Forum / Workshop on Present Economic Situation : - Crisis or Opportunity? What Strategies-?

Time / Date: 9.00 - 12.00 noon, 17th January, 98. Saturday

Venue : Plaza Hotel, Kapit Room, 1st Floor,

Expenses: $25 per participant for refreshment and Chinese set lunch

Objectives :

• Sharing of ideas on above among Bintulu Business Leaders
• Learning the use of Creativity Techniques for ideas generation
• Design your own strategies after variety of ideas

Proposed Programme :

• 1.0 Introduction
• 2.0 Participants Expectation and Concerns
• 3.0 Understanding Present Economic Situation- S.W.O.T. Analysis using brainstorming (Participants' perception using group thinking)
• 4.0 Crisis or Opportunity?
  • Fishbone Analysis - External / Internal Factors
  • Future Scenario - World / Bintulu
• 5.0 Ideas on Opportunity?
  • Concept Fans and / or PMI
• 6.0 Key Concepts and Strategies & What Next?
• 7.0 Meeting Evaluation & Learning on Creativity

Number of Participants : Maximum 20, Business leaders / owners of different types of business.

Sponsor :Plaza Hotel for use of seminar room

Organised and Facilitated by a group of Sacred Heart old students (professionals) as a service to the business community in Bintulu. Language used : ENGLISH

Interested, please Fax : Andrew Wong, 086-253804 Tel: Richard Sia, 086-315168 eMail : [email protected]

Meeting Report

Introduction:

A group of Business Leaders and professional gathered to exchange ideas on Current Economic Situation with the view of designing some useful Opportunity Concepts on 17th Jan. 1998 in Bintulu, Sarawak.

• To gauge Bintulu sentiment on current situation
• To find out "Is bottomline P/L, B/S really the problem and Focus"?
• To learn about SHOSA (Sacred Heart Old Students Association) mission.
• To learn from each other.
• To start a Change Movement, in a humble way
• Expectation of "Solutions"
• What Measures / What Strategies?

Scanning Current Environment using S.W.O.T (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threats) brainstorming technique, focusing on "Present Situation" :

Weakness W1: High inflation W2: Social Problem W3: Liquidity problem W4: Lack of confidence e.g. in financial institutions W5: Limited resources W6: Non-optimisation of available resources W7: Poor investment return W8: On going projects disrupted or abandoned W9: Cancellation of projects W10: Authority new regulation / intervention can make situation worse W11: Denial Syndrome W12: No self-reflection, examination to gauge internal strength W13: Lack of transparency on macro and micro levels W14: No G. Soros in Malaysia W15: No Clear direction from higher up W16: Business community lost direction W17: Wrong Experts' advise W18: Asian Market : Negative Chain- Effect W19: US currency as benchmark is the problem W20: Foreign Big Brothers soon in control W21: Another "Explosion" in Bintulu? W22: Bintulu : heavy dependency on a few industries or corporations W23: Bintulu property slump

Strength: S1: Availability of labour S2: Increase in export S3: People still generally have faith / hope S4: Bintulu is rather "Sheltered" S5; Cheaper properties S6: Plantation sector booming: advantage to outsiders, not Bintulu S7: Natural resources rich : oil / gas / timber S8: Possibility of big projects : deep sea port, LNG III, etc. S9: Healthy population S10: High % of professionals : intellectuals S11: I.T. brings people closure S12: Stable Government put to test. S13: We are still better off compared with Asian neighbours, hence can use them as projection and learning from their pitfall of corrective measures. S14: More awareness / catalyst groups S15: Awareness to support local products S16: US realises the importance of inter-dependency S17: Global Village, Global Community more meaningful now S18: During boom time, more unity and collaboration among Asian countries, now can use the same mechanisms to help out each other

Threats: T1: Prolong inflationary recession T2: No money to pay the bank T3: Loss of Jobs T4: Social un-rest. crime rate increases etc. T5: IMF takes over? T6: More traffic accidents T7: Suicidal problem, more medical problems T8: Increase in insurance fraud T9: KLSE CI towards 200? T10: Unknown and uncontrolled disease T11: More environmental impact: Air / water pollution T12: Bankruptcy T13: More explosion, air crashes, man-made disasters, etc. due to cost cutting ... T14: Too much emphasis on cost cutting and saving T15: Change of Government in some countries T16: Everything comes to a standstill due to cost cutting and saving drive T17: Deflation T18: RM currency further weakens? T19: Excessive competition in a few promising sectors.

World C1: Macro level - productivity below expectation C2: Macro level - not diversified market, only concentrated on Asian countries C3: Economic imbalance C4: Trade deficit increasing C5: Living beyond means C6: Lack of co-ordination / collaboration among countries C7: Poor management of resources C8: Over investment in "glorified" projects C9: So called Expert opinions are proved wrong C10: Bank : excessive salesmanship during good time with easy money C11: A few ambitious guys dominate with greed C12: Prolong good life leads to complacency C13: Lack of universal value system with shared vision C14: Excess liquidity earlier as driving force C15: Corruption C16: Dependent on foreign fund C17: Market too efficient C18: I.T. information flow in split of second, not in balance / harmony with flows of others aspects / components within the operating system e.g. economic or business. C19: Pawn to Big Brothers C20: Investment / saving Gap filled by foreign fund C21: Promotion of a few giant conglomerate C22: Power - Greed

In Bintulu context C23: Too many copycats C24: Lack of innovation / creativity C25: Not utilising information appropriately C26: Some companies too desperate to sell C27: Some leader's talk too radical and too soon C28: Too much gossip / rumour.

