I-A teams in order to produce predicted conference finishes and to guide my preseason rankings. The predicted records included conference championship games but not predicted bowl pairings, an area so uncertain that I didn't want to hazard those guesses (this year). Since the conference championships have now been played and every team has completed its regular season, now is the appropriate time to unveil my postseason 112 rankings, along with an analysis of my preseason prognostication.

The table below gives each teams current SJS 112 Power Ranking, the preseason ranking, the predicted record, and the actual record. The predicted records are color coded to indicate how close I was, based on the table below. In all, 73% of my predictions were correct within two games; less than 9% were way off.

Code	Grade	Off By*	Number	Percent
Red	A	0	17	15.2
Orange	B	1	37	33.0
Yellow	C	2	28	25.0
Green	D	3	20	17.9
Blue	F	4+	10	8.9
* Occasionally I picked a team to go to a Conference Championship that didn't and vice versa, in these cases I compared predicted to actual regular season records.
Overall GPA = 2.28. Not quite a C+ average; I'll have to do better next year (or change the curve)!

#	L	Team	Pre Rank	Pred.	Actual	Notes
1		Tennessee Volunteers	16	9-2	12-0	I still think my 9-2 pick is more realistic than reality.
2		Florida State Seminoles	2	12-0	11-1	My perfect prediction spoiled by a loss to NC State?!
3		Ohio State Buckeyes	5	10-1	10-1	On the money. Typical OSU season; wrong Michigan team.
4		Wisconsin Badgers	15	9-2	10-1	How much less respect can a 10-1 team (from a major conference) garner?
5		Arizona Wildcats	17	9-3	11-1	I believed in Arizona, but not enough, apparently.
6		Texas A&M Aggies	26	8-5	11-2	Real nice season for the Aggies. The first year I felt good about ranking them. My record does not include the La Tech forfeit.
7		Kansas State Wildcats	10	9-2	11-1	Correctly forecasted the Nebraska win but still didn't believe in this team enough.
8		UCLA Bruins	6	10-1	10-1	Why did the media abandon this team after hyping them so much last year?
9		Florida Gators	7	10-2	9-2	Last year's 9-2 was better; 2 losses to FSU and UT looks good on paper and feels terrible in my gut.
10		Tulane Green Wave	37	8-3	11-0	And forget Southern Miss or East Carolina; here is your superstar Conference USA club.
11		Michigan Wolverines	1	12-0	9-3	Last year's coach of the year didn't get his troops ready
12		Arkansas Razorbacks	65	4-7	9-2	Um, wow. Obviously the surprise team of the SEC. Great job by the Hogs.
13		Oregon Ducks	40	6-5	8-3	I'd have looked like a true genius if I followed up last year's nice call on Washington State with one on Oregon this year.
14		Georgia Tech Yellowjackets	14	9-2	9-2	My biggest success this year? Most people had them about fourth in the ACC.
15		Air Force Falcons	34	8-3	11-1	Not Colorado State or Rice. Here is your surprise WAC team.
16		Virginia Cavaliers	19	8-3	9-2	Correct on the Georgia Tech loss and Virginia Tech win.
17		Notre Dame Fighting Irish	39	6-5	9-2	A nice comeback for the Irish. My 6-5 was a bit too pessimistic, but not that far off either, considering some of ND's close calls.
18		Texas Longhorns	30	7-4	8-3	As with Colorado, I was pleased that my forecast of a modest recovery proved correct.
19		Nebraska Cornhuskers	3	12-1	9-3	Osborne, Texas, A&M, Home Field, and KState-- big red loses all their psychological upper hand in one season.
20		Syracuse Orangemen	14	9-2	8-3	A perfect pick but for the narrow loss to Tennessee.
21		Virginia Tech Hokies	38	7-4	8-3	Memo to self: Big East teams go 8-3. They just do.
22		Miami Hurricanes	42	6-5	8-3	How many times do I have to say it? Good Big East teams go 8-3, even if they have to beat UCLA to do it.
23		Georgia Bulldogs	53	5-6	8-3	Another underestimation from me, but Georgia never got a big win this year.
24		Penn State Nittany Lions	29	7-4	8-3	The blunder I made was thinking they would lose, at home, to Southern Miss. Otherwise I had them pegged.
25		Marshall Thundering Herd	44	10-2	11-1	The trick was knowing that Chad Pennington was half of Marshall's Randy Moss-Era success.
