DIALOG.......................
From: [email protected]
To: "Year-in-Israel students 2002-2003"
Subject: Martin Indyk
Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 15:12:22 -0400
Chevre,
I just returned from a Washington Board of Rabbi's meeting. My Rabbi felt that since I am a Student Rabbi (I am still getting used to hearing that) I am entitled to go and the other Rabbi's there felt the same way. Ambassador Martin Indyk was the speaker. Ambassador Indyk was the US Ambassador to Israel for most of the 1990's and had some very interesting things to say. I took notes and have typed them in here to share with you all.
All of the opinions are Indyk's.
Indyk went to Israel on his latest trip about 2 weeks prior to Passover and came back just the other day. When he first arrived he found the spirit of the people to be extremely good and in his words: It was easier to be there then here. There was almost a routinization of terror, at least until the Passover Massacre. At that point, everything changed. The people seemed to rise up together and said, enough is enough. The government decided that the front lines needed to be removed from Israeli civilians and put on the soldiers.
There was the reservist call up and almost 100% of those called showed up, apparently that is not always the case. But the Passover Massacre shook everyone to their core.
Indyk indicated that President Bush has already given up on Arafat but Bush doesn't see the alternatives yet. Although, apparently some high level US official told Sharon that if you are going to get Arafat, to do it quickly. In terms of the US/Israeli relationship, Indyk is not at all worried about strains there. He said that Bush will only bend so far for the Arabs because of their refusal to denounce the suicide bombers/terrorists. But the suicide bombers are a major threat, not only to Israel but to all Arab governments as well.
An interesting side comment he made was that by calling Arafat irrelevant, makes him relevent. That the US made mistakes when they announced ahead of time that they would not see Arafat. The Arab world then "had" to get upset about it and that forced Powell to agree to see Arafat.
He believes that Powell will fail, but that Sharon understands it is vitally important that the failure cannot be blamed on Israel. Sharon understands the game and will play it well. After Powell's failure there will be more suicide bombers and then Sharon will ask the US for permission to go in again. Then he will get the okay to remove Arafat (not necessarily kill him though). At that point, Bush will call a summit and there will be 3 possibilities:
1) The US or an International body will impose a framework for peace and there will be a Trusteeship over the Palestinians.
2) Failing this, Israel will either reoccupy the territories or
3) Israel will unilaterally pull out and set up a "fence" of sorts.
He thinks that the Israeli's will have much more success working with the Tanzim, the native Palestinian Nationalists to eventually make peace. That even though they are suicide bombers today, that they believe in politics and not anarchy and will accept peace for the removal of the west bank settlements. Incidentally, he believes that 80% of the Israeli's accept the concept of two states and would quickly agree to removing the settlements.
He believes that its time for Jews all over the world to show the world that the "Jewish" street is just as angry as the Arab street. He thinks that the real problem is in Lebanon. That there is a 50/50 chance of that blowing up. Apparently Bashar Assad is young and naive and not pragmatic and may give in to Hezballah. He thinks if that blows up, it will draw Syria, Iraq and Iran into a wider war. Not pretty.
Finally, a few of his closing points:
1) Israel is in big trouble and regardless of how we feel about what is going on, it is the only Jewish state in the world.
2) Most Arab countries truly want peace with Israel because it will help with their own political survival.
3) Europeans have a romantic image of the Palestinians and they support them also because of their post WWII guilt. They are tired of feeling guilty and want to say, see the Jews are as bad as we were.
That's all I have for now.
L'shalom
Dan