From: AdmrlLocke@aol.com Sent: Tuesday, January 11, 2000 6:44 PM To: undisclosed-recipients: ; Subject: GrammNet: Analysis of Recent Polls GrammNet Issue 1/11/00 Dear Friend of Liberty, First I'd like to ask you to take a moment and vote for Forbes in online poll at http://www.primarymonitor.com/polls/pollrx.shtml. Currently Forbes leads the pack: Forbes 292 44% Keyes 222 34% McCain 64 10% Bush 52 8% Hatch 23 4% Bauer 6 1% Forbes took second place in poll of registered Republicans taken by The Cedar Rapids Gazette. Only 23% of the respondents said they planned to participate in the Iowa Caucus, and only 14% have attended a Republican event, such as a candidate visit, in the past year. Since a higher share of conservatives than moderates participate in the Caucuses, these liberal media polls of all voters always skew the results in favor of more liberal candidates. Bush 31% Forbes 15% Keyes 3% Bauer 2% McCain 1% Hatch 0% Even looking at the raw, skewed results, we see that Forbes is the only candidate competitive with Bush in Iowa. When we factor a typical liberal media poll bias of ten percentage points, we see Forbes slightly ahead of Bush, 25% to 21%. Even if we factor conservatively, and assume that a poll of only Iowa Republicans will have a liberal bias of only five percentage points, we still find the race at 26% for Bush to 20% for Forbes--clearly a competitive contest. Below you'll find the results of a straw poll taken at the South Carolina Christian Coalition convention. We see that Christian Coalition conservatives overwhelmingly support Forbes. The results bode well for Forbes' chances in South Carolina: Bush has most of the Establishment politicians' endorsements, but Forbes has strong support among the people who actually vote in the primary. Here in Iowa we often see the power of politicians' endorsement: former governor Terry Brandstad, for instance, endorsed Lamar Alexander for president. Lamar who? Based on the polls I've seen lately, I now predict that Bush and Forbes will run close in Iowa, each getting roughly 30%, give or take five percentage points. Keyes will come in a distant third with around 10-12% (he won 7% in 1996). Bauer, who has seen even his early single-digit numbers (9% in the Iowa Straw Poll last August) shrink as he's fallen behind Keyes in one poll after another, will place fourth, with 7-10%. Keyes has seen both his poll numbers and his fundraising rise even as Bauer has fallen. Keyes' libertarianish rhetoric apparently appeals to conservatives more than Bauer's soak-the-rich tax hike on business (totally eliminating all business deductions for property, plant and equipment), his Washington-knows-best Social Security plan (which keeps Social Security out of your hands and in the hands of Big Government), and his insane equating of homosexual marriage with terrorism. McCain will follow on Bauer's heels with 5-7%. Hatch will be the wild card in Iowa's race--at least among those at the end of the pack--and may end up in last place with 2-3%, or may shock everyone by edging out McCain. McCain's campaign seems to have peaked, as evidenced by his decline in New Hampshire and other polls. Losing to Hatch in Iowa would, despite protestations that McCain didn't campaign in Iowa, hurt him further in New Hampshire, just as a strong second-place finish for Forbes in Iowa will boost Forbes' support in New Hampshire. Something similar happened in 1996: In Iowa Pat Beltway Buchanan finished a close second to Dole, whom everyone had figured would turn Iowa into a cakewalk. Suddenly Buchanan loomed in the minds of conservatives who didn't know him well--his flip-flopping on issues, his Jew-baiting, his KKK support in Louisiana and Florida--as a viable alternative to Bob "Tax Collector for the Welfare State" Dole. Buchanan went on to beat Dole in New Hampshire. The day that Phil Gramm, the real conservative, dropped out of the race, the liberal media finally began exposing Buchanan's Klan connections. Buchanan, who already had the highest negative ratings of any Republican candidate--twice his positives--saw his support evaporate. Conservatives joined with moderates to stop Buchanan. Imagine, however, if Buchanan had had his level of support in Iowa and New Hampshire but had been an amiable fellow like Steve Forbes, with sufficient money to run a campaign in multiple states (unlike the broke Buchanan). He might have won. If Forbes can repeat in Iowa and New Hampshire what Buchanan did in 1996, Forbes will be well on his way to a serious shot at winning the n omination. Sincerely, David B. Levenstam, CPA, MT, MA Forbes in 2000! GrammNet is an independent newsletter, not affiliated with Senator Gramm. To subscribe to GrammNet, email me at AdmrlLocke@aol.com, with a message to the effect that you'd like to subscribe. GrammNet back issues available at http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/3390/ Steve Forbes web page (Forbes 2000) at http://www.forbes2000.com --------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORBES WINS CHRISTIAN COALITION STRAW POLL "Our message is resonating and conservatives are uniting behind our campaign," says Forbes ATLANTA, GA -- Steve Forbes, Republican presidential candidate, today won the Christian Coalition Straw Poll with over seventy percent of the vote at a meeting of grassroots conservative activists in Atlanta, Georgia. Mr. Forbes continues to unite the economic and social conservatives of the Republican Party. The victory comes on the heels of his endorsement by the Manchester Union Leader, the leading conservative print publication in New Hampshire. The results were as follows: Steve Forbes -- 70% George W. Bush -- 12% John McCain -- 7% Alan Keyes -- 4% Howard Phillips -- 4% Gary Bauer -- 2% Pat Buchanan -- 2% More than 500 conservative activists participated. Mr. Forbes made the following remarks: "I'm grateful for this victory. It's further evidence that our message is resonating and conservative are uniting behind our campaign. Americans are tired of business as usual -- the politics of smoke and mirrors, and broken promises. They want someone they can trust to cut taxes, save Social Security and protect life. "They don't see this from the GOP establishment candidates. We're the only campaign with a principled, conservative, outsider message. And I am the only conservative in this race that can win."