I. Introduction
No storm combines duration, size, and violence more destructively than a hurricane. Driving winds, torrential rains, and lethal storm surges combine to threaten coastal and inland communities each year. Hurricanes can pack sustained winds over 100 MPH, which can topple trees, homes, cars, and turn loose objects into deadly projectiles. Most New Yorkers believe that hurricanes cannot happen here. This is simply untrue. Devastating storms have hit our region many times in the past, and remain a potent threat to the entire metropolitan area. One section of New York that is extremely vulnerable is the Rockaway Peninsula. The evacuation of the Rockaway Peninsula in the event of coastal storm is an enormous challenge to city planners. Evaluating such a task would not be complete without examining the following issues:
II. History of Hurricanes and Coastal Storms in New York
According to the Hurricane Damage Mitigation plan (Long Island Regional Planning Board, 1984), several hurricanes and fifteen tropical storms have made landfall in this area since 1886. "Nor’easters" (northeast coastal storms) have also caused significant water-related damage nearly every year. A hurricane that struck New York City on November 24, 1950 -- "The worst storm ever to hit Staten Island"-- caused millions of dollars in damage to that borough. Since 1984, the southeastern New York State coastline has been adversely affected Hurricane Gloria on September 27, 1985 and Hurricane Bob on August 19, 1991. The intense nor’easters of October 30-31, 1991, December 11-13, 1992, March 13-14, 1993, and October 19-20, 1996 have also had a major impact. The severe damage caused by the October 1996 storm prompted President Clinton to issue a Major Disaster Declaration for New York City, making the city and its residents eligible for Federal Disaster Relief.
"Epic" hurricanes, though rare, have ravished New York more frequently than previously believed. Major hurricanes have hit New York in 1635, 1815, 1821 and 1893. During the devastating hurricane of 1821, Manhattan, the Bronx, and Westchester were hit particularly hard. During the storm, the tide from the East River actually met the tide from the Hudson River across lower Manhattan, rising 13 feet in one hour. According to Dr. Nicholas Coch, a coastal geologist and professor at Queens College, the fact that this occurred at low tide (in areas that were sparsely populated) "is the only thing that saved the city." The 1893 hurricane destroyed Hog Island, a resort off the coast of the Rockaways, devastated lower Manhattan, and destroyed more than 100 trees in Central Park.
The last epic hurricane to strike the Eastern Seaboard killed over 600 people in New York and New England in 1938. This storm caused massive flooding, which knocked out electrical power along the new IND subway line. All areas above 59th Street in Manhattan and the Bronx were affected. An eyewitness even claimed to have seen fishing boats normally docked in Sheepshead Bay being blown out to sea off the coast of the Rockaways. The portion of the 1938 hurricane that hit New York was the traditionally weaker "left side," which was 75 miles from the eye of the storm. A hurricane that hits New York from the more powerful "right side" would cause greater devastation. More recently, Hurricane Gloria hit New York in 1985, causing millions of dollars in damage. If Gloria had made landfall at high tide, the surge would have been 3m (10 ft.) above sea level at the Battery, setting a new record for this location. In fact, a new Federal study shows that the East and gulf coasts of the United States may be entering a long-anticipated, prolonged siege of more frequent and more destructive hurricanes.
III. Hazard Analysis
The primary objective of the hazard analysis is to determine the probable worst-case effects from hurricanes of various intensities that could strike the region. The worst-case approach is used in the hazard analysis because of inaccuracies in forecasting the precise tracks and other parameters of approaching hurricanes. If a the "eye" of the storm were to make landfall just north of Atlantic City, the powerful "right-side" of the hurricane would bare its brunt on the New York Harbor. This is the right angle location where coastal New York and New Jersey meet, it is also known as the "New York Bight". The counterclockwise, westerly flow, gale force winds preceding a hurricane will cause rising waters to flood the Rockaway Peninsula. The resulting storm surge and wind damage would be devastating.
One of the earlier guides to describe the potential storm surge generated by hurricanes is the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale. It categorizes hurricanes based on wind speed and related damage potential. A condensed version of the scale is illustrated in Table 1.
Table 1
Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale
|
Category |
Winds (mph) |
Damage |
|
1 |
74-95 |
Minimal |
|
2 |
96-110 |
Moderate |
|
3 |
111-130 |
Extensive |
|
4 |
131-155 |
Extreme |
|
5 |
> 155 |
Catastrophic |
In a worst-case hurricane scenario for the Rockaway Peninsula, we could see a Category 3 storm (winds 111-130 mph) with damage typical of a Category 4 storm. Such a hurricane could produce flood depths that could rise as quickly as 12 feet per hour.
The Rockaway Peninsula has a year-round population of 132,000 people, including numerous critical care facilities. There are two hospitals, sixteen nursing homes and fifteen adult-care facilities. The peninsula has thirty-two miles of shorefront, with Jamaica Bay to the north and the Atlantic Ocean to the south. Extreme winds associated with an approaching hurricane will have a major impact on the operation of bridges, such as the Marine Parkway-Gil Hodges Memorial Bridge. There are only three means of egress from the peninsula. The Rockaways are subject to coastal flooding, storm surge and high wind damage. The absence of protective dunes and wide beaches increases its vulnerability. Storms that might present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in major problems in the Rockaways. The communication and transportation systems would shut down, due to the density of the population and the complexity of its infrastructure. Depending upon the intensity, approach direction and forward speed at landfall of a hurricane, a storm surge up to 30 feet above normal tide levels could be generated at some locations.