26		USC Trojans	22	8-4	8-4	I feel good about this one too.
27		Purdue Boilermakers	50	6-6	8-4	Drew Brees looks like a fitting replacement for Billy Dicken.
28		Missouri Tigers	21	7-4	7-4	They had everything but a breakthrough win.
29		Miami Red Hawks	45	9-2	10-1	How sorry are these guys that Marshall jumped to I-A?
30		BYU Cougars	24	9-3	9-4	Another nice call except I didn't think they'd make the WAC championship.
31		Mississippi State Bulldogs	47	6-5	8-4	The SEC West produces yet another title contender, but only Alabama has won the SEC Championship Game from the west.
32		NC State Wolfpack	77	2-9	6-5	How surprised was I that my preseason #77 beat my preseason #2?!
33		Texas Tech Red Raiders	49	6-5	7-4	The perennial overacheivers overacheive again.
34		Colorado Buffaloes	27	7-4	7-4	Another one to feel good about. The Big 12 needs this team to make a comeback.
35		Kentucky Wildcats	31	6-5	7-4	Same comments as Missouri. A good season, lacking a breakthrough victory.
36		Wyoming Cowboys	35	7-4	8-3	Wyoming had a season to be proud of; forget the inexplicable shutout vs. Tulsa.
37		West Virginia Mountaineers	13	10-1	8-3	Memo to self: Big East teams do not go 10-1.
38		Central Florida Golden Knights	70	7-4	9-2	Wow! Good football from UCF in their second year at Division I-A.
39		Washington Huskies	11	9-2	6-5	Some good wins and some bad losses.
40		Colorado State Rams	8	13-0	8-4	Should've made Tulane my bandwagon team; the Rams were just plain average.
41		Mississippi Rebels	41	6-5	6-5	Thank you very much!
42		North Carolina Tar Heels	9	10-1	6-5	Late surge showed this team was better with QB Davenport healthy, but it was never going to be a 10-1 team.
43		Michigan State Spartans	20	8-4	6-6	Correct on the Notre Dame defeat, but who thought they'd lose to Minnesota?
44		Alabama Crimson Tide	51	5-6	7-4	Better than I expected, but Mike Dubose is going to have to do better to appease Tide fans.
45		Utah Utes	28	9-3	7-4	The WAC was just not an easy conference to pick this year.
46		Oklahoma State Cowboys	32	7-4	5-6	This team dropped off more than I predicted.
47		Southern Miss Eagles	12	10-1	7-4	Got beat by all the big boys this time around.
48		Louisville Cardinal	71	5-6	7-4	The state of Kentucky saw a lot of passing offense, and not just from Couch.
49		Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	63	8-4	6-6	A high powered offense going nowhere.
50		Minnesota Gophers	78	2-9	5-6	Their best season since the Lou Holtz days.
51		Western Michigan Broncos	59	8-4	7-4	On the money but they missed the Championship.
52		Arizona State Sun Devils	25	7-4	5-6	I always feel good letting a bandwagon pass me by just before the bandwagon falls apart!
53		California Bears	58	5-6	5-6	On the money; a good 5-6 club.
54		East Carolina Pirates	33	8-3	6-5	The worst team to almost get a bowl bid.
55		Toledo Rockets	48	8-3	7-5	Toledo never put together a run this year, but managed to put up a fight in the finale.
56		San Diego State Aztecs	64	6-5	7-4	You can still win 7 games recruiting the 15th best player in California at each position.
57		Oregon State Beavers	105	1-10	5-6	Way, way off. A close one against UCLA or they could have gone better than .500.
58		Idaho Vandals	99	5-6	8-3	With a nickname like the Vandals, its nice to see them lead the Big West.
59		Boston College Eagles	54	5-6	4-7	After the walloping of Georgia Tech, I thought I'd made a mistake. I didn't.
60		Louisiana State Tigers	4	11-1	4-7	The biggest gaffe this season. I don't understand.
61		Boise State Broncos	94	6-5	6-5	My dartboard is working well, I see.
62		Central Michigan Chippewas	80	5-6	6-5	Why am I doing so well with my MAC picks?
63		TCU Horned Frogs	102	2-9	6-5	A monster year for the Horned Frogs, including the only team to beat Air Force.
64		Fresno State Bulldogs	62	6-5	5-6	Fresno? No one goes to Fresno anymore. (Name the movie)
65		SMU Ponies	73	4-8	5-7	This team is slowly but surely coming back from the dead (death penalty, get it?).
66		Ohio Bobcats	57	8-3	5-6	An almost-win over NC State to start the year degraded into a subpar season for the Bobcats.
67		Nevada Wolfpack	82	5-6	6-5	Ah, exciting Big West football... where everybody goes 6-5 or 5-6.
68		Oklahoma Sooners	56	5-6	5-6	Just wait. Here comes Bobby Stoops!
69		Indiana Hoosiers	83	3-8	4-7	For awhile, the Hoosiers were pretending they were a good football team.
70		Houston Cougars	88	3-8	3-8	I'm red hot at the bottom of the top 112.
71		Bowling Green Falcons	106	2-9	5-6	A good year for Falcons everywhere.
72		Auburn Tigers	52	5-6	3-8	I predicted they would suck, but who'd have guessed they'd run Bowden out of town on a rail?
