Going from Warren to Bush

Michael Kadish
2/2/00
Data Essay
Dr. Turner

In the past half century, Florida's population has increased over seven-fold from two million in 1950 to over 15 million.¹ During this time, the state has seen herself go from a "good ol' boys" government, to a bi-partisan government, elected by diverse coalitions. Now the fourth largest state in population, it is divided up into strong minority factions. The reason for the growth is the same as the reason for the segmented population. The growth is divided into the three large groups of urban working families that moved down to the Sunbelt, senior citizens that have moved down for retirement, and Hispanic immigrants.

It has been these immigrants who have fueled the population growth of Florida. The birthrate in Florida is 13.8 per 1000 people, 38th in the nation², while her deathrate allows the natural increase rate to be only a two- percent increase, forty-eighth in the nation. ³ It is the immigrants who give the state a Net International Migration of .5, ranking it fourth in the nation.

Florida's swelling numbers have caused her dramatic changes. The state was forced to recreate her state constitution in 1968 because the numbers had grown so phenomenally. It should be established that before the new constitution there was disproportionate representation, but it was not an overt example of white citizens afraid to allow black representatives. With the new district lines, there is only one black-majority county, and the black district is a near gerrymander of a district, stretching and encompassing half of the state. This does not mean that the population surge came as an utter surprise to the state. Simply put however, preparations were not taken, until the late sixties, to deal with the population surge.

It is the new citizens, who changed the politics into a more legitimate field, but it is not the presence of a new people who challenged the simple conservative Democrat leadership. Each group added a new element, but more importantly, each population segment has its own division of beliefs, it is the merging of the populations' splinters that allows a bipartisan system to work.

The Urban growth to Florida has been influential. Coming from up north, these individuals certainly have been instrumental in changing the policies to a more honest system. The socioeconomic status of an urban dweller is the general indicator of how that individual would vote; an influx of such workers is not a boon to either party, but adds to both sides.

Many feel that it is the senior influx that has changed the politics of the state. The urban growth is very volatile, with many businesses moving in and out of the state, and workers only spend a limited time here. The statistics that indicate this may be a bit skewed, due to the large number of Navy bases that are, or have been in the state of Florida, with the soldiers only staying at the bases for short shifts. Nevertheless, Florida has a significant population of elders who have moved down here. The median age of 38.3 makes Florida have the average median in the state.⁴ With the aging of the baby boomers, every state in the nation has seen its median age increase every year, and Florida ranks number two in increased age median.⁵ Senior Citizens (over the age of 65) comprise a whopping 34% of the state's population⁶ In the past century average life spans have risen, but the influx of senior citizens to the state can be seen by the fact that in 1950, senior citizens comprised only 8.6% of the population.⁷ With seniors' high turnout at the polls, it was with the help of the seniors, especially after the 1980's when the seniors' strength increased, politics have spread onto a larger playing field. Coming from all backgrounds, they do not vote along party lines, but whomever supports senior benefits generally, or their older beliefs.

Many might feel that the majority of the population growth would be due to Hispanic immigrants. This is not as true as it may seem. Just as Florida is fourth in total population, it is fourth, as well, in Hispanic population. It ranks sixth in Hispanic percentage. With a 15% share of the population, however, mostly centralized down south, the Hispanic influence is significant.⁸ However, there is a main difference between Florida, and the five states that have a higher Hispanic percentage. New Mexico, California, Texas, New Jersey, and Nevada (in order)⁹ all have Hispanics of mostly one origin. All but New Jersey have an Hispanic population consisting mostly of Mexicans, due to the proximity to the border. New Jersey, (and New York who ranks eighth) have a large "Puerto Yorkan" community. Florida however, draws from different Latin and South American nations.

The 1967 Florida Statistical Abstract (the oldest in the school library) did not take statistical information regarding Hispanics, (to this day, it does not contain information in regards to black or white Hispanics. Hispanic data was first entered as a means for data was in the 1979 edition, with a population of 668,000 "persons of Spanish origin." ¹⁰ ) However, it did have data in regards to immigration. In 1964, there were 38,926 Cubans, with 6,937 of them becoming citizens, and 1,304 Mexicans living in the state, with 97 becoming citizens.¹¹ Those were the only two nations Hispanic nations who were listed in the data, however, there 94,790 citizens from "other" countries.¹² Florida's closest foreign neighbor is Cuba, and in 1964, Castro had only been in power for five years. However, Florida's Hispanic population remains diversified. In 1996, there were over a thousand immigrants from Brazil, Columbia, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela. ¹³ (All of the above, regardless of the nations' languages, are considered "Hispanic.") The Hispanic immigrants comprise 68% of immigrants to the state (as oppose to 35% nationwide). ¹⁴

The vast majority is still from Cuba, and last year alone saw two international news events that took place in Florida in regards to Cuba. Nevertheless, all nations, south of the United States, in the New World, are lumped together as Hispanic. However, "Hispanics" do not vote along party lines. There is some propensity towards Hispanics from certain nations voting in a similar manner. Mexicans generally vote for Democrats, Cubans are generally more conservative, etc.¹⁵, but they are generally trying to band together, in supporting whomever will grant the Hispanics the most respect.

To make the Latino vote even more ambiguous, there is the issue of when they immigrated to the States. With many Latin and South American nations going through civil wars, those who flee to the US are the peoples whose views are being oppressed at the time. When Cuba was under Bautista, those who fled to the US were highly anti-capitalist, however after Castro came to power, those who fled here have more of an inclination towards conservatism, with strong resentment towards Communism.

The African-American population, in regards to percentage, has decreased over the past fifty years. In 1950, the "Negro" population was registered as 603,101, or 22% of the state. ¹⁶ In 1998, Florida's black population was 15.8% of the state.¹⁷

Interestingly however, of the upper twenty-five populated states, Florida has the highest increase of black percentage, since 1990. This appears odd; there has only been one majority black district in the state, that has not changed. This data does not seem to make sense, until it is analyzed with the Hispanic immigration.

With the Hispanic immigrants to the US, came those from the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica, who are generally black. It was not until the 1990 census that the "Hispanic" category was no longer an "other." So, now that the black population is growing, but it is not a solid black population, it is growing from the influx of Hispanics.

Florida's population is not simply different minorities against each other. These groups all seem to have intramural splits, and the political field consists of the collaboration of the parts of these groups. Florida has gone from an average, but growing, southern state with a mostly homogenous voting population to the fourth largest state, with definitive segmented segments.