IV. Decision Making Tools
The development of a hurricane and the ensuing landfall trigger a sequence of events that may have devastating effects and consequences on a community. The hurricane/storm emergency managers are confronted with difficult decisions and require adequate tools to perform their job.
Technological advances have helped hurricane forecasting immeasurably. State of the art modeling has improved tracking and predictability. Examples of these decision-making tools include:
V. Preparedness
New York City's Mayor's Office of Emergency Management is in the process of developing a Coastal Storm Contingency Plan focusing on:
The sheltering of Coastal Storm victims starts with the identification of suitable facilities to house the nearly thirty-two thousand people projected to be affected. The American Red Cross has designated numerous public shelters throughout the borough of Queens to be suitable for temporary relocation of victims. The criteria for identifying public shelters is:
Without national support, the local chapter of the American Red Cross can only staff approximately 50% of the current inventory of public shelters.
The process of mitigating the effects of a Coastal Storm, i.e., hurricane or nor’easter on the Rockaway Peninsula depends upon the coordination of various city agencies. A Coastal Storm Mitigation effort must include transportation, communications and early notification. According to the Metro New York Transportation Study, heavy rainfall preceding hurricane landfall could severely affect critical mass transit and highway locations. The study also states that, coordinated, early decision making among governmental and transportation agencies will help ensure the success of hurricane response. These mitigation efforts can lessen the effects of a disaster and help restore the community.
Public education is an essential ingredient for the successful preparation of an impending storm or storm season. Public Outreach in the form of public services ads and print ads heighten the public awareness of a hurricane’s destructive force and the necessary precautions to protect one’s family and property. OEM has recently posted a website on the Internet, highlighting any hurricane alerts and reminding the public that hurricane season is June 1 to November 1.
The Mayor's Office of Emergency Management has recently conducted a tabletop exercise with all of the major city agencies, simulating the arrival of Hurricane Janet on the New York metropolitan area. The focus of the exercise was on hurricane planning and preparedness. The exercise was considered a success, as it help to highlight the city’s ability to cope with such an emergency.
VI. EVACUATION
The evacuation of the Rockaway Peninsula is a serious challenge to city government and OEM. The list of concerns includes:
The strategy developed to deal with these issues starts with OEM monitoring the storms when they are classified as "Tropical Depressions". Precise tracking begins when they are upgraded to "Tropical Storms". Utilizing their decision-making tools, as well as consultations with the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, OEM begins preparing for the possibility of evacuation. When there is a high level of confidence that a storm will strike, NYC will order an evacuation of the Rockaways. Evacuation procedures will be ordered well in advance of pre-landfall since the Rockaways have a limited number of egress routes and there are no coastal evacuation route signs on the Rockaway Peninsula. The three routes available are the Marine Parkway-Gil Hodges Memorial Bridge, Cross Bay Boulevard and the Nassau Expressway (878). If a storm is approaching, the Nassau Expressway will probably not be an option, since the residents of Long Beach will probably be evacuating as well. Once an evacuation is ordered, residents will be encouraged to seek shelter with friends and family outside of the inundation zone. Those individuals unable to do so will be told to proceed to public shelters.
A major obstacle to overcome is public complacency. Approximately 78.5% of current NYS coastal residents have never experienced a major hurricane. There will be unsolicited evacuees, solicited evacuees and "last minute" evacuees. Since timely evacuation will begin while the sun is still shining, residents must be educated about how quickly conditions will change as the storm moves closer. OEM will provide extensive, frequent updates about the position of a threatening storm as it approaches the area.
The evacuation of the critical care facilities and public housing developments will be a monumental task that will stretch the limits of resources. Transportation efforts must address these two separate groups. A coordinated effort on the part of the New York City Police Department, MTA surface buses, FDNY-EMS ambulances and private ambulettes will be vital for the safe evacuation of these people.
VII. CONCLUSION
New York City, and especially the Rockaways are highly vulnerable to the effects of coastal storms. Its geographic position and the lack of a deep continental shelf leave the Rockaway Peninsula susceptible to catastrophic consequences in the event of a major hurricane. Hopefully, utilization of decision-making tools will provide city officials with adequate time to ensure evacuation is completed prior to the arrival of the storm. Successful evacuation is inherent upon inter-agency and inter-jurisdictional cooperation, communication and coordination. Only through enhanced public education and community outreach will we be able to overcome the biggest obstacle to evacuation --
Coch, N. (1995). Coastal hazards: Hurricane hazards along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States. New York, Queens College, C.U.N.Y., Flushing, New York.
Federal Emergency Management Agency. (1995). Hurricane planning for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Emergency Management Institute, April 1995.
Mayor’s Office of Emergency Management. (1998). Coastal storm contingency plan: Hazard analysis. New York, New York. (Updated 4/16/98)
Mayor’s Office of Emergency Management. (1998). Coastal storm contingency plan: Risk assessment. New York, New York. (Updated 4/16/98)
Mayor’s Office of Emergency Management. (1998). Presentation to the City Council Transportation Committee. Presented on April 23, 1998. New York, New York.
Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study. (1995). Interim technical data report. New York, New York.
New York State Emergency Management Office. (1993). New York State Hurricane Evacuation Study. Conducted by the Wilmington District, U. S. Army Corps of Engineers.