• 1.0 Many of the above can still be the symptoms or events description and not underlying causes.
• 2.0 Underlying Causes of Symptoms can be a) Pattern, b) Structure. In this respect little thought was expressed in this direction. This is a discipline that need a lot of practices. [Structure : is defined as anything that affects human behaviour. Structure produces certain pattern, which give rise to symptoms on the surface that become obvious]
• 3.0 Proper identification of Root Causes that are within the influence and control of the individual or organisation can produce effective result towards one's designed Future.
• 4.0 There in little or no perspective that "collectively WE ALL contribute to the larger problem". The Cause can be "us" (as individual, organisation, business, institution etc..), not just external to our field of activities.
• 5.0 Limitation and difficulties again as most expressed ideas may not be participants deep felt concerns or problem, hence the ideas remain floating speculation without anchor to Reality of the participants' environment / context.

World: 1998 - 2000 FW1: Many companies disappear FW2: New aggressive group dominate the scene FW3: Europe becomes the centre of growth : Shift from US to Europe FW4: Less fragmented market FW5: US market down 50% FW6: More Asian Unity and World Unity FW7: World Market index further down FW8: KLSE index gets pulled down further FW9: US currency no longer the benchmark FW10: More barter trade

Bintulu / Malaysia: 1998 - 2000 FB1: More insolvent companies FB2: Good shake out FB3: Decrease in Bintulu population due to migration to other places FB4: Property prices further down FB5: Bintulu people still stable and OK, even babies boom FB6: Listed companies taken over by others FB7: Bank will take lead to stimulate growth FB8: Bank better control and selective also FB9: More transparency politically.

• 1.0 There are some mis-match and contradiction between the above and SWOT brainstormed perceptions.
• 2.0 Further analysis may show that most of the expressed "Causes" in the Fishbone Analysis may still be true. If so, the future should not be dramatically different from present. If that is the case, we are all followers to other dominant change, or like floating on tidal wave, up or down, dependent on other forces, not dependent on us.
• 3.0 Not until we have compelling clear Vision, coupled with our perceived Future scenes, can we draw energy within ourselves to take effective action towards our goals / desire.

Opportunity Concepts O1: Shift / change hand of wealth O2: Take over plantation companies O3: Insolvency : single or group O4: Wider market penetration through agencies O5: Strategic alliance O6: A case: Tycoon in bad shape -> Quick Action, Leadership with credibility and innovation, Win-Win solution with bank. O7: Need Support from others e.g bank, tourism O8: Bank needs reliable signal, some constraint by Bank Negara O9: Bank / Finance to identify and support promising "sector" O10: Self Reflection / analysis : manage change O11: Human Resource management O12: Individual : From life insurance to F.D. From E.P.F. to buying house. O13: More competition in some sector, need creative competition O14: Sell Fast, Collect Later O15: Sell Cheaper, but Cash O16: Alliance and Teaming

This facilitator shared some of his thoughts on Opportunity concepts with the participants:

1.0 Alliance

2.0 Think Win-Win : Present & Future WINS

3.0 Breakout from Vicious Circle

4.0 Invent New Rules : Existing Rules are Restraining Forces

5.0 Problem Solving and Future Investment - hand in hand

6.0 Accounting into the Future

7.0 Create Sphere of Influence

8.0 "Close" the Boundary and Start Activities within Closure

9.0 Think "Cause and Effect" Loop

10.0 Elliot / Tidal Waves /Cycle - Timing to Retreat, to Prepare & to Advance (3 in One Strategy)

11.0 [Vision / Knowledge] >|< [Capital / Assets]

12.0 Think Connect / Dis-connect

13.0 ......

What Next? N1: Implement some of the ideas N2: Establish network N3: Review own organisation strength and weakness N4: Community awareness N5: Influencing people towards realistic direction through own organisation members N6: All parties to meet, to collaborate : govt. agencies, local authority, business entities, institution N7: Seize the opportunities

Participants' Learning on Creativity Tool / Techniques and Role-Play L1: Brainstorm L2: SWOT L3: Fishbone L4: Future Picture L5: Some debate and argument R1: As participants R2: Observer R3: Facilitator R4: Idea generator R5: System Thinker R6: Presenter of Worldview

Meeting Evaluation: Success Factors SF1: To know each other better SF2: Feel at ease SF3: Gain wider perspectives SF4: Good representation of various sectors / background SF5: Participative SF6: Creative SF7: Balanced world views SF8: Good time keeping SF9: Use of creative thinking tools / techniques

Meeting Evaluation: What can be Improved? I1: Time constraint I2: Get to know each other background better before hand I3: Need case study to demonstrate some concepts

End.