73		Stanford Cardinal	76	2-9	3-8	But they did play 3 good ones. (Four if you count UCLA)
74		Iowa State Cyclones	97	2-9	3-8	Opener against Iowa promised better.
75		Duke Blue Devils	81	3-8	4-7	Out goes Spurrierite Goldsmith, in comes Spurrierite Carl Franks. You think these guys miss Spurrier?
76		Rice Owls	36	7-4	5-6	I claim a mulligan on this one; my preseason commentary had the caveat that this team could be great or awful.
77		Clemson Tigers	43	6-5	3-8	And this is the same team that looked so good last year vs. FSU.
78		Rutgers Knights	91	3-8	5-6	The feel-good story of the year? Not really.
79		Northwestern Wildcats	66	6-6	3-9	Gary Barnett could be coaching Notre Dame right now. Nice win over Hawaii (tee-hee).
80		Tulsa Golden Hurricane	89	3-8	4-7	How did they murder Wyoming?
81		San Jose State Spartans	86	3-9	4-8	Are they going to rename the WAC the Collegiate Refugee Athletic Partition after all the good teams leave?
82		Vanderbilt Commodores	55	5-6	2-9	Well, I had too many memories of 24-10 type games against them.
83		Kansas Jayhawks	60	5-6	4-7	This team looks worse every year.
84		Maryland Terrapins	84	3-8	3-8	At least I know my own backyard.
85		Iowa Hawkeyes	23	8-3	3-8	My second biggest blunder. Flip that record around!
86		NE Louisiana Indians	108	3-8	5-6	They beat up on some I-AA teams.
87		Temple Owls	85	3-8	2-9	...and the bad teams go 2-9.
88		Illinois Illini	92	1-10	3-8	Three more wins than last year!
89		Baylor Bears	87	2-9	2-9	Baylor's so easy to pick.
90		Washington State Cougars	67	4-7	3-8	A predictable reversal of fortune for the Cougars.
91		Wake Forest Demon Deacons	68	4-7	3-8	I'll take some credit for this one. Some people had Wake in their top 25. I'd have been exactly right, but even I didn't predict the loss to I-AA Appalacian State.
92		Arkansas State Indians	104	4-8	4-8	What can I say. I know this team like the back of my hand.
93		Akron Zips	96	3-8	4-7	Showed signs of a good offense at times.
94		UAB Blazers	103	5-6	4-7	I thought they could beat Kansas, but they came up a touch short.
95		Army Cadets	101	0-11	3-8	C-USA is no great conference, but Army can hang with the worst of them.
96		New Mexico Lobos	61	7-5	3-9	From WAC Championship to WAC doormat. A huge disappointment. Note: Francione went to TCU.
97		UTEP Miners	109	2-9	3-8	The Miners should do better next year in a watered down conference.
98		Navy Midshipmen	75	4-7	3-8	Should've been 4-7, but Army scored the last 15 points.
99		Pittsburgh Panthers	74	3-8	2-9	Another predictable downturn.
100		Memphis Tigers	72	4-7	2-9	Tennessee was too scared to play them this year.
101		South Carolina Gamecocks	69	4-7	1-10	Brad Scott's 5-year plan ends in flames. I will take credit for making them the lowest ranked of the SEC teams.
102		Eastern Michigan Eagles	107	2-9	3-8	Athalon's #112 played up to my faith in them.
103		Cincinatti Bearcats	46	6-5	2-9	From a bowl game to the toilet in just one year.
104		North Texas Eagles	111	2-9	3-8	Hey, they weren't horrible, just bad.
105		New Mexico State Aggies	112	0-11	3-8	They climbed out of the SJS 112's basement!
106		Utah State Aggies	90	5-6	3-8	Another bowl team gone bad.
107		Northern Illinois Huskies	110	2-9	2-9	Winless last year, the Huskies grabbed the brass ring.
108		Ball State Cardinals	100	3-8	1-10	My pick was too optimistic.
109		SW Louisiana Rajun Cajuns	98	5-6	2-9	With a nickname like Ragin Cajuns, they deserve better.
110		UNLV Runnin' Rebels	79	2-9	0-11	John Robinson, what are you thinking?
111		Kent Golden Flashes	95	3-8	0-11	Ahhh... no.
112		Hawaii Rainbows	93	3-9	0-12	Ahhh.... no.