From: AdmrlLocke@aol.com Sent: Thursday, August 19, 1999 5:28 PM To: undisclosed-recipients: ; Subject: GrammNet: Member's Straw Poll Analysis GrammNet Issue 8/19/99.2 Dear Friend, Following is an excellent analysis of the Iowa Straw Poll from a GrammNet subscriber who attended the event. For those not familiar with Iowa, Bettendorf and Davenport at the two "Quad Cities" on the Iowa side of the Mississippi River. (The other two, in Illinois, are Moline and Rock Island.) Another source of campaign information is The Campaigns and Elections List. Much of the information on the list comes from the liberal media, but some comes from alternative sources. The list is valuable for keeping up with political news. Here's what the owner says about it: "The Campaigns and Elections List is a daily email list providing campaign news and information with only light discussion. To subscribe see http://campaigns.listbot.com or send the message subscribe to campaigns-subscribe@listbot.com" Sincerely, David B. Levenstam, CPA, MT, MA Forbes in 2000! GrammNet is an independent newsletter, not affiliated with Senator Gramm. To subscribe to GrammNet, email me at AdmrlLocke@aol.com, with a message to the effect that you'd like to subscribe. GrammNet back issues available at http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/3390/ Steve Forbes web page (Forbes 2000) at http://www.forbes2000.com ------------------------ Nearly one percent of the entire population of Iowa gave up their last Saturday journeying to Ames to vote on Bill Clinton's replacement. I live in Bettendorf and rode a Forbes bus from Davenport to the straw poll. I heard the speeches live through Bush, then had to leave to catch the bus ride back. I've since listened to the rest on tapes of C-Span as well as commentary on Fox News and the morning shows. Here is my take on the candidates. Alexander is down and out. Quayle is finished, but remains in denial. Buchanan has lost his cultural conservative base; only last minute help from the Teamsters put him over Alexander's total. All Pat has left is the hard core protectionist vote, most of whom nationally are Democrats. The only question for him is whether he bolts to Reform party and if he does, whether he pulls more from Republicans or Gephardt Democrats. If he bolts look for some of his remaining supporters to switch to Keyes's camp, where they'll be harmless. Dole demonstrated her inability to think on her feet on Meet the Press. Her answering sentences were outnumbered by her pauses and "ahs." She'll crash and burn in any debate. Plus she suffers from an insurmountable gender gap. However her perceived success in Ames will hurt the other moderate alternatives to Bush, ie. McCain and Hatch. McCain's only plus is the media wants his suicidal campaign reform and even the media wasn't buying his excuses for not competing Saturday. The media also likes Hatch, as a frequent Clinton/Kennedy apologist, but his late start dooms him. Absent a catastrophic blunder Bush remains the favorite. Bush's greatest strengths are the perceptions that his nomination is inevitable and that he can beat Gore. Forbes is the only one I can conceive defeating an unblundered Bush. Forbes's greatest weaknesses is the perception that he can't win either race. Beating Gore should be the easier of the two for him. Forbes lacks Bush's charisma, but running against a Gore or Bradley his stump speech will beat a stump. Can a nerdy rich guy who's never held office win votes? Look at what a nerdy _kooky_ rich guy without a party did! Forbes doesn't come across as kooky, but he can use some of Perot's themes while also appealing to traditional Republican themes. He's the current gold standard for economic conservatives. For the cultural conservatives he talks the talk (his new book, _A New Birth of Freedom_, is excellent and obviously not ghost written) and he's been power walking the walk since his last campaign. As for the establishment Republicans, you'd think having the editor of a financial magazine as president would hold _some_ attraction to them... Forbes potentially could unite all the Republican factions (except the single issue pro-choice and single issue protectionists who have never fit in the party) AND pull in a lot of those outsider "We've got to fix the system, Larry" Perot types. It's easy to see how Forbes can win the general election. Winning the nomination is his challenge. Forbes needs to continue to court the Bauer forces, whose stands are similar. Bauer lacks the name recognition and will prove to lack the financing to compete with Bush; endorsing Forbes is the best chance for his issues to stay on the table. Likewise for the Keyes forces, but after being faithful to Alan's finance free campaign for 5 years I doubt they'll realize it. If Forbes can unite the social conservatives behind him along with his unmatched economic conservative credentials then we're looking at the 1976 primary campaign again. Reagan nearly upset Ford, without benefit of Forbes's checkbook. Forbes needs the field to shrink and his poll numbers to grow enough to force Bush out of the pocket and into debates. Then he has a chance, but the Bush base of TX, FL and the winner take all CA delegates will be hard to overcome.