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Sharing the Wins

"Remember values of Teams can go up or down" - It's almost amusing to see the state of the NFL today and then apply a comparison to the stock market crash of yesterday. While the markets have sunk deeper and deeper it was often stated that too many shares were over-valued.... I can think of a few teams in the NFL this season who should have been given that Tag. So for each of the divisions here's a few hints and tips.
Tampa Bay started out 5-0, of those 5 matches 4 were against teams with current winning or equal records (San Francisco, Detroit, Minnesota, Miami). Not bad, at that point the band wagon started about Pewter Power. Then came that loss in Green Bay, but it was close, and they were the Superbowl Champions. Then came the revenge matches. Both Detroit and Minnesota have since defeated the Bucs placing their Wild Card credentials on the line. Sitting 5-3 Tampa seems to be out of puff a little.
However a look at their forthcoming matches (with Atlanta, Chicago - Twice, and Indianapolis more on them later) seem to suggest it's not impossible that Tampa might yet make 8-8 season. Throw in a win against either the Jets or the Giants away or a win at home against New England or Green Bay and Tampa could end up 9-7... And that just might be enough to get a wild card... But I wouldn't buy stock in them it's too risky.
Oh what difference a year or even two makes. Remember the Superbowl Trip winning TD that never was in Pittsburgh in 1995? Remember that wild card season of last year with all those injuries? Indy were tipped to make the play-offs this year. At the end of last year you might have wanted to invest your support in them.... 9 weeks later of a new season and anything you put in would be worthless. Almost.
Indy aren't as bad as they seem, perhaps if they were playing in the NFC West they'd have at least a few wins - but they aren't and it's the AFC East's job to play the NFC central this year. Right now it doesn't look as if they will ever manage to get it together for a win. It's not that the team are bad, they are just unlucky and partly in a disarray. So if you have stock hold on for next year or simply sell up and move on and I have a team to suggest to you.
The Baltimore Ravens - Sorry the Cleveland Browns... Remember it wasn't too long since the Browns were in the play-offs. Then they signed Vinny Testaverde, then they signed Ted Marchibroda then they started to let Vinny throwing the ball.... result? A 4-4 record. In the next few games they play either high scoring teams who they can enter a shoot out with or low scoring teams who've been unlucky. With Jacksonville and the Steelers and Hous... Tennessee in the division this one could go down to the wire. Gamble on an 8-8 season and stock up for next year.
Over in the once might NFC East there is a under valued team who are starting to shine. While the whole of NFC looks overall weak this season it might be worth a thought to pick the winner of the NFC East. Slowly on the rise with an improving offence is the New York Giants. With a defence that is able to hold teams and a now effective offence they've climbed to 6-3. And a one game lead for the division. It looks as if only 5 wins would be enough for the giants to clinch the division and perhaps 4 would even do. With a 5 game winning streak my money is for the Giants to manage to scrap those wins needed to win the division. Their stock is on the rise with the new manager of Jim Fassel, I'd buy while you can.
In the AFC West there are two teams to watch - forget the Broncos they look good on paper and manage to score the points but with the recent loss to the Raiders and the scare in Buffalo, the rest are getting their measure. The Broncos will more than likely take the division but it will be only a 1 or 2 game lead over rivals Kansas City and Seattle.
Kansas seem to have started their poaching early, going for a San Francisco back-up instead of a starter. In Elvis Grbac they have a good quarterback with more than a few years left in the league, combining with Andre Rison giving a good QB to WR link up. With a speedy and classical running game with Greg Hill and Marcus Allen. Kansas look good for a play off run and could take Denver on the road to the AFC Championship. However Kansas are an expensive team with a heavy wage bill, if you want a hungry team select the Seattle Seahawks.
For the first time since Dave Kreig left Seattle have a Quarterback who is able to win ball games.... he might be old he might be a back-up but he's able to get the ball to Joey Galloway. Warren Moon's 5 Touchdown performance against Oakland showed that it's not impossible for Seattle to manage a winning season. Take your choice here - however remember should either Moon or Grbac go out for the season so do the team.
However if there is one team totally over valued - or known in the trade as "The Hong Kong Stock Exchange of the NFL" it's the San Francisco 49ers. A healthy 7-1 record sure looks good, but then even the London (ahem) English Monarchs could manage a even season if they were in the NFC West. While last year the Jets stank up the league this year 3 teams have decided to share the honour to spare the job of only one coach.

St Louis, New Orleans and Atlanta are currently quaking in their boots incase the NFL decide to introduce relegation possible and they'll find themselves in the WLAF along side other under achievers like

  • The utterly surprising Cincinnati Bengals (no good blaming Dave Shula now perhaps he wasn't that bad a coach!)
  • The woeful Indianapolis Colts
  • The wounded and soon to be coachless Chicago Bears
  • The last gasp losers of Arizona Cardinals.

    That's 7 teams who should be quaking right now. But it's the 49ers who should be preparing to suffer a Washington '96 like collapse. EVERY SINGLE WIN of the 49ers this year has come against one of the other teams in the NFC. With Dallas, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Minnesota, Denver and the improving Seattle to play expect San Francisco to fall down as their offence meets real defences and their defence meets teams who can score. It's not impossible that they could end up with a 8-8 season. Luckily with Carolina looking iffy it's not impossible that 8-8 would hand the 49ers a division title. But don't expect them to last into the new year. Should they make it, it's 1st round and out in the play-offs for the 49ers so if you have stock - sell sell sell.

    So there's the stock tips for 97 based on nothing more than one man's opinion. I summarise....
    Divison Team Current Record Projected Record Stock recommendation
    AFC East Indianapolis 0-8 2-14 Give up for this year and hope for better next year. Even then look to buy a team further down the rebuilding path
    AFC Central Baltimore 4-4 8-8 Think next year for the play offs once the defence settles. Don't give up hope if it they make the play-offs and it needs shoot outs.
    AFC West Kansas/Seattle 6-2/4-4 10-6/9-7 Think Play offs for Kansas, think maybe for Seattle. Think sell if Warren Moon or Elvis Grbac go down with injury
    NFC East New York Giants 6-311-5 Don't plan on Superbowls but then that's what we said back in 1990 could surprise the league buy in now.
    NFC Central Tampa Bay 5-3 8-8 Too quick a rise. Risky hold off perhaps for next year let experience improve. Don't be fooled by quick out of the blocks - good teams are steady teams. Next year think perhaps Superbowl - this year hope play-offs.
    NFC West San Francisco 7-1 8-8 Vastly over inflated sell as fast as you can.

    Disclaimer : Values of Teams can go up or down. The management are not responsible for any loses you incur while using the advice given here. However we ask a share of 10% for any winnings!

    Douglas T. Adamson
    Hosted by www.Geocities.ws

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