From: AdmrlLocke@aol.com Sent: Friday, January 07, 2000 6:42 PM To: undisclosed-recipients: ; Subject: GrammNet: Bush Hasn't Won Yet GrammNet Issue 1/7/00.1 Dear Friend of Liberty, First let me apologize for my prolonged absence. Then let me wish you a happy and health new year. So where's the Republican presidential race at the moment? According to the conventional liberal media wisdom, we have a race between only George W. Bush and John McCain. I'll send more on liberal media manipulation of the Republican race in the next issue, which will contain today's editorial from that conservative bastion, New Hampshire's Manchester Union-Leader. (If only labor unions had that kind of leader!) First I'd like to offer, however, a plausible analysis of how the coming race might actually present an opportunity for victory by a real conservative candidate--Steve Forbes. I have a passing acquaintance with the fellow who wrote the analysis, and while I'd tend to avoid the overemphasis of putting too much in capital letters, I find the logic behind it sound. I'd like to add to the analysis a reminder that polls conducted by liberal media news organizations always understate conservative positions and candidates by a good 10 to 15 percent. Remember, for instance that right before the Iowa Straw Poll last August, Bush was riding at about 55% in Iowa polls and Forbes down around 10%. Yet in the actual event, Bush won only 31% of the vote while Forbes gained 21%. Thus liberal media polls produced results skewed from the actual outcome heavily away from the conservative candidate toward the Big Government Republican. I'll have more on Bush's Big Government proclivities in today's third GrammNet message. According to the most recent Time magazine poll (and you can't get more liberal than that rag), Bush's support has dropped to the low 40s, while Forbes' has risen to the low 20s. If we adjust for the skew we saw in liberal media polls prior to the Iowa Straw Poll, that would place Bush and Forbes neck and neck at around 30% each. By adjusting for liberal poll skew we see then that the chances for an upset conservative victory with Steve Forbes loom larger than even my acquaintance suggests below. Remember however that the scenario, no matter how sound, can only turn into reality if we get out and support Forbes in our caucuses and primaries. Sincerely, David B. Levenstam, CPA, MT, MA Forbes in 2000! GrammNet is an independent newsletter, not affiliated with Senator Gramm. To subscribe to GrammNet, email me at AdmrlLocke@aol.com, with a message to the effect that you'd like to subscribe. GrammNet back issues available at http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/3390/ Steve Forbes web page (Forbes 2000) at http://www.forbes2000.com ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- With George W. Bush weakening in the early states -- and John McCain unprepared to run a full 50-state presidential candidate -- Steve Forbes is now in position to surprise everyone and win the GOP nomination. That's what the media isn't telling you. Here's what you should know as we head into the homestretch: 1. STEVE FORBES HAS EMERGED AS THE ONLY CONSERVATIVE ANTI-TAX, PRO-LIFE CANDIDATE WHO CAN WIN. Gone are all the candidates with so-called "experience": Dan Quayle, Bob Smith, Elizabeth Dole, Rep. John Kasich, Lamar Alexander, Pat Buchanan. Now there are two moderates -- Bush and McCain -- and only one conservative with the organization and resources to go the distance. Conservatives looking for a true anti-tax, pro-life candidate will now turn to Forbes. [Example: Gary Bauer is at a mere 1% in the polls in New Hampshire, while Forbes has climbed to 17%] 2. STEVE FORBES CAME IN A STRONG SECOND IN THE IOWA STRAW POLL. Remember how Bush's people said Bush would win the straw poll with more than 50% of the vote? But he only got 31%. Remember how Forbes began the year with 2% in Iowa? But he surged to 21%. Forbes proved his message and organization could close the gap with Bush. 3. STEVE FORBES WON THE ENDORSEMENT OF NEW HAMPSHIRE'S MANCHESTER UNION LEADER. The Union Leader was looking for a true anti-tax, pro-life conservative who could win. That's why they chose Steve Forbes. Remember, with the Union Leader's endorsement in 1996, Pat Buchanan went from single digits in the polls to winning the New Hampshire primary. Forbes is now poised to do the same thing. 4. POLLS CHANGE AND CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGERS SURGE LATE. That's what happened with Buchanan in 1996 -- but he was unprepared to capitalize on his own success. Forbes is ready. Consider the following facts: IOWA * In early 1999, Forbes was at 2% in Iowa - now he's at 22% and has "the most sophisticated campaign organization in state history," according to Time magazine. By contrast, Bush has dropped from the mid-50s to the low-40s. * At the same point in 1995, Buchanan was at 9% in Iowa and Dole was at 36%. Guess what? Buchanan nearly beat Dole in Iowa, 23% to 26% -- and Forbes is in much better shape in Iowa now than Buchanan was then. NEW HAMPSHIRE * In early 1999, Forbes was at 2% in New Hampshire -- now he's at 17%, and he's received the endorsement of the Manchester Union Leader, the state's conservative and most-influential paper. By contrast, Bush has dropped from the low-50s to the mid-30s. * In December 1995, Buchanan was at 10% (with the Union Leader endorsement) and Dole was at 42%. Guess what? Buchanan went on to win New Hampshire, beating Dole 27% to 26%. DELAWARE AND ARIZONA * Three days before the Delaware primary in 1996, Forbes was in third place with only 19% support. Dole was in first with 32% and Buchanan was in second with 21%. Guess what? Forbes won with 33% -- moving up 14 points in three days. * Two days before the Arizona primary in 1996, Forbes was in third with 18% support. Dole was in first with 26%; Buchanan was in second with 25%. Guess what? Forbes won the AZ primary with 33% -- moving up 15 points in two days. CONCLUSION Steve Forbes understands that when the GOP runs a conservative campaign based on principle, we win. When we abandon the tax and life issues, we lose. That's why now is the time to close ranks behind Steve Forbes. Forbes is the ONLY viable candidate who will SCRAP THE TAX CODE. Forbes in the ONLY viable candidate who will TRULY CUT AND REFORM TAXES Forbes is the ONLY viable candidate who will CHOOSE A PRO-LIFE RUNNING MATE Forbes is the ONLY viable candidate who will APPOINT PRO-LIFE SUPREME COURT JUDGES Steve Forbes is the only true conservative in this race who can win, and if he wins it will truly matter. He has three decades of economic experience, a deep commitment to protecting the unborn, and a vision to keep America strong and prosperous in the 21st century. Ronald Reagan made history in 1980 by defeating George Bush, winning the Republican nomination and launching a conservative revolution that changed America and the world forever. Isn't it time to make